Orlen stock forecast: Third-party price targets

Orlen shares are commonly viewed through the lens of both domestic Polish market dynamics and broader movements across the European energy sector. Day-to-day price action can reflect a mix of company-specific developments, shifts in commodity markets and changes in wider investor sentiment.

By Dan Mitchell5 hours ago

Offshore oil and gas drilling platform operating at sea during daylight. — Photo: Shutterstock

Orlen (PKN) is trading around 95.45 PLN as of 12:23pm UTC on 9 January 2026, moving within an intraday range of roughly 92.93–98.37 PLN on Capital.com’s stock CFD feed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Brent crude oil has been fluctuating near $60 per barrel, extending a modest month-on-month decline in the benchmark energy contract (Trading Economics, 9 January 2026). Company-specific news flow has included Orlen’s agreement to buy a butadiene plant builder from Synthos for about 692 million zlotys, alongside ongoing updates on strategic investments in its petrochemical and energy-transition portfolio (Reuters, 18 December 2025).

Orlen stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 9 January 2026, third-party Orlen stock predictions show a range of 12-month views centred broadly around current market levels, reflecting differing assumptions about refining margins, downstream demand and Poland’s macroeconomic backdrop. These targets represent analyst opinions rather than guarantees and may change as new information becomes available.

Fintel (consensus snapshot)

Fintel reports that the average one-year price PKN stock forecast stands at 87.38 PLN, with individual forecasts ranging from 74.03 PLN to 110.25 PLN. The service places this range within the context of updated broker ratings and earnings estimates for 2026–2030, with assumptions linked to projected revenue and EPS trends (Fintel, 7 January 2026).

Simply Wall St (analyst consensus)

Simply Wall St cites a 12-month PKN stock forecast of 87.31 PLN, based on nine contributing analysts, alongside commentary that the stock’s assessed intrinsic value may differ from the prevailing market price. The platform highlights expectations for earnings growth and revenue trends, noting forecasts for modestly declining sales alongside rising profitability per share (Simply Wall St., 9 January 2026).

Investing.com (broker poll)

Investing.com’s consensus page for Orlen SA indicates an average 12-month price target of 87.31 PLN, with a high estimate of 105 PLN and a low of 73.30 PLN. These projections reflect differing views on refining margins, domestic fuel demand and regional energy-policy risks among the nine analysts surveyed (Investing.com, 9 January 2026).

Wallet Investor (quantitative model forecast)

Wallet Investor publishes model-driven projections suggesting that PKN could trade around 98.82 PLN in one year, reflecting assumptions embedded in its quantitative forecasting engine rather than discretionary broker research (Wallet Investor, 9 January 2026 ).

Third-party Orlen stock predictions cluster from the mid-70s PLN to around 100 PLN. Common reference points include refining margins, earnings expectations and developments across the Polish energy sector and broader macro environment.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

PKN stock price: Technical overview

The PKN stock price is trading near 95.45 PLN as of 12:23pm UTC on 9 January 2026, with price holding close to a cluster of the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages at approximately 94.5, 96.8, 90.5 and 83.2 respectively. This configuration points to a broadly supportive medium-term technical backdrop, although without a strong directional signal. The 14-day RSI sits near 50.5, placing momentum in neutral territory, while an ADX reading around 19 suggests a relatively weak trend rather than a sustained impulse move.

On the upside, the nearest Classic resistance lies around the 98.34 PLN R1 level, with the 100.55 PLN R2 level coming into focus only if a daily close above R1 is maintained. On pullbacks, initial support appears near the 94.37 PLN Classic Pivot, with the 100-day SMA around 90.5 PLN forming the next notable downside reference. A clear break below this zone could expose the 92.15 PLN S1 area (TradingView, 9 January 2026).

This technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Orlen share price history (2024–2026)

Orlen’s share price has trended higher over the past two years, with a more pronounced shift during the second half of 2025 as Polish equities and energy stocks moved higher. After trading in the low-80s PLN in early September 2025 – closing near 81.15 PLN on 5 September – the stock advanced into the high-80s and low-90s PLN through October, before reaching the mid- to high-90s PLN range by November. During this period, prices briefly closed above 100 PLN in several sessions.

