Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast: third-party Tesla price target

Tesla is an electric vehicle manufacturer, widely credited for its 2008 Roadster, which paved the way for the modern EV industry. Its founder and CEO – Elon Musk – is also known for launching SpaceX, acquiring Twitter (now called ‘X’) and being an advisor to Donald Trump.

We examine Tesla stock price predictions for 2025 and beyond, with insights from third-party analysts and market experts.

Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast for 2025 and beyond

When it comes to Tesla forecasts for 2025 and beyond, as of 11 February 2025, Morningstar analyst and equities strategist Seth Goldstein maintained a $250 ‘fair value estimate’ for Tesla, rating it ‘overvalued’ at current prices with a ‘narrow moat’ (indicating limited competitive advantages).

TipRanks gave Tesla a ‘hold’ on 19 February 2025 based on 35 stock market analysts’ ratings, of whom 13 recommended ‘buy’, 10 ‘sell’ and the remaining 12 ‘hold’. On average, the analysts anticipated Tesla could trade at $340.50 in 12 months, based on forecasts ranging from $24.86 up to $550.

On 19 February 2025, TradingView predicted that Tesla could trade at $2,379.31 in 12 months, calculated by averaging price predictions from 40 analyst sources. The highest prediction was $1,000 and the lowest $135. The aggregate rating was ‘neutral’, reflecting a mixed outlook among 54 analysts.

Looking further ahead, Gov Capital provided a five-year forecast on 18 February 2025, anticipating a $1,359.56 average Tesla stock price on 17 February 2030.

It’s worth remembering that these are just analyst forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Tesla (TSLA) stock predictions: analysts’ price target view

Tesla (TSLA) stock predictions and analysts’ price target views developed in early 2025 following Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, which had an immediate impact on the stock market. Meanwhile, Tesla speculation soared due to Elon Musk’s position as Trump’s advisor, alongside challenges from China-based competitors – but how might these factors shape Tesla’s stock price in 2025 and beyond?

On 10 February 2025, Chinese automaker BYD announced that it would offer AI-powered driving assistance software – rivalling Tesla’s own offering – for free across all its electric vehicles (EVs). Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein believes that BYD’s offering: ‘likely limits Tesla’s ability to charge a higher price for FSD at least in the near to medium term.’ 

Goldstein also considers Tesla to be at a disadvantage in China compared with competitors such as BYD, due to Robotaxi competition and regulatory limits on transferring driving data outside of China.

On 11 February 2025, a team of UBS analysts led by Patrick Hummel said in a note to investors that BYD’s announcement: ‘could be a game changer, particularly in the affordable segment… [and] increase BYD's competitive edge over legacy competitors… next to Tesla, Volkswagen is potentially most negatively affected by BYD’s move.’

Meanwhile, Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro lowered his price target from $492 to $474, due to Musk’s activity in the political sphere. Elon Musk currently heads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), not to be confused with the DOGE cryptocurrency, which Musk has previously advocated for. As a result, Gengaro said: ‘Opinions on CEO Elon Musk have taken a turn for the worse along political affiliations.’

Oppenheimer senior research analyst Colin Rusch maintained a ‘perform’ rating on Tesla stock, with a ‘neutral’ outlook. In an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, Rusch mentioned challenges facing Tesla, including competitors such as Waymo and ‘the field of auto OEMs’. Regarding Tesla’s market positioning in the autonomous driving space, Rusch concluded that ‘Tesla is not going to run away with this market’.

Tesla (TSLA) stock price drivers

Here are some of the Tesla (TSLA) stock price drivers that could impact traders in the coming years, according to market analysts:

Elon Musk’s relationship with Donald Trump

Elon Musk is an avid supporter of Donald Trump, and he was appointed as head of the DOGE (or ‘Department of Government Efficiency’). Around election time, late-2024, analysts speculated on how this might impact the Tesla stock price. Policy changes brought about by changes in government can have a significant impact on share prices, particularly for companies whose leaders have political ties, such as Musk.

For example, Tesla shares rose after a February 2025 interview on Fox News, where president Trump and Elon Musk discussed their conflicts of interest, according to Barron’s.

However, Tesla’s performance may be negatively impacted by policy decisions enacted by the US administration, despite Elon Musk’s professional relationship with Donald Trump. For example, on 19 February 2025, US president Trump announced 25% tariffs that would affect automakers.

Geopolitical tensions

Geopolitical tensions, such as the Ukraine-Russia war and trade tariffs issued under president Trump, can directly affect procurement of key manufacturing materials and market expansion in affected countries – which can influence the Tesla stock price.

Associate editor at Barron’s Al Root noted that: ‘About 15% of the parts in a Model Y sold in the US come from Mexico. Some come from Canada too, though the amount is hard to pin down.’

As seen in early 2025, for example, when US president Trump announced trade tariffs impacting the price of metals, including lithium – a raw material used in the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries – a key component in EVs.

