Analysts flag Occidental's soft Q4 oil guidance, see debt progress as bright spot

** US shale producer Occidental Petroleum OXY.N surpasses Wall Street expectations for Q3 profit, as higher oil prices help offset a decline in production

** The Houston-based shale producer posted an adjusted profit of $1.91 per share for the three months ended September 30, compared with expectations of $1.46, according to data compiled by LSEG

** For the current quarter, the company forecast production between 1.43 million and 1.47 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), with output from the Permian Basin expected to average in the range of 820,000 to 840,000 boepd

** The company's average realized price jumped 32.6% to $85.91 per barrel for the three months ended September 30

WEAKER Q4 OIL OUTLOOK, DEBT REDUCTION IN FOCUS

** JEFFERIES ("hold", PT: $60) says Q4 oil production outlook of about 703,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) was below the Street estimate of 727,000 bopd, largely due to lower Gulf of Mexico volumes, which were affected by a third-party gas pipeline constraint and a hurricane, while production-sharing contract mechanics also weighed on oil output

** It adds that OXY has achieved its $10 billion principal debt target and set a new goal of $6 billion, with share buybacks expected to resume once the company reaches a net-cash position

** TRUIST SECURITIES ("hold", PT: $64) says OXY's implied Q4 oil production was about 3% below consensus estimates

** The brokerage says deleveraging could accelerate the company's $4 billion sustainable cash flow improvement, with additional interest cost savings as the original plan was based on a principal debt target of $10 billion

** RAYMOND JAMES ("outperform") says Q4 production guidance was about 2% below its estimate and 1% below the Street, reflecting Gulf downtime, international production-sharing contract effects and temporary timing impacts on Permian oil volumes