Lithium Americas forecast: Third-party price target

Lithium Americas trades as LAC on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). In October 2024, the company finalised a $625 million investment agreement with General Motors to develop Thacker Pass. The project also received a $2.26 billion loan from the US Department of Energy.

With lithium demand projected to rise and EV market dynamics shifting, how will LAC’s share price respond? Here are the latest third-party LAC stock predictions and insights for 2025 and beyond.

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Lithium americas (LAC) stock forecast 2025 and beyond

 

When it comes to LAC stock forecasts for 2025 and beyond, most analysts have not provided five-year projections due to the unpredictability of financial markets. However, here are two algorithmically generated predictions for LAC’s future price trajectory.

Gov.capital took a bearish stance, predicting LAC’s stock price would average $2.435 by the end of December 2023, dropping to $1.51 by December 2026, $0.954 by the end of 2027, and $0.688 by December 2028. By 17 February 2030, the stock was forecasted to trade at around $0.418.

Coin Codex was also mostly bearish, forecasting LAC to average $2.74 in 2025 and rise to $3.28 in 2026, before declining to $2.83 in 2027, $2.18 in 2028, and $2.36 in 2029. However, its outlook shifted in 2030, with an expected $3.14 average price.

Bear in mind that analysts’ forecasts and price targets are often inaccurate, and should not be considered a substitute for independent research. Conduct due diligence before trading or investing and remember – past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Is Lithium Americas a good trade? 

Whether Lithium Americas (LAC) is a ‘good’ trade depends on factors such as lithium prices, production capacity, and trade policies. Rising commodity prices often correlate with increased profit margins for producers, particularly those in high-demand industries like copper, silver, and lithium. Factors such as geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs can impact lithium prices and, in turn, affect lithium-related stocks – including Lithium Americas (LAC).

Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein noted on 8 November 2024 that higher lithium prices are the biggest catalyst for LAC shares. He also highlighted support for the Thacker Pass mining facility, which has received backing from General Motors (GM) and a loan from the US Department of Energy to secure its construction. In a 7 January 2025 report, Goldstein projected that Thacker Pass would expand to an annual production capacity of 160,000 metric tons, developed in four 40,000-metric-ton phases.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the Thacker Pass  could supply enough lithium for up to 800,000 electric vehicles per year.

On 1 February 2025, US president Trump imposed trade tariffs on commodities – including metals such as lithium – imported from China, Canada and Mexico. This may contribute to higher demand for US-sourced lithium from domestic producers, potentially benefitting Lithium Americas.

According to Lithium Americas, Thacker Pass could help establish a domestic US supply chain, allowing automakers to produce electric vehicle batteries using fully US-sourced materials – potentially lowering transportation costs, supply chain risks, and carbon footprints.

While Lithium Americas has strong growth potential, its future performance will depend on lithium price trends, government policies, and the successful expansion of Thacker Pass.

Analyst sentiment: Is LAC stock a buy, a sell or a hold? 

Analysts polled by various stock ratings websites provided mixed price targets and ratings for LAC, with some recommending to ‘buy’ and others to ‘hold’.

As of 19 February 2025, MarketBeat gave a consensus of ‘hold’, based on ratings from 11 analysts surveyed over the last 12 months, with seven providing a ‘hold’ recommendation, four to ‘buy’, and zero to ‘sell’. It gave 12-month LAC price targets averaging $5.51, with a $10 maximum and $2.50 minimum.

Benzinga aggregated a 12-month price target for LAC stock from 10 analysts, averaging $6.01, with a $15 maximum and $2.50 minimum – with a consensus ‘hold’ rating.

Meanwhile, TradingView provided a 12-month LAC price target of $4.81 averaged from 12 analyst estimates, the highest was $7.61 and the lowest was $2.90. The site aggregated a ‘buy’ recommendation from 13 analyst ratings, six rated the stock a ‘strong buy’ while seven suggested to ‘hold’.

Individual analyst views include Scotiabank’s Ben Isaacson, who, on 9 January 2025, maintained a $3.00 price target and a ‘hold’ rating. On 19 December 2024, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives gave LAC a 12-month price target of $5 with a ‘neutral’ rating. Then, on 8 January 2025, BMO Capital’s Joel Jackson reiterated his ‘hold’ rating and a $3.50 price target.

Lastly, Morningstar reduced its LAC ‘fair value estimate’ from $8 to $10 on 7 January 2025, adding it viewed the stock as ‘materially undervalued’.

Lithium Americas share price drivers

LAC’s stock price movements are susceptible to influence from a variety of factors, including geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, demand for lithium, and the electric vehicle (EV) sector.

Thacker pass and US production

As one of the largest lithium deposits in North America, it is positioned to support US efforts to secure a domestic lithium supply chain. Announced in October 2024, Lithium Americas and General Motors (GM) closed their joint venture on 23 December 2024, with GM investing $625 million for a 38% stake in the project. Additionally, the US Department of Energy (DOE) approved a $2.26 billion loan to support the mine’s construction. These financial commitments enhance LAC’s prospects by securing funding for production, which is set to begin later this decade.

