Crude oil price forecast: Strait of Hormuz disruption
Crude oil prices remain elevated after disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz tightened supply expectations and prompted analysts to revise 2026 forecasts higher. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party crude oil price targets and technicals.
As of 4:05 pm UTC on 19 March 2026, US Crude Oil (US Crude) is trading at $97.365 per barrel within an intraday range of $91.911–$99.400. Brent Crude Oil (Brent Crude) is at $106.219, spanning $98.511–$112.762 during the session. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Crude prices remain elevated amid ongoing disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that typically handles around 20% of global oil and LNG trade, following the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran (Reuters, 11 March 2026). Reuters reported that the strait was effectively shut, curtailing Gulf producer exports, including a more-than-50% drop in UAE output(Reuters, 11 March 2026). Adding further upward pressure, Barchart reported on 18 March that Iran stated it would target additional Middle Eastern energy infrastructure in retaliation for strikes on its own facilities (Barchart, 19 March 2026). OPEC+ agreed on 1 March to raise collective output by 206,000 barrels per day from April 2026, per the US Energy Information Administration, though analysts note that this increase may be insufficient to offset Hormuz-related supply losses while the disruption persists (U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 10 March 2026).
Crude oil price forecast 2026-2030: Analyst price target view
As of 19 March 2026, third-party crude oil predictions have been revised sharply higher in March 2026, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The following targets summarise leading institutional forecasts captured between 1 March and 19 March 2026.
HSBC (2026 annual average revision – WTI and Brent)
HSBC raised its 2026 average Brent crude forecast by $15 to $80 per barrel and lifted its 2026 average WTI forecast by $14 to $76 per barrel. The bank cites heightened supply risks and disruption to Middle Eastern export flows as the primary drivers of the upward revision to both benchmarks (Reuters, 11 March 2026).
Fitch Ratings (2026 annual average – Brent)
Fitch Ratings raised its 2026 annual average Brent crude forecast to $70 per barrel from $63, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for approximately one month before flows recover. The agency also notes an adverse scenario in which Brent rises to $100 per barrel and holds at that level, which it estimates would reduce world GDP by 0.4% after four quarters and add 1.2–1.5 percentage points to inflation across Europe and the US (Fitch Ratings, 11 March 2026).
Goldman Sachs (near-term and Q4 Brent and WTI targets)
Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average above $100 per barrel in March 2026 and $85 per barrel in April, reflecting what its commodity team describes as the largest oil supply shock on record. The bank sets its Q4 2026 base case at $71 per barrel for Brent and $67 per barrel for WTI, rising to $93 per barrel for Brent under a risk scenario in which the Hormuz disruption extends to two months (TheStreet, 14 March 2026).
S&P Global (2026 price deck – WTI and Brent)
S&P Global raised its 2026 price deck assumptions by $15 per barrel across both benchmarks, setting WTI at $75 per barrel and Brent at $80 per barrel. The agency states that this revision reflects its view that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will persist longer than initially assumed, with material uncertainty remaining around the timeline for flow normalisation (S&P Global, 16 March 2026).
Bank of America (2026 annual average – Brent, with scenarios)
Bank of America lifted its 2026 average Brent forecast to $77.50 per barrel from a prior estimate of $61, with Q2 2026 averaging $80 per barrel. The bank outlines two equally probable scenarios: a return to normal Hormuz flows by April, yielding a Brent average near $70 per barrel, or a conflict extending into Q2, pushing the average towards $85 per barrel. In an extreme case, a disruption persisting into H2 2026 could lift the annual average to approximately $130 per barrel (Investing.com, 16 March 2026).
Standard Chartered (quarterly Brent path)
Standard Chartered raised its full-year 2026 average Brent forecast to $85.50 per barrel from $70, with a quarterly path of $78 in Q1, $98 in Q2, $85 in Q3, and $80.50 in Q4. The bank flags asymmetric upside risk if hostilities expand to include further regional producers, noting that spare capacity constraints and the concentration of key transit routes leave the supply outlook highly sensitive to further escalation (OilPrice.com, 17 March 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Crude oil prices: Technical overview
US Crude Oil (WTI)
US Crude trades at $97.365 as of 4:05 pm UTC on 19 March 2026, sitting well above its daily moving-average stack. According to TradingView data, the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs run at around $82 / $70 / $64 / $64, with a 20-over-50 alignment intact, which keeps the near-term trend firmly constructive. The 14-day RSI holds at 70.73, in stretched territory, which signals strong momentum while also warranting attention should price stall. The ADX at 57.98 confirms a well-established trend, according to TradingView data.
To the topside, the nearest classic pivot resistance is R1 at $69.53, which is already below the current price. R2 at $72.03 and R3 at $78.74 have also been cleared. Price is therefore running above all standard classic pivot resistances, leaving the intraday high of $99.40 as the nearest reference level above the current price. If price moves above that level on a sustained basis, the $100 area would become another round-number reference point.
On pullbacks, the classic pivot at $65.32 represents the first structural support on a deeper unwinding, with the 100-day SMA near $64 acting as the broader moving-average shelf below. A move below that area may bring S1 at $62.82 into consideration as a lower reference level (TradingView, 19 March 2026).
This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent Crude trades at $106.219 as of 4:05 pm UTC on 19 March 2026, above its full moving-average stack. According to TradingView indicators, the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs align at around $88 / $75 / $69 / $68, with a 20-over-50 alignment intact and the current price remaining above all four moving averages. The 14-day RSI reads 77.17, firmly in stretched territory, while the ADX at 63.41 points to one of the strongest trend readings across either benchmark, underscoring sustained directional momentum.
