ASML Holding stock forecast: Third-party price targets

ASML Holding is a Netherlands-based semiconductor equipment company listed on Euronext Amsterdam, supplying advanced lithography systems used in the production of leading-edge computer chips. Explore third-party ASML price targets and technical analysis.

By Dan Mitchell47 minutes ago

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ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is trading around €1,204.15 in early European dealings on 10 February 2026, moving within an intraday range of approximately €1,177.80–€1,209.15 as of 10:04am UTC. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The stock is trading amid continued focus on ASML’s recently reported 2025 results, which showed total net sales of about €32.7 billion and net income of roughly €9.6 billion, with a gross margin close to 52.8% for the year. Trading also follows a strong fourth quarter, during which ASML reported around €9.7 billion in net sales and quarterly net bookings of about €13.2 billion, including significant contributions from EUV lithography systems that are central to advanced semiconductor production (ASML, 28 January 2026).

ASML Holding stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 10 February 2026, third-party ASML Holding stock predictions cluster in a higher band compared with prior quarters, as brokers update their views following the company’s 2025 results and record order intake. The following mini-briefs summarise six dated third-party targets and their stated assumptions over this period.

UBS (broker research)

UBS analysts raised their ASML price target to €1,400 from €1,030 while reiterating a positive stance on the shares. The team cites strong momentum in orders and earnings, with demand from logic, memory and China described as supporting upgraded profit expectations into the next upcycle (Yahoo Finance, 20 January 2026).

Morgan Stanley (broker research)

Morgan Stanley outlines a base-case ASML price target of €1,400 alongside a higher bull-case scenario implying up to a 70% share-price rise from then-current levels. The bank notes that its scenarios are driven by expectations of materially higher profits as AI-related semiconductor capital expenditure is expected to lift demand for ASML’s advanced EUV tools and supporting lithography systems (Bloomberg, 16 January 2026).

Deutsche Bank (broker research)

Deutsche Bank increases its ASML price target to €1,500 from €1,300,

maintaining a constructive rating following recent gains in the share price. The broker highlights fourth-quarter 2025 net bookings of about €13.2 billion versus expectations near €6.9 billion and suggests the outperformance could point to a material upgrade in profit potential toward 2027 and beyond (Investing.com, 29 January 2026).

RBC Capital Markets (broker research)

RBC Capital Markets lifts its ASML stock forecast to $1,625 from $1,550 while maintaining an Outperform rating. RBC references record quarterly bookings of €13.2 billion, AI-linked demand for DRAM and advanced logic, and progress on High-NA EUV technology as factors that could support continued revenue growth into fiscal 2027 (Investing.com, 29 January 2026).

Bernstein (equity research)

Bernstein analyst David Dai raises his ASML price target to $1,911 from $1,642 and retains an Outperform rating. The note references €13.2 billion in fourth-quarter 2025 bookings, a backlog rising to €38.8 billion and 2026 revenue guidance of €34–39 billion, with EUV tools leading growth while DUV demand is described as broadly stable (Yahoo Finance, 2 February 2026).

Takeaway: Across these publications, ASML Holding stock predictions generally span a range from about €1,400 to €1,500 and $1,625 to $1,911. Analysts consistently point to record bookings, a large order backlog and AI-related capital expenditure plans at major chipmakers as key assumptions underpinning their forecasts.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

ASML stock price: Technical overview

The ASML stock price is holding above its short- and medium-term moving-average cluster on the daily chart, with the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs around €1,174, €1,045, €958 and €807 respectively. The last price near €1,204.15 as of 10:04am UTC on 10 February 2026 keeps it comfortably above this band. The 14-day RSI near 63.1 sits in the upper-neutral zone, while an ADX reading around 37.4 points to an established trend backdrop rather than a range-bound phase.

On the topside, the nearest classic pivot above the market is R1 around €1,376.7. A sustained daily close through this area would bring the R2 region near €1,537.7 into focus as the next technical reference point. On pullbacks, the classic pivot near €1,147.9 marks initial support, with the 100-day SMA around €958 acting as a deeper moving-average level. A clear break below that zone would risk exposing the S1 area close to €987.0 (TradingView, 10 February 2026).

This technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

ASML Holding share price history (2024–2026)

ASML’s stock price has undergone a notable re-rating over the past two years, moving from the high-€600s in early 2024 to above €1,200 by 10 February 2026. It closed at €876.55 on 12 February 2024, traded mostly within the €900–€1,000 range through mid-2024, and then accelerated from around €661.60 on 2 December 2024 towards €984.70 at the start of 2026 as sentiment toward chipmakers improved.