Price action became more two-way towards year-end, although the broader tone remained constructive. PKN finished December 2025 around the mid-90s PLN and closed at 93.05 PLN on 9 January 2026, before rebounding to 95.42 PLN on 9 January. This places the share roughly 15 PLN above its early-September levels and comfortably above the base formed through much of the preceding year.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Orlen (PKN): Capital.com analyst view

The PKN stock price has spent much of the past year moving higher from the low-80s PLN into the mid-90s PLN area, with occasional extensions above 100 PLN. This price behaviour reflects a market that has, at times, been willing to re-rate the stock, while also showing periods of consolidation and pullbacks as earnings updates, company-specific news and shifts in broader risk appetite emerge.

Looking ahead, several factors could influence PKN in either direction. These include changes in refining margins, domestic fuel demand, energy-transition policy developments and movements across the wider WIG sector indices. For instance, supportive product spreads or favourable macro data could underpin prices, while weaker margins, regulatory uncertainty or risk-off conditions in global markets could weigh on valuations and increase volatility. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Summary – Orlen stock price 2026

Orlen (PKN) spent much of 2025 in an upward trend, rising from the low-80s PLN in September into the mid-90s PLN area and occasionally trading above 100 PLN during November and December.
Daily closes in late 2025 largely remained within the 90–100 PLN range, suggesting active two-way trading rather than a sustained one-directional move, with brief pullbacks towards the high-80s PLN in October before recovering.
Technical readings into early January 2026 show price trading close to key short- and medium-term moving averages around the mid-90s PLN, while the 14-day RSI remains near neutral levels, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
Intraday volatility around the turn of the year included swings between roughly 96 and 101 PLN in early January 2026, underlining that short-term price moves can be sharp even within a broader sideways-to-upward profile.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Orlen stock?

Orlen S.A. has a mixed ownership structure that includes state and institutional investors alongside free-float shareholders. The Polish State Treasury has historically been the largest single shareholder, holding a significant strategic stake, while the remaining shares are held by domestic and international institutions, funds and retail investors. Ownership levels can change over time due to market transactions, regulatory disclosures and government policy, so published shareholding data should be viewed as a point-in-time snapshot rather than a fixed position.

What is the five-year Orlen share price forecast?

There is no single, reliable five-year share price forecast for Orlen. Longer-term projections vary widely and depend on assumptions around refining margins, energy prices, capital expenditure, regulatory policy and broader economic conditions. Most publicly available forecasts focus on shorter horizons, typically around 12 months. Longer-term outcomes remain uncertain and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Past price behaviour or analyst estimates do not provide a dependable guide to future performance.

Is Orlen a good stock to buy?

Whether Orlen is considered attractive depends on an individual’s objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance. Some market participants focus on its scale, integrated energy operations and role within the Polish economy, while others place greater emphasis on exposure to commodity prices, regulation and energy-transition risks. No stock is inherently 'good' or 'bad' in isolation. Any assessment should consider both potential opportunities and downside risks, as well as overall portfolio diversification, rather than relying on price trends alone.

Could Orlen stock go up or down?

Yes, Orlen’s share price can move in either direction. Like all listed equities, it is influenced by company-specific developments, earnings results, energy and refining margins, macroeconomic conditions and overall market sentiment. External factors such as oil price movements, regulatory changes or shifts in risk appetite can also affect valuations. Short-term volatility is possible even when longer-term trends appear stable, and price movements may diverge from historical patterns.

Should I invest in Orlen stock?

This information does not constitute investment advice. Decisions about investing in Orlen shares depend on personal circumstances, financial goals and an individual’s understanding of risk. Shares can rise or fall in value, and there is no guarantee of returns. Investors typically consider fundamentals, valuation, market conditions and their own risk tolerance before making decisions. It may also be appropriate to seek independent professional advice before committing capital to any equity investment.

Can I trade Orlen CFDs on Capital.com?

Trading Orlen CFDs on Capital.com lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.