Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast: third-party Tesla price target
Tesla is an electric vehicle manufacturer, widely credited for its 2008 Roadster, which paved the way for the modern EV industry. Its founder and CEO – Elon Musk – is also known for launching SpaceX, acquiring Twitter (now called ‘X’) and being an advisor to Donald Trump.
We examine Tesla stock price predictions for 2025 and beyond, with insights from third-party analysts and market experts.
Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast for 2025 and beyond
When it comes to Tesla forecasts for 2025 and beyond, as of 24 October 2024, Morningstar analyst and equities strategist Seth Goldstein maintained a $210 ‘fair value estimate’ for Tesla, rating it ‘overvalued’ at current prices with a ‘narrow moat’ (indicating limited competitive advantages). Morningstar expects the market price to align with this estimate within three years if their assumptions hold true.
TipRanks gave Tesla a ‘hold’ on 22 November 2024 based on 34 stock market analysts’ ratings of whom 11 recommended ‘buy’, nine said ‘sell’ and the remaining 14 said to ‘hold’. On average, the analysts anticipate Tesla to trade for $232.64 in 2025, based on forecasts ranging from $24.86 up to $400.
On 22 November 2024, TradingView predicted that Tesla will trade at $245.11 in 2025, calculated by averaging price predictions from 43 analyst sources – including William Stein of Truist Financial who offered a price target of $238. The highest prediction was $400 and the lowest, $85. The aggregate rating is ‘neutral’, reflecting a mixed outlook among 57 analysts.
Looking further ahead, Gov Capital provided a five-year forecast on 28 November 2024, anticipating a $1,534.78 average Tesla stock price in 2029, that could potentially surpass $1,700 by the end of that year.
It’s worth remembering that these are just analyst forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Tesla (TSLA) stock predictions: analysts’ price target view
Tesla (TSLA) stock predictions and analysts’ price target views developed in 2024 due to Donald Trump’s 2024 victory in the US election, which had an immediate impact on the stock market. Meanwhile, Tesla speculation soared due to Elon Musk’s position as Trump’s advisor, but will the new administration really benefit the stock price?
Reports of plans to cut consumer tax credits for EVs caused Musk to write ‘Take away the subsidies. It will only help Tesla.’ to his X account (formerly Twitter) on 16 July 2024. Dan Ives and his team of analysts at Wedbush echoed this sentiment in November 2024, saying that it would ‘enable Tesla to further fend off competition’ and maintains an ‘OUTPERFORM rating and $400 price target,
Ives said that ‘Musk's significant influence in the Trump White House is already having a major influence and ultimately the golden path for Tesla around Cybercabs and autonomous is now within reach with an emboldened Trump/Musk strategic alliance playing out in real time and very in line with our thesis,’
On November 25, 2024, UBS analyst Joseph Spak maintained a ‘sell’ rating with a price target of $226 per share, saying ‘the rise in Tesla stock is mostly driven by animal spirits/momentum (which has happened multiple times in TSLA’s history),’ and suggests that traders should ‘think about what one needs to believe in adding to TSLA position at current levels.’
On Tesla’s new and potentially risky non-automotive business segments, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois noted on 14 November 2024 that: ‘assuming markets remain competitive, deregulation raises the growth path but also the investment requirements for Tesla and competitors - [autonomous vehicles], robots - in ventures where returns remain unclear,’
Houchois set a $300 Tesla stock price target and issued a ‘hold’ rating.
Tesla (TSLA) stock price drivers
Here are some of the Tesla (TSLA) stock price drivers that could impact traders in the coming years, according to market analysts:
Elon Musk’s relationship with Donald Trump
Elon Musk is an avid supporter of Donald Trump, and he was appointed as head of the DOGE (or ‘Department of Government Efficiency’). Around election time, late-2024, analysts speculated on how this might impact the Tesla stock price. Policy changes brought about by changes in government can have a significant impact on share prices, particularly for companies whose leaders have political ties, such as Musk.
For example, Tesla shares rallied on a Bloomberg report that Trump, who was President-elect at the time, had announced plans to establish a federal framework for self-driving vehicles in the US Department of Transportation.
Morningstar equities analyst, Seth Goldstein, commented that ‘Given that Tesla CEO Elon Musk is also an advisor to Trump, we think any framework created would be favorable for Tesla’s self-driving technology. This would remove some regulatory hurdles for the rollout of Tesla’s planned Robotaxi service, including the Cybercab that would be a fully autonomous vehicle.’
However, the Trump administration doesn’t guarantee infinite benefits for Musk, as seen in November 2024, when the Californian democrat governor proposed a tax credit for EV makers which would exclude Tesla due to its large market capitalisation.
Regulations
Regulation and government policies – such as restrictions, tax subsidies for EV buyers and new environmental laws – can directly impact operations, which can influence the Tesla stock price.
Analysts at Morningstar have noted that ‘favorable regulations can accelerate EV adoption, benefiting Tesla, while unfavorable policies may pose challenges.’
For example, the reinstatement or elimination of federal tax credits for EV buyers in the United States can influence consumer demand. International policies, such as Europe's stringent emissions regulations and China's EV subsidies, also affect Tesla's global market.
Innovation and competition
Product announcements, advancements in battery technology and developments in autonomous driving features can significantly impact trader sentiment and the Tesla stock price.
Tesla is a pioneer in the EV industry, but the sector has grown more competitive since it was founded. Traditional automakers like Volkswagen and General Motors are shifting their focus into EV technology, while new entrants like Rivian and Lucid Motors gain market share.
Tesla's ability to maintain its technological edge, expand production capacity and introduce new models – like the Cybertruck and Semi – may help it maintain relevance. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives stated that ‘continued innovation and scaling production will be key for Tesla to fend off increasing competition.’
Shareholders’ response to Tesla news
In November 2024, Tesla had a market capitalisation worth $1.087 trillion1, over 2,200% larger than that of Ford Motor, which was $43.307 billion2.
A larger market capitalisation usually means that there are more shareholders, which brings increased scrutiny upon positive or negative news – such as product announcements and delivery reports. This could potentially result in greater potential for significant price changes during such events.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives observed how delivery performance can impact Tesla’s success. Regarding the Q3 2024 delivery report, which came in close to market expectations, he said that it’s something ‘we would characterize as good and a mini step in the right direction’ and ‘upside expected.’
For example, Tesla’s Q1 2023 and Q3 2021 earnings resulted in a significant increase in share price during their release months. Conversely, the Tesla price decreased after its April 2024 delivery report came out and numbers fell below expectations.
Want to learn more about Tesla stock price drivers?
Check out our comprehensive trader’s guide to Tesla for additional factors which could influence Tesla’s stock price and more.
What is the Tesla stock price history?
The Tesla stock price history shows its remarkable volatility and growth since its 2010 IPO. Here’s an overview of Tesla’s price journey:
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
IPO and early years (2010-2012)
Tesla went public on 29 June 2010, pricing its IPO at $17 per share and closing its first trading day at $23.89. However, early trading was turbulent, with the price dropping to an all-time low closing price of $1.05* on 7 July 2010. Market sentiment remained cautious until Tesla’s first profitable quarter in 2013.
Growth period (2013–2019)
In April 2013, Tesla rallied after posting its first quarterly profit. By September 2013, shares reached $12.89*, marking a turning point. However, the stock faced setbacks due to incidents like Model S fire reports and production challenges, reflecting the growing pains of a disruptive automaker. Tesla stock began gaining momentum in 2019, fueled by increasing EV adoption and successful product launches like the Model 3.
Pandemic era (2020)
Tesla’s growth accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite global economic challenges, the company’s shares surged as it became the world’s most valuable automaker by market capitalisation in June 2020, surpassing Toyota. In December, Tesla was added to the US 500, further boosting investor confidence. Shares closed the year at an impressive $235.22*.
Peak and volatility (2021 – 2022)
Tesla continued to grow, reaching an all-time high of $409.47* in November 2021. This was driven by strong delivery numbers and increased global demand for EVs. However, the stock experienced volatility due to concerns over production delays and chip shortages, closing the year slightly lower.
While Tesla reported record vehicle deliveries and revenue growth, its stock price declined in 2022, ending the year 65% down. The 3-for-1 stock split in August and Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter (now X) contributed to trader concerns, while rising interest rates and persistent inflationary pressures weighed heavily on the broader market, affecting Tesla’s valuation.
Recent years (2023–2024)
2023 was characterised by significant swings in the Tesla stock price. In the first half, shares surged by over 150%, buoyed by optimism surrounding Tesla’s expansion in autonomous driving technology. However, the rally lost steam due to disappointing delivery numbers and a large-scale recall of nearly 200,000 vehicles. Tesla shares ended the year lower, reflecting concerns about declining automotive sales and production delays caused by persistent semiconductor shortages.
Tesla stock faced volatility in 2024, fluctuating within a price range of $138.80–to–$342.03. Profits in Q1 dropped by more than 50% compared to the same period in 2023, and earnings missed analyst expectations, which influenced bearish price action. The US election in November 2024 brought Elon Musk closer to the political spotlight due to his advisory role in the Trump administration, creating speculation about how this influence might shape Tesla’s future.
*All stock prices mentioned are adjusted for splits and dividends.
Share trading strategies to consider
Here are some share trading strategies to consider. Whether you trade Tesla or any other shares – choose a strategy aligned with your risk tolerance, time commitment and market knowledge.
Trend trading strategy
Trend traders analyse price movements over a specific period, identifying trends with technical analysis tools like moving averages, relative strength index (RSI) and chart patterns to gauge trends.
- Bullish example – traders may look for an upward trend characterised by higher highs and higher lows and go long on Tesla when the price breaks above a resistance level.
- Bearish example – traders could identify a downward trend with lower highs and lower lows and decide to short Tesla shares when the price breaks below a support level.
Trend trading aims to leverage prolonged price movements, enabling traders to align with the prevailing market direction while managing entry and exit points effectively.
Day trading strategy
Day traders execute multiple trades in a single trading session, lasting one day or shorter, aiming to profit from intraday price volatility.
- Bullish example – traders might buy Tesla shares during an intraday breakout above a key resistance level, closing the position before the session ends.
- Bearish example – traders may short Tesla shares during an intraday breakdown below a support level, profiting from quick price drops.
Day trading seeks to exploit Tesla’s intraday price movements by taking advantage of short-term volatility and executing trades, using technical analysis to identify potential support and resistance levels.
Position trading strategy
Position traders focus on broader market trends and fundamentals instead of short-term price movements, often holding positions for months up to a year.
- Bullish example – traders could open a long CFD position on the price of Tesla based on long-term growth drivers, such as innovation in autonomous vehicles.
- Bearish example – traders might open a short CFD position on the price of Tesla based on long-term challenges, such as increased competition or regulatory hurdles.
Position trading aims to profit from significant price changes over time, potentially making it suitable for traders who are aligned with Tesla’s macro trends and potential long-term value shifts.
Swing trading strategy
Swing traders hold positions over a period of days to weeks, aiming to profit from short- to medium-term price fluctuations.
- Bullish example – after a price dip to a support level, swing traders might open a long position on Tesla, expecting the share price to bounce and continue rising.
- Bearish example – if the Tesla price drops to a resistance level, a trader might open a short position on Tesla, anticipating a reversal and price drop.
Swing trading seeks to benefit from market ‘swings’ by identifying price patterns and timing trades accordingly, often involving both technical and fundamental analysis.
Want to learn more about trading strategies?
Read our comprehensive guides to trading strategies for lots of examples and ideas.
What are the Tesla stock risks and rewards?
The Tesla stock risks and rewards present unique opportunities and challenges for traders, including:
Innovation and technological leadership
Tesla is widely regarded as a pioneer in the electric vehicle (EV) market due to its innovations including batteries, autonomous driving and energy storage.
Potential rewards:
- Tesla’s sustained focus on innovation helps it stay ahead of competitors.
- New product launches like the Cybertruck and advancements in autonomous driving with the Robotaxi could significantly boost revenue streams and market share.
Potential risks:
- Innovation has inherent risks.
- Product delays, underwhelming technology updates and failures to meet market expectations could erode Tesla’s reputation and market sentiment.
- Competitors catching up to, or surpassing, Tesla’s technology could also erode its share price.
Global EV market growth
As the world shifts toward sustainable transportation, Tesla’s global expansion could remain as a long-term growth driver.
Potential rewards:
- Growing presence in regions like Europe and China could position Tesla to capitalise on increasing EV demand.
- Potential entry into emerging markets, such as India, could unlock substantial new revenue streams.
Potential risks:
- Expansion into global markets exposes Tesla to potential geopolitical risks, regulatory hurdles and supply chain issues.
- Competition from local players and established automakers could limit Tesla's growth in these regions.
Regulatory environment
Tesla operates in a heavily regulated industry where government policies significantly influence its operations, which could propel growth or create obstacles.
Potential rewards:
- Favorable policies, such as EV tax credits and renewable energy subsidies, might boost consumer demand and Tesla’s revenue.
- Supportive frameworks for autonomous driving could accelerate the rollout of Tesla’s Robotaxi services, and potentially boost market sentiment.
Potential risks:
- Unfavorable regulatory changes, like the removal of EV subsidies or policies targeting large automakers, could reduce demand and increase costs.
- Tesla’s dependence on policies in key markets like the U.S. and China could increase risk.
Leadership and brand
Tesla’s success is closely tied to its strong brand and Elon Musk’s leadership, factors which influence Tesla’s reputation and profile while creating potential vulnerabilities:
Potential rewards:
- Elon Musk’s vision and influence have built Tesla into a global brand synonymous with innovation.
- Musk’s leadership often generates market excitement and drives confidence in Tesla’s ambitious projects.
Potential risks:
- Musk’s unpredictable behaviour and controversial decisions may inadvertently cause