BASF stock forecast: Buyback and sector demand
BASF reported Q1 2026 sales of €16.0bn and EBITDA before special items of €2.356bn, while its €1.5bn buyback continued through June 2026. Explore third-party BAS price targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
BASF SE (BAS) is trading at €51.25 in afternoon European trading on 1 June 2026, near the top of the session’s €50.42–€51.31 intraday range, with the last price sitting just below the intraday high as of 12:11pm UTC. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Sentiment around the stock has been shaped by several factors. BASF's Q1 2026 quarterly statement, published on 29 April 2026, recorded sales of €16.0bn, down approximately 3% year-on-year, with EBITDA before special items of €2.356bn versus €2.495bn in Q1 2025 (BASF, 30 April 2026). The company's ongoing share buyback programme, running from November 2025 through June 2026 with a volume of up to €1.5bn, may provide a structural source of demand for the stock (BASF, accessed 1 June 2026). At the same time, broader European chemical sector sentiment remains cautious amid weak end-market demand, Chinese export competition, and elevated energy costs. Deutsche Welle reported that these factors had compressed German chemical industry revenue by around 22% since 2022 to roughly €220bn in 2025 (Deutsche Welle, 18 May 2026). European equities ended broadly steady on 27 May 2026, with chemical and auto sector gains offsetting continued uncertainty around the Iran conflict's impact on energy markets (Reuters, 27 May 2026).
BASF third-party outlook: Q1 results, buyback and demand
As of 1 June 2026, third-party BASF stock predictions span a wide range, reflecting diverging views on the pace of the European chemicals-cycle recovery, energy-cost dynamics, and the company's structural cost programme. The following targets summarise active broker and consensus estimates issued in that period.
JP Morgan (Underweight, €40 target)
JP Morgan analyst Chetan Udeshi carries an Underweight rating on BAS, raising the price target to €40 from €36 while keeping the most cautious active stance among recently publishing brokers. The rating reflects scepticism around near-term earnings recovery, with concerns centred on weak demand visibility across core chemical end-markets and the currency headwinds identified in Q1 2026 results (Finanzen.net, 22 May 2026).
Jefferies (Hold, €49 target)
Jefferies analyst Marcus Dunford-Castro maintains a Hold rating on BAS, raising the price target to €49 from €43 while placing it in the middle of the active broker spectrum. The rating reflects a broadly neutral stance, with the firm indicating it sees limited near-term catalysts while acknowledging that the company's restructuring progress provides some downside support (Finanzen.net, 20 May 2026).
Deutsche Bank (Buy, €60 target)
Deutsche Bank analyst Virginie Boucher-Ferte reiterates a Buy rating on BAS with an unchanged 12-month price target of €60. Boucher-Ferte describes the stock as attractively valued at prevailing prices, with the continued share buyback programme running at up to €1.5bn through the end of June 2026 providing a structural demand tailwind for the shares (Finanzen.net, 29 May 2026).
Goldman Sachs (Buy, €65 target)
Goldman Sachs analyst Georgina Fraser lifts the firm's 12-month BAS price target to €65 from €63, reaffirming a Buy rating. Fraser cites an upward revision to her Q1 2026 EBITDA estimate, placing it approximately 5% above the then-prevailing consensus, alongside confidence in BASF's cost reduction delivery as the core rationale for the most constructive target among active covering brokers (MarketScreener, 11 May 2026).
MarketScreener (broker consensus)
MarketScreener's running consensus tracker records an average 12-month price target of €52.98 across the active broker panel, with individual estimates ranging from €40 to €65. The spread to the consensus mean from the last close price of €50.82 stands at approximately 4.2%, with the wide dispersion reflecting continued disagreement among analysts on the timing and scale of any chemicals-cycle upswing (MarketScreener, 31 May 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
BASF latest earnings and upcoming reporting dates
BASF reported Q1 2026 results on 29 April 2026, recording group sales of €16.0bn, down 3.0% from €16.5bn in Q1 2025, with EBITDA before special items falling 5.6% year-on-year to €2.356bn from €2.495bn in the prior-year period (BASF, 30 April 2026). The company attributed the revenue decline primarily to strong adverse currency headwinds, which more than offset solid volume growth across core segments (BASF.com, 30 April 2026).
Chief Financial Officer Dr Dirk Elvermann described the trading environment as 'demanding' while noting that volume momentum had held up, and said any revision to the company's full-year 2026 outlook at the Q1 stage 'would have been arbitrary', signalling that management retained its full-year guidance range (MarketScreener, 30 April 2026). BASF's full-year 2026 EBITDA before special items guidance, issued in February 2026, stands at €6.2bn–€7.0bn, with the midpoint of approximately €6.6bn noted at the time as trailing the Jefferies consensus estimate (Investing.com, 27 February 2026).
BASF is scheduled to publish its Q2 2026 results and half-year report on 30 July 2026, which will be the next scheduled opportunity for management to update or revise full-year guidance in light of second-quarter trading conditions, currency movements, and the evolving macro and energy-cost environment (Reuters, 30 April 2026).
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
BAS stock price: technical overview
The BAS stock price trades at €51.25 as of 12:11pm UTC on 1 June 2026, below the bulk of its short- and medium-term moving averages. The 20/50/100/200-day SMAs stand at approximately €52 / €52 / €50 / €47, per TradingView data. The price is currently below the 20- and 50-day SMAs but above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, suggesting a mixed structural picture rather than a clear trending environment.
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reads 44.45, a lower-neutral reading that reflects the absence of clear directional momentum in either direction. The average directional index (ADX) at 24.03 sits just below the conventional 25 threshold that would signal an established trend, suggesting the current move lacks strong conviction, according to TradingView’s oscillator readings.
