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Oil prices: Could an OPEC cut see crude return to $100 a barrel?

By Angela Barnes

12:13, 3 October 2022

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Oil - Brent
Brent Oil
76.67 USD
-0.9 -1.160%
Oil - Crude
Crude Oil
72.10 USD
-0.51 -0.700%
EUR/USD
EUR/USD
1.05566 USD
0.00504 +0.480%

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Illustration of oil prices rising
Oil prices rise as traders consider the impact of OPEC output cuts on oil prices – Photo: Getty

Oil prices jumped more than 4% on Monday following reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) is considering its biggest output cut to support the markets since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Brent crude oil price chart

At the time of writing, Brent crude was up 4.5% to $88.61 a barrel, while US crude (WTI) crude was up 4.34% to $82.90 a barrel.

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US crude oil (WTI) price chart

On Wednesday, however, ahead of the meeting, oil prices steadied as the market anticipated a possible further tightening in supply.

The oil-producing cartel is said to be mulling an output cut that would amount to as much as 2 million barrels per day to offset the recent market declines.

As recently reported by Capital.com, the intervention would not come as a surprise, however, after some members, including Iraq’s oil minister, said that the group had been monitoring the price situation and wanted to maintain market balance. In other words, cutting production again in a bid to boost oil prices would not be off the cards.

The output cut, potentially, is because crude futures have shed around a third of their value since June, with four straight months of declines, as a result of a strengthening US dollar (USD) and global economy concerns.

The group has been trying to keep the price of oil above $90 a barrel, recently cutting crude output by 100,000 barrels per day, in a bid to support prices.

Analysts at ING pointed out in a note to clients that the decision by OPEC+, however, has not appeared to have had the intended impact on the market as crude prices have continued to trade lower.

Oil - Crude

72.10 Price
-0.700% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0086%
Short position overnight fee -0.0054%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.03

Silver

23.12 Price
+1.700% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0190%
Short position overnight fee 0.0069%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.020

Gold

1,789.97 Price
+0.230% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0187%
Short position overnight fee 0.0073%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.18

Oil - Brent

76.67 Price
-1.160% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0225%
Short position overnight fee 0.0068%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.04

 

Will oil prices return to $100 a barrel?

Capital.com analyst, Daniela Hathorn, shared her thoughts on whether oil could reach the $100 mark again soon.

“OPEC+ proposal will see oil prices pick up in the short-term, but at the end of the day the longer-term outlook for oil will depend on how demand and supply are evolving and playing off each other,” she said.

Hathorn also noted that the production cuts won't keep oil prices elevated if concerns about recession and Chinese lockdowns keep the outlook for demand weak. 

“And of course, there is already tightness of supply regardless, given the upcoming European embargoes on Russian oil imports and the end of SPR releases from the Biden administration.

“So OPEC+ is just a small part of the puzzle, and whilst we may see a small spike in oil prices because of it, I still believe the longer-term picture is going to depend on how demand forecasts evolve, and the picture right now isn't supporting WTI at $100 per barrel by year-end,” Hathorn added.

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