Neil Dennis"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs . . . etc". Britain's favourite poem isn't proving particularly apt in recent days as bitcoin enthusiasts seek to make sense of the dramatic losses this week.
It shouldn't be too puzzling following the stellar gains for the cryptocurrency this year - up more than 2000% to its peak last week - as to why there has been a correction.
Many will have made a killing from trading bitcoin this year. Not just on the official exchanges, but also on futures and retail trading platforms - with access free to anyone with a computer or mobile device.
Joining the rally too late
But many others, standing on the sidelines and deciding too late that they want some of the action, will have been caught on the wrong side of this trade. Here's a simple lesson for those nursing losses on bitcoin this morning.
Instead of just jumping blindly onto that bandwagon, they need take a good look first at who is driving it.
These are seasoned, professional investors who recognise all the sell signals and sell hard to maximise their profits. With light volumes at this time of year - and next week with few at all left trading - the cash-in was almost inevitable.
Beware valueless assets
Other, more fundamental, elements come into play. There's little doubt that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will eventually serve a purpose other than to provide a mesmerising game of chicken in the form of "how high can it be pushed?".
But right now, with little intrinsic value other than the costs of mining them, bitcoins can only offer the short-term thrill of a quick profit.
If anyone has made it rich this year going long on bitcoin, congratulations. It was the trade of the year. Much more volatility can be expected from here as competitors catch up and, as they did in 2000, investors realise that there's no actual value behind their investment.
This will push the volatility up even further on futures trading platforms, and one-way speculation will not cut it going forward. Timing will be everything.