On the classic pivot framework, the pivot point (P) at €51.74 sits just above the last price and acts as the nearest reference level. A sustained move back through this level would bring R1 at €53.40 into view. To the downside, S1 at €49.16 is the next classic pivot reference, with the 100-day SMA near €49.78 forming a broader support shelf in that area.
The Hull moving average (9) at €50.74 sits marginally below the last price, while the Ichimoku base line at €52.51 aligns with the short-term SMA resistance cluster overhead (TradingView, 1 June 2026).
This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
BASF share price history (2024–2026)
BAS’s stock price opened June 2024 trading near €48, having pulled back from levels above €49 earlier that spring. The stock drifted lower through the summer and into autumn 2024, bottoming around €40–€41 in early August amid a broad equity sell-off and persistent concerns over weak European chemicals demand and high energy costs. A partial recovery followed, with BAS moving back toward €47–€48 by late October, before fading again into the year-end close of €42.58 on 30 December 2024.
The stock entered 2025 near €44, climbed to a local peak around €54–€55 in early March, then reversed sharply. US tariff announcements in early April 2025 weighed on European industrials, pushing BAS down to an intraday low of €37.52 on 7 April, one of the weakest prints in the two-year window. A recovery gathered pace through late April and May, though momentum faded over summer, with the stock consolidating in the €42–€48 range.
Into 2026, BAS dipped as low as €43.77 in January before a sharp rally carried the stock to a two-year high of €55.14 on 14 April, coinciding with improving European macro sentiment and BASF’s buyback programme. A subsequent pullback brought BAS back toward current levels.
BAS closed at €51.23 on 1 June 2026, approximately 14.1% higher year to date and 20.7% above its close of €42.43 on the equivalent date in 2025.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Share prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.
BASF (BAS): Capital.com analyst view
BAS has posted a notable year-to-date recovery in 2026, rising from around €44.84 at the start of January to €51.25 as of 1 June 2026. Several structural factors have supported the move, including BASF’s expanded cost-cutting programme, which now targets annual savings of €2.3bn by the end of 2026 versus an earlier goal of €2.1bn. The ongoing share buyback of up to €1.5bn has also contributed to the view that management is working to improve returns.
For investors focused on cyclical recovery, the return to volume-led growth in Q1 2026, despite the currency drag, represents a potential positive. That said, BASF’s full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance range of €6.2bn–€7.0bn remains wide, reflecting uncertainty around energy costs, Chinese overcapacity, and the trajectory of global chemicals demand. The guidance midpoint also trails analyst consensus, which remains a point of contention among more cautious voices. Currency headwinds, structural competitiveness pressures in Europe, and execution risk on restructuring continue to weigh on sentiment for some market participants.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for BASF CFDs
As of 1 June 2026, Capital.com client positioning in BASF CFDs stands at 88.9% buyers versus 11.1% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 77.8 percentage points. This indicates a strong skew toward long positions among Capital.com clients at the time of writing. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change.
Summary – BASF 2026
- BAS trades at €51.25 as of 12:11pm UTC on 1 June 2026, up approximately 14.1% year to date from €44.84 at the start of January 2026.
- Key drivers include BASF’s expanded cost-cutting target of €2.3bn annually, an ongoing share buyback of up to €1.5bn, and a wide full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance range of €6.2bn–€7.0bn.
- Macro headwinds persist, including adverse currency effects, weak European chemicals demand, Chinese overcapacity, and uncertainty around energy costs and the Iran conflict.
- Q1 2026 results showed sales of €16.0bn, down 3.0% year-on-year, with EBITDA before special items at €2.356bn. Full-year guidance was left unchanged.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most BASF stock?
BASF’s shareholder base is widely held, so ownership can change over time as institutional investors update their positions. Large asset managers and institutional funds may appear among the biggest shareholders, while a substantial portion of the free float can sit with private and retail investors. Traders should check BASF’s latest shareholder disclosures, annual report or regulated filings for the most current ownership data, as third-party databases may update at different times.
What is the five- year BASF share price forecast?
Five-year BAS stock forecasts are highly uncertain because they depend on variables that can change significantly, including chemical demand, energy costs, currency movements, restructuring progress and broader equity-market conditions. The article focuses on shorter-term 12-month analyst targets, which ranged from €40 to €65 in the cited period, with a MarketScreener consensus of €52.98. Longer-term projections should be treated as scenarios, not reliable predictions.
Is BASF a good stock to buy?
Whether BASF is a good stock to buy depends on individual objectives, risk tolerance and market view. The company has factors that some analysts may view positively, including its cost-cutting programme, buyback and volume growth in Q1 2026. However, risks remain, including weak European chemicals demand, Chinese overcapacity, currency headwinds and energy-cost uncertainty. This information is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold BASF stock.
Could BASF stock go up or down?
Yes. BASF stock could move in either direction. A stronger chemicals-cycle recovery, improved volumes, lower energy costs or progress on cost savings could support the share price. Conversely, weaker demand, adverse currency effects, higher input costs, or slower restructuring progress could weigh on the stock. Analyst targets also show a wide range of views, from €40 to €65, underlining the uncertainty around future price movements.
Should I invest in BASF stock?
The decision to invest in BASF stock depends on your financial situation, investment goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk. BASF offers exposure to the global chemicals sector, which can be cyclical and sensitive to energy prices, industrial demand and currency movements. Before making any decision, consider independent research and, where appropriate, speak to a qualified financial adviser. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Can I trade BASF CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade BASF CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.