During 2025, the stock broadly trended higher but with periods of volatility, finishing the year at €920.85 on 31 December. It then moved into four-figure territory in early January 2026 before extending further. By 10 February 2026, ASML closed at €1,206.65, leaving it markedly higher year on year and reflecting a strong rebound from the late-2024 lows around the mid-€600s.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

ASML Holding (ASML): Capital.com analyst view

From one perspective, the combination of price strength and a large, multi-year backlog suggests that market participants are placing weight on ASML’s central role in AI-related chip investment, alongside management guidance that points to 2026 net sales in a €34–39 billion range and gross margins of around 51–53%. From another perspective, such a rapid re-rating may leave the stock more sensitive to any disappointment in orders, capacity expansion or customer capital-spending plans, particularly if broader market conditions or AI-spending expectations shift.

Looking ahead, a key question for many participants is whether AI and high-bandwidth memory demand remains sufficient to support sustained investment in advanced lithography tools. Recent earnings updates and sector commentary have highlighted sizeable EUV-focused orders and investment plans from major chipmakers. On the supportive side, continued capital expenditure from foundries and memory producers, together with an elevated backlog, could help underpin revenues even during economic slowdowns. On the risk side, export controls, supply-chain constraints, execution risks and any moderation in AI infrastructure spending could affect shipment timing, margins or sentiment, and periods of elevated volatility remain possible if expectations diverge from delivered results.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for ASML Holding CFDs

As of 10 February 2026, Capital.com client positioning in ASML CFDs shows 95.1% buyers versus 4.9% sellers, leaving buyers ahead by around 90.3 percentage points. This places sentiment firmly in heavy-buy territory, with positioning concentrated on the long side rather than evenly balanced. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com at the time of writing and can change as clients adjust their trades.

Summary – ASML Holding 2026

ASML’s share price rose from around €680 in early 2024 to close near €921 at the end of 2025, before moving above €1,200 by 10 February 2026.
Technical indicators remain constructive, with the price trading above the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered around €1,174, €1,045, €958 and €807, while the 14-day RSI sits in upper-neutral territory.
ASML reported 2025 net sales of about €32.7 billion and net income of roughly €9.6 billion, alongside record fourth-quarter 2025 bookings of around €13.2 billion and an order backlog close to €38.8 billion.
Key uncertainties include export controls, AI and memory capital-expenditure cycles, and the risk that elevated expectations around orders and margins may not always align with delivered results, which could contribute to periods of increased volatility.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most ASML Holding stock?

ASML Holding has a broad institutional shareholder base. Its largest shareholders are typically global asset managers and pension funds, such as Vanguard Group and BlackRock, alongside other long-only investment firms that hold shares on behalf of clients and index funds. Ownership levels can change over time as funds rebalance portfolios. No single shareholder controls the company, and ASML does not have a dominant majority owner, reflecting its widely held public structure.

What is the five-year ASML Holding share price forecast?

There is no single agreed five-year ASML stock forecast. Longer-term projections vary widely between analysts and are updated as market conditions, technology cycles and company guidance evolve. Estimates often depend on assumptions around semiconductor capital expenditure, EUV adoption, margins and global demand trends. Such forecasts are inherently uncertain and are best viewed as scenario-based opinions rather than indications of future performance.

Is ASML Holding a good stock to buy?

Whether ASML Holding is considered a good stock to buy depends on individual circumstances, risk tolerance and investment objectives. Supportive views often reference ASML’s leading position in advanced lithography and its sizeable order backlog, while more cautious perspectives point to valuation sensitivity, export controls and the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry. Any assessment should weigh both potential opportunities and risks, and this information should not be taken as a recommendation.

Could ASML Holding stock go up or down?

ASML Holding’s share price can move both up and down. It may be influenced by factors such as order intake, technology developments and levels of semiconductor investment, but it can also be affected by weaker demand, regulatory changes, supply-chain challenges or broader market volatility. As with all equities, price movements reflect changing expectations and external conditions, and past performance does not indicate future results.

Should I invest in ASML Holding stock?

Deciding whether to invest in ASML Holding stock is a personal decision that depends on your financial situation, objectives and appetite for risk. Shares can provide exposure to the semiconductor equipment sector, but they also carry risks, including market fluctuations and company-specific developments. This content is provided for information only and does not constitute financial advice. You may wish to consider independent research or professional guidance before making any decision.

Can I trade ASML Holding CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade ASML Holding CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.