To the topside, all classic pivot resistances through R3 at $87.23 are already below the current price, leaving the intraday session high of $112.762 as the nearest reference level above the current price. If price moves above that mark on a sustained basis, the $115 area could become another round-number reference point.
On pullbacks, the classic pivot at $70.53 sits well below current levels, meaning the 100-day SMA near $69 represents the more meaningful longer-term moving-average shelf in the event of a sharp reversal. A move below that floor may bring S1 at $67.53 into consideration as a lower reference level (TradingView, 19 March 2026).
This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Crude oil price history (2024–2026)
US Crude Oil (WTI)
The US Crude price (WTI) opened 2024 in the low-$70s and climbed towards $87 in April as geopolitical risk flared in the Middle East, briefly spiking to $87.149 on 12 April 2024 amid Iran–Israel tensions, before easing back. Prices drifted lower through H2 2024, closing the year at $71.694 on 31 December 2024, down from a spring high but broadly range-bound across the year.
2025 proved tougher for bulls. WTI peaked early at $79.607 on 15 January, then steadily declined through the year as demand concerns and OPEC+ production decisions weighed on sentiment, with prices drifting into the $57–$63 range through Q4. WTI closed 2025 at $57.350, a decline of roughly 20% year on year.
2026 has been markedly different. After opening January near $57, prices ground lower before an extraordinary move in early March: news of effective Strait of Hormuz disruption sent WTI surging from $70.741 on 2 March to an intraday high of $115.781 on 9 March 2026, one of the largest single-week moves in years, before consolidating. WTI closed at $97.530 on 19 March 2026, approximately 69.9% up year to date and 45.3% up year on year.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent Crude prices followed a similar path through 2024, rising from the mid-$70s in January to a peak above $87 in April before gradually retreating. The benchmark closed 2024 at $74.815 on 31 December, broadly flat on the year and carrying its typical premium over WTI.
Throughout 2025, Brent shed ground steadily alongside WTI, with prices easing from $81.755 in mid-January to a prolonged range in the low-to-mid $60s by year-end. Brent closed 2025 at $60.916 on 31 December, down roughly 18.6% for the year, as softer global demand outlooks and supply flexibility kept a lid on prices.
The sharp reversal came in March 2026. Brent surged from $77.793 on 2 March to an intraday peak of $116.286 on 9 March 2026, tracking the same Hormuz shock that drove WTI, before pulling back to consolidate above $100. Brent closed at $106.502 on 19 March 2026, approximately 75.3% up year to date.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
US Crude vs Brent Crude: Capital.com analyst outlook
WTI and Brent crude have staged one of their most dramatic recoveries in recent memory during early 2026, with both benchmarks more than doubling from their late-2025 lows following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The supply shock has compressed the typical WTI–Brent spread and pushed near-term prices into territory not seen for several years. For traders watching the energy complex, the speed and scale of the move underscore how quickly supply constraints can reprice a market, though they also highlight the risk of sharp reversals if diplomatic progress or alternative routing restores flows sooner than expected.
The key tension going forward is between a structural supply disruption and the broader demand picture. A prolonged Hormuz impasse could sustain elevated prices, but a faster-than-anticipated resolution, rising non-OPEC supply, or a deterioration in global growth expectations could unwind gains quickly. Traders on both sides of this market are navigating a high-uncertainty environment where headline risk remains unusually elevated, and a move below that area may bring S1 into consideration as a lower reference level.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for US Crude CFDs
As of 19 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in US Crude CFDs stands at 63.6% long and 36.5% short, which keeps it in majority-buy territory but shy of an extreme, putting buyers ahead by 27.1 percentage points. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for Brent Crude CFDs
As of 19 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Brent Crude CFDs stands at 64.7% long and 35.3% short, a slightly firmer majority-buy skew that puts buyers ahead by 29.4 percentage points while remaining below the threshold that would characterise a heavily one-sided market. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change.
Summary – US Crude and Brent Crude (2026)
- WTI trades at $97.365 and Brent at $106.219 as of 4:05 pm UTC on 19 March 2026, with both benchmarks up approximately 70–75% year to date from January 2026 opens near $57–$61.
- Both benchmarks remain above their full moving-average stacks, with 20-over-50 SMA alignments intact. WTI's RSI sits at 70.73 and Brent's at 77.17, both in stretched territory, while ADX readings of 57.98 and 63.41 respectively confirm well-established trends.
- The dominant driver is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, a waterway handling approximately 20% of global oil and LNG trade, with resolution timelines remaining highly uncertain.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
What is the crude oil price forecast?
Crude oil price forecasts vary widely because they depend on several moving parts, including supply disruptions, shipping flows, OPEC+ output decisions and the broader global demand outlook. In the article, analyst expectations for 2026 span from $70 per barrel for Brent in more moderate scenarios to above $100 in tighter supply conditions. These are third-party forecasts rather than guarantees, and they can change quickly as new geopolitical or macroeconomic developments emerge.
Could crude oil’s price go up or down?
Crude oil prices can move in either direction, and the current backdrop shows why. On one hand, supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz has supported higher prices and tighter market conditions. On the other hand, any improvement in flows, stronger non-OPEC supply or weaker global growth expectations could reduce pressure on prices. That balance means traders often monitor both geopolitical developments and demand indicators, as either side can shift price expectations quickly.
Should I invest in crude oil?
Whether crude oil is suitable for you depends on your goals, risk tolerance, time horizon and understanding of the market. Oil can be highly volatile, especially when geopolitical events disrupt supply or alter sentiment. That can create opportunity, but it also increases risk. This article is for informational purposes only and does not provide financial advice. Before taking any position, it is important to assess the risks carefully and consider doing your own research.
Can I trade crude oil CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade US Crude CFDs and Brent Crude CFDs on Capital.com. Trading commodity CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.