Conversely, any delays in construction, permitting setbacks, or cost overruns could weigh on sentiment. The high cost of US-based lithium extraction compared to global competitors is also a potential concern, particularly if lithium prices remain volatile.

Geopolitical factors and trade tariffs

In early 2025, US-China trade tensions remained a key issue, with tariffs on Chinese imports, including critical minerals like lithium, still in place. If additional restrictions are introduced, LAC could benefit from increased domestic demand for US-sourced lithium.

However, potential supply chain disruptions, rising production costs, and possible Chinese retaliation create risks. Additionally, with the 2024 US election leading to a shift in administration, future policy changes regarding mining regulations, environmental approvals, and EV incentives could introduce further uncertainty.

Demand for lithium and lithium prices

The International Energy Agency (IEA) Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 indicates that, in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, mineral demand for clean energy technologies is expected to almost triple by 2030. However, lithium demand specifically is projected to increase more than 40 times by 2040. This long-term outlook potentially supports LAC’s growth potential, as the company is positioned to supply a growing market.

However, short-term lithium prices have been volatile. After record highs in 2022, prices fell sharply in 2023 and early 2024 due to an oversupply in China and slowing EV sales in some markets. While some analysts expect lithium prices to recover as demand outpaces supply, the IEA suggests that today's well-supplied market may not be a good guide for the future, as demand for critical minerals continues to rise in all IEA scenarios. It almost triples by 2030 and quadruples by 2040 in the NZE Scenario. This could support long-term LAC margin growth but also introduce uncertainty in the near term.

Electric vehicles and net-zero targets

Governments in the US, Europe, and China continue to push net-zero targets, but early 2025 EV sales have been mixed. China is set to sell 12 million EVs this year, while Europe has slowed, partly due to subsidy cuts​. In the US, policy uncertainty under Trump, including the revocation of the $7,500 federal tax credit for EV purchases, could weigh on demand​ for lithium – potentially impacting LAC’s share price.

Meanwhile, automakers are developing alternative batteries, such as sodium-ion and solid-state, with Toyota set to start producing solid-state powered EVs in 2026​. While these offer potential cost and efficiency benefits, they are still in development. If widely adopted, they could weaken long-term lithium demand, introducing risks in LAC’s growth strategy.

Lithium Americas stock price history

Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results

LAC's share price faced a downward trend in late 2023, after Lithium Americas completed a corporate separation, splitting into two entities – Lithium Americas (LAC) and Lithium Argentina (LAAC) – on October 3, 2023. After falling to $5.8 on 13 December 2023, LAC closed the year at $6.4 on 29 December 2023.

LAC opened 2024 at $6.36 per share. Lithium Americas’ stock price continued to face challenges and fluctuated throughout the year. It reached a high of $7.65 on 14 March 2024, but also saw a significant low of $2.02 on 5 August 2024. LAC closed 2024 at $2.97, representing a substantial annual decline of approximately 53.59%.

As of February 20, 2025, LAC's stock price is around $3.0.

Shares trading strategies to consider

Trading strategies provide a structured, disciplined approach for traders in the financial markets, which can be unpredictable. Choose a trading strategy that suits your individual preferences, risk tolerance, and potential time commitment.

• Trend trading is a variable-term strategy, which lasts as long – or short – as the prevailing trend. Trend traders use technical analysis tools like moving averages and relative strength index (RSI) to analyse price movements and gauge a trend’s potential duration.
• Day trading is a shorter-term strategy, starting and concluding within a single trading session. Day traders aim to capture gains from intraday price fluctuations, over multiple trades.
• Position trading is a longer-term strategy, lasting months or even years. Position traders prioritise broader market movements and fundamentals over shorter-term trends.
• Swing trading is a medium-term strategy, lasting days or weeks. Swing traders use technical and fundamental analysis to inform entry and exit points, and identify potential price patterns.

Discover more trading strategies and guides on our trading strategies page.

Risks and rewards to shares trading

Shares trading presents potential opportunities, but it also comes with risks. Understanding the stock market is key to making informed trading decisions.

Price volatility

LAC’s share price is subject to volatility, influenced by lithium market trends, EV demand, regional supply factors, and geopolitical factors. Price fluctuations can present trading opportunities but also increase downside risks.

Broader market trends

Lithium demand is closely tied to global decarbonisation efforts, supply chain constraints, and government incentives. While long-term projections remain positive, slowing EV sales or changing battery technologies could impact trader sentiment.

Historical price correlations

LAC’s price has historically been influenced by lithium spot prices and broader commodity cycles. Tracking these trends can provide insight into potential price movements but does not guarantee future performance.

Risk management

Using stop-loss orders, position sizing, and risk-reward ratios can help traders limit or mitigate losses and manage exposure. Monitoring company updates and macroeconomic shifts is also key to managing risk exposure.

Macroeconomic conditions

Interest rates, inflation, and government policies – particularly trade restrictions or mining regulations – can impact LAC’s valuation. Currency fluctuations should also be considered, as they may affect the company’s financial performance.

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