Innovation and competition

Product announcements, advancements in battery technology and developments in autonomous driving features can significantly impact trader sentiment and the Tesla stock price.

Tesla is a pioneer in the EV industry, but the sector has grown more competitive since it was founded. Traditional automakers like Volkswagen and General Motors are shifting their focus into EV technology, while competitors like Rivian and BYD have gained market share.

Tesla's ability to maintain its technological edge, expand production capacity and introduce new models – like the Cybertruck and Semi – may help it maintain relevance in the US, but may face difficulties abroad. Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein stated that: ‘Tesla is likely disadvantaged in the Chinese market versus local companies, such as BYD and DeepSeek,’.

Shareholders’ response to Tesla news

In November 2024, Tesla had a market capitalisation worth $1.087 trillion¹, over 2,200% larger than that of Ford Motor, which was $43.307 billion².

A larger market capitalisation usually means that there are more shareholders, which brings increased scrutiny upon positive or negative news – such as product announcements and delivery reports. This could potentially result in greater potential for significant price changes during such events.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives observed how delivery performance can impact Tesla’s success. Regarding the Q3 2024 delivery report, which came in close to market expectations, he said that it’s something ‘we would characterize as good and a mini step in the right direction’ and ‘upside expected.’

For example, Tesla’s Q1 2023 and Q3 2021 earnings resulted in a significant increase in share price during their release months. Conversely, the Tesla price decreased after its April 2024 delivery report came out and numbers fell below expectations.

Want to learn more about Tesla stock price drivers?
Check out our comprehensive trader’s guide to Tesla for additional factors which could influence Tesla’s stock price and more.

Interested in IPOs? Learn more about recent IPOs like the ARM IPO and their impact on the financial markets.

What is the Tesla stock price history?

The Tesla stock price history shows its remarkable volatility and growth since its 2010 IPO. Here’s an overview of Tesla’s price journey:

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

IPO and early years (2010-2012)
Tesla went public on 29 June 2010, pricing its IPO at $17 per share and closing its first trading day at $23.89. However, early trading was turbulent, with the price dropping to an all-time low closing price of $1.05* on 7 July 2010. Market sentiment remained cautious until Tesla’s first profitable quarter in 2013.

Growth period (2013–2019)
In April 2013, Tesla rallied after posting its first quarterly profit. By September 2013, shares reached $12.89*, marking a turning point. However, the stock faced setbacks due to incidents like Model S fire reports and production challenges, reflecting the growing pains of a disruptive automaker. Tesla stock began gaining momentum in 2019, fueled by increasing EV adoption and successful product launches like the Model 3.

Pandemic era (2020)
Tesla’s growth accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite global economic challenges, the company’s shares surged as it became the world’s most valuable automaker by market capitalisation in June 2020, surpassing Toyota. In December, Tesla was added to the US 500, further boosting investor confidence. Shares closed the year at an impressive $235.22*.

Peak and volatility (2021 – 2022)
Tesla continued to grow, reaching an all-time high of $409.47* in November 2021. This was driven by strong delivery numbers and increased global demand for EVs. However, the stock experienced volatility due to concerns over production delays and chip shortages, closing the year slightly lower.

While Tesla reported record vehicle deliveries and revenue growth, its stock price declined in 2022, ending the year 65% down. The 3-for-1 stock split in August and Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter (now X) contributed to trader concerns, while rising interest rates and persistent inflationary pressures weighed heavily on the broader market, affecting Tesla’s valuation.

Recent years (2023–2024)
2023 was characterised by significant swings in the Tesla stock price. In the first half, shares surged by over 150%, buoyed by optimism surrounding Tesla’s expansion in autonomous driving technology. However, the rally lost steam due to disappointing delivery numbers and a large-scale recall of nearly 200,000 vehicles. Tesla shares ended the year lower, reflecting concerns about declining automotive sales and production delays caused by persistent semiconductor shortages.

A significant turning point came after the US presidential election in November 2024. Tesla's stock experienced a significant uplift, with shares rising more than 46% between 5 November and 5 December 2024, closing the year at $403.84. This rally was attributed to Elon Musk's increased prominence in Washington and speculation about potential benefits for Tesla under the new administration.

Despite this surge, Tesla's stock remained volatile. By 14 February 2025, the share price had retreated to $355.84, representing an approximate 27.16% decline from its $488.54 peak on 18 December 2024 – which highlighted ongoing investor uncertainty around Tesla's future prospects and valuation.

As of 19 February 2025, Tesla's stock continues to be considered significantly overvalued by some analysts. Morningstar, for instance, maintains a fair value estimate of $250 per share, despite the recent price fluctuations.

*All stock prices mentioned are adjusted for splits and dividends.

Interested in how companies like Tesla go public and what it means for traders? Learn more in our IPO guides.

