Precious metals continue to attract momentum as geopolitics heat up

Gold holding strong as macro forces support the hedge

Gold has continued to trade near multi-month highs, supported by a mix of macro uncertainty, real yield dynamics and central bank messaging. The biggest driver recently has been the sudden escalation of geopolitical risk around Venezuela which has increased uncertainty in global energy markets and broader geopolitical stability. The US has imposed a naval blockade and targeted sanctioned oil tankers, sharply reducing Venezuela’s exports as vessels avoid Venezuelan waters. This has disrupted shipping flows and piled up crude in storage, highlighting how political conflict can spill over into physical markets and supply reliability even if production volumes remain relatively small. In response, investors have repriced geopolitical risk, including uncertainty over U.S.–China trading relationships.

Furthermore, real yields have continued to move lower as markets increasingly price a moderate easing cycle in 2026. Lower real rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal.

In addition, persistent questions around inflation stickiness and cautious Fed commentary have kept gold bid. Even though inflation data have trended lower, markets remain sensitive to indications that price pressures may reaccelerate or prove more persistent than expected. In this environment, gold is responding not just to immediate data, but to the perception of monetary policy uncertainty.

The technical picture supports this constructive backdrop as gold has repeatedly found buyers on dips, and technical momentum remains positive as long as key support zones hold. Short-term resistance has emerged around $4,500 but the momentum remains well supported with the ascending trendline from the higher lows keeping the downside capped for now. Key support lies around $4,325 with the target for buyers at $4,550 for longer-term continuation of the bullish trend.

Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart
 
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Silver outperforms but speculative positioning continues

Silver has significantly outpaced gold in recent sessions, leading to a meaningful compression in the gold–silver ratio, a common gauge of relative strength. At face value, that outperformance might look bullish, but the character of silver’s move tells a more nuanced story.

Silver benefits from both precious and industrial demand narratives which means it is seen as a play on technology, EVs, solar demand and broader industrial growth, while also carrying safe-haven properties similar to gold. However, the recent speed and scale of silver’s advance have shifted the move into increasingly speculative territory.
This is evident in several ways. Firstly, the exponential price action which has seen sharp vertical moves with minimal retracement, suggesting momentum trading rather than fundamental absorption. Secondly, the gold-silver ratio has dropped to levels not seen since prior speculative surges, indicating silver is overperforming beyond gold’s relative macro support. Finally, heavy positioning with speculative flows in silver futures and ETFs having been robust, raising the risk of fast unwind if sentiment shifts.
In short, while silver’s long-term structural story remains intact, its near-term behaviour looks stretched, with price action more consistent with momentum and positioning than with changes in industrial demand fundamentals.

On the technical side, the daily chart continues to show heavy positioning to the upside which has been met with corrective action from sellers. However, even as the RSI dips back below 70, buyers may continue to attempt to break to new highs, with $84 as the new target. Further downside momentum cannot be discarded, with the $72 mark as the key test of support. 

Silver (XAG/USD) daily chart
 
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.