Alibaba price forecast: Third-party price targets
On 26 March 2025, the price of Alibaba (BABA) shares had increased by approximately 57.49% year-to-date (YTD) and 89.75% year on year.
In 2025, CEO Eddie Wu directed business units to align growth targets with AI integration, with performance metrics explicitly tied to execution in this area. As of its Q4 2024 earnings, Alibaba’s AI-related revenues posted six consecutive quarters of triple-digit growth.
Meanwhile, China’s economic recovery and supportive policy stance have helped restore investor confidence. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon index, which tracks US-listed Chinese companies, has climbed 15.26% since the start of the year, while the Hang Seng Index was up 17.81% YTD.
As focus returns to Chinese technology stocks, how might Alibaba’s share price respond? Here are the latest third-party BABA stock predictions and insights for 2025 and beyond.
Alibaba (BABA) price forecast: 2025–2030
As of 26 March 2025, Alibaba’s aggregate 12-month price target was $164.57, ranging from a high of $190.57 to a low of $94.66, according to 44 analyst ratings compiled by TradingView. Of 57 analysts polled, 44 rated the stock a ‘strong buy’, nine a ‘buy’, three a ‘hold’, and one a ‘strong sell’.
Meanwhile, according to Market Beat data, the average one-year price target from 15 analysts issuing Alibaba stock price targets was $144.07, ranging from $100 to $190. Among these 15 analysts, 14 rated the stock a ‘buy’, while one gave a ‘strong buy’.
Trading Economics forecasted that Alibaba will trade at $134.69 by the end of this quarter, and $133.40 by 26 March 2026.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Analyst predictions may be inaccurate, rely on historical data, and should not replace independent research. Always conduct thorough due diligence before trading, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
BABA price predictions: Analyst price views
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Barclays raised its 12-month price target from $130 to $180, maintaining an ‘overweight’ rating.
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JP Morgan analyst Alex Yao set his price target at $170, up from $125, maintaining an ‘overweight’ rating.
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Bank of America increased its price target to $150 from $117, reaffirming a ‘buy’ rating.
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Morgan Stanley analyst Gary Yu raised his price target from $100 to $180, upgrading the stock from ‘equal-weight’ to ‘overweight’.
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Benchmark analyst Fawne Jiang increased her price target to $190 from $118, reiterating a ‘buy’ recommendation.
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Bernstein upgraded Alibaba to ‘outperform’ from ‘perform’, increasing its price target to $165 from $104.
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Baird analyst Colin Sebastian set a $125 price target, maintaining an ‘outperform’ rating.
Morningstar revised its fair value estimate twice in February 2025. Analyst Chelsey Tam increased her valuation by 28% on 20 February, citing Alibaba’s share price growth, positive sentiment surrounding its Qwen 2.5-Max AI model, and Alibaba’s confirmed AI partnership with Apple for iPhones in China.
On 21 February 2025, Morningstar lifted its valuation another 27% to $168 per ADS, after company forecasts projected most loss-making businesses becoming profitable within one to two years. Tam concluded, ‘Alibaba is our top pick in the China e-commerce sector.’
What drives Alibaba’s share price?
Alibaba’s share price is influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, geopolitics, technological trends (particularly AI), and company-specific events.
Alibaba earnings and profitability
Analysts closely monitor quarterly results across core and emerging segments, including Cainiao logistics and Alibaba Cloud. Since 2023, CEO Eddie Wu has prioritised AI and efficiency in strategic planning, aiming to enhance efficiency and unit accountability. The market response to these changes is still developing. Performance exceeding expectations could lead to analyst upgrades, while execution risks might prompt caution. Earnings announcements often affect share prices significantly, reflecting not only financial metrics but strategic clarity and execution against market expectations.
AI & tech innovation
AI remains central to Alibaba’s strategy. In 2025, Alibaba committed approximately $52.2 billion toward AI and cloud infrastructure, launching its Qwen 2.5-Max model and expanding open-source initiatives. However, Alibaba faces intensifying competition from local developers and global rivals, including Alphabet and Meta. While AI-driven revenues have grown rapidly, profitability and differentiation remain key areas of concern, influencing analyst sentiment based on execution and commercialisation outcomes.
Geopolitics and trade policy
US-China and EU-China trade policy decisions can affect Alibaba’s logistics, cloud, and commerce businesses, with tariffs, restrictions, and compliance requirements influencing cost structures and market access. Tensions have eased since peak escalation in 2020, but regulatory scrutiny of Chinese tech abroad remains active.
Export controls and digital infrastructure policies may also shape sentiment. Market experts are increasingly pricing in geopolitical tail risk across Chinese ADRs, which can contribute to volatility and discounting – particularly if global institutional capital rotates out of emerging market tech.
Regulatory environment
Alibaba operates under a complex and evolving Chinese regulatory framework. Following antitrust action in 2021–2022, the firm has undertaken restructuring to improve transparency and governance. Compliance with policy objectives may help reduce headline risk and support operational continuity.
As of 2025, Alibaba's compliance posture is viewed as more proactive, though further intervention by regulators could still affect business unit profitability. Domestic regulation remains a potential catalyst for both upside and downside revisions to valuation models.
Macroeconomic conditions
Alibaba’s domestic platforms (Tmall and Taobao) are sensitive to China’s consumer cycle. Recent results such as Q4 2024 helped improve sentiment, with higher retail sales bolstering revenue. International businesses like AliExpress and Trendyol remain exposed to global demand shifts, shipping costs, and forex price fluctuations.
Potential risks include a slowdown in China's property market, inflationary pressures, or tighter monetary policies. Alibaba, viewed as a proxy for China’s broader economic health, can move with macroeconomic sentiment.
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What is Alibaba’s share price history?
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) debuted on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in 2014 and subsequently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2019, raising $25 billion in the largest IPO in history at that time.
In 2021, Chinese authorities launched a broader crackdown on large internet firms, citing anti-competitive behaviour and data concerns. Alibaba was fined $2.8bn for antitrust violations, and its share price declined sharply. From a high of $274.29 on 16 February 2021, BABA closed the year at $114.72 on 31 December 2021, and shed nearly half of its market capitalisation.
Alibaba’s share price remained volatile throughout 2022 and 2023 as investors reacted to changing market conditions, including evolving regulations, ongoing US–China tensions, and macroeconomic headwinds in China. Despite occasional rebounds, including a brief rally in early 2023 on reopening optimism, the stock largely traded between $60 and $140 on the New York Stock Exchange, and closed at $75.86 on 29 December 2023.
Recent times
In 2024, stronger-than-expected results in Alibaba’s cloud and AI segments supported BABA’s share price stability. CEO Eddie Wu’s shift toward business unit autonomy and AI-linked performance goals coincided with renewed interest in Chinese tech. The Hang Seng Index’s broader recovery also helped to lift sentiment. Alibaba closed 2024 at around $84.79, up 11.77% year on year.
As of 26 March 2025, Alibaba’s share price stood at approximately $132.24, representing an 89.17% increase from the same point in 2024 and a 56.82% rise year-to-date.
*Alibaba stock price data (NYSE) from Yahoo Finance. Correct as of 26 March 2025. Historical price data is inclusive of the effect of stock splits.
Potential Alibaba trading strategies
Trading strategies offer structured approaches to the financial markets. Here are some potential Alibaba trading strategies to consider:
- Swing trading: a medium-term strategy lasting days to weeks. Swing traders aim to profit from price swings driven by earnings, news, or market sentiment shifts. Technical indicators such as RSI or moving averages may assist with timing.
- Position trading: a long-term strategy focused on multi-month trends. Position traders may take positions based on Alibaba’s AI growth, macroeconomic shifts, or regulatory changes, aiming to capture sustained price movements.
- Trend trading: involves identifying and following a clear market direction. Trend traders use tools like MACD or trendlines to identify potential entry and exit points during trends, whether bullish or bearish.
- Day trading: a short-term strategy where trades are opened and closed within the same day. Day traders attempt to capture profits from intraday price movements.
Explore more in our shares trading guide and on our trading strategies page.