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Share trading strategies to consider

Here are some share trading strategies to consider. Whether you trade Tesla or any other shares – choose a strategy aligned with your risk tolerance, time commitment and market knowledge.

Trend trading strategy

Trend traders analyse price movements over a specific period, identifying trends with technical analysis tools like moving averages, relative strength index (RSI) and chart patterns to gauge trends.

• Bullish example – traders may look for an upward trend characterised by higher highs and higher lows and go long on Tesla when the price breaks above a resistance level.
• Bearish example – traders could identify a downward trend with lower highs and lower lows and decide to short Tesla shares when the price breaks below a support level.

Trend trading aims to leverage prolonged price movements, enabling traders to align with the prevailing market direction while managing entry and exit points effectively.

Day trading strategy

Day traders execute multiple trades in a single trading session, lasting one day or shorter, aiming to profit from intraday price volatility.

• Bullish example – traders might buy Tesla shares during an intraday breakout above a key resistance level, closing the position before the session ends.
• Bearish example – traders may short Tesla shares during an intraday breakdown below a support level, profiting from quick price drops.

Day trading seeks to exploit Tesla’s intraday price movements by taking advantage of short-term volatility and executing trades, using technical analysis to identify potential support and resistance levels.

Position trading strategy

Position traders focus on broader market trends and fundamentals instead of short-term price movements, often holding positions for months up to a year.

• Bullish example – traders could open a long CFD position on the price of Tesla based on long-term growth drivers, such as innovation in autonomous vehicles.
• Bearish example – traders might open a short CFD position on the price of Tesla based on long-term challenges, such as increased competition or regulatory hurdles.

Position trading aims to profit from significant price changes over time, potentially making it suitable for traders who are aligned with Tesla’s macro trends and potential long-term value shifts.

Swing trading strategy

Swing traders hold positions over a period of days to weeks, aiming to profit from short- to medium-term price fluctuations.

• Bullish example – after a price dip to a support level, swing traders might open a long position on Tesla, expecting the share price to bounce and continue rising.
• Bearish example – if the Tesla price drops to a resistance level, a trader might open a short position on Tesla, anticipating a reversal and price drop.

Swing trading seeks to benefit from market ‘swings’ by identifying price patterns and timing trades accordingly, often involving both technical and fundamental analysis.

Want to learn more about trading strategies?
Read our comprehensive guides to trading strategies for lots of examples and ideas.

What are the Tesla stock risks and rewards?

The Tesla stock risks and rewards present unique opportunities and challenges for traders, including:

Innovation and technological leadership

Tesla is widely regarded as a pioneer in the electric vehicle (EV) market due to its innovations including batteries, autonomous driving and energy storage.

Potential rewards:

• Tesla’s sustained focus on innovation helps it stay ahead of competitors.
• New product launches like the Cybertruck and advancements in autonomous driving with the Robotaxi could significantly boost revenue streams and market share.

Potential risks:

• Innovation has inherent risks.
• Product delays, underwhelming technology updates and failures to meet market expectations could erode Tesla’s reputation and market sentiment.
• Competitors catching up to, or surpassing, Tesla’s technology could also erode its share price.

Global EV market growth

As the world shifts toward sustainable transportation, Tesla’s global expansion could remain as a long-term growth driver.

Potential rewards:

• Growing presence in regions like Europe and China could position Tesla to capitalise on increasing EV demand.
• Potential entry into emerging markets, such as India, could unlock substantial new revenue streams.

Potential risks:

• Expansion into global markets exposes Tesla to potential geopolitical risks, regulatory hurdles and supply chain issues.
• Competition from local players and established automakers could limit Tesla's growth in these regions.

Regulatory environment

Tesla operates in a heavily regulated industry where government policies significantly influence its operations, which could propel growth or create obstacles.

Potential rewards:

• Favorable policies, such as EV tax credits and renewable energy subsidies, might boost consumer demand and Tesla’s revenue.
• Supportive frameworks for autonomous driving could accelerate the rollout of Tesla’s Robotaxi services, and potentially boost market sentiment.

Potential risks:

• Unfavorable regulatory changes, like the removal of EV subsidies or policies targeting large automakers, could reduce demand and increase costs.
• Tesla’s dependence on policies in key markets like the U.S. and China could increase risk.

Leadership and brand

Tesla’s success is closely tied to its strong brand and Elon Musk’s leadership, factors which influence Tesla’s reputation and profile while creating potential vulnerabilities:

Potential rewards:

• Elon Musk’s vision and influence have built Tesla into a global brand synonymous with innovation.
• Musk’s leadership often generates market excitement and drives confidence in Tesla’s ambitious projects.

Potential risks:

• Musk’s unpredictable behaviour and controversial decisions may inadvertently cause harm to Tesla's reputation and stock performance.
• Tesla’s reliance on Musk raises concerns about leadership succession and long-term stability.

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¹ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/
² https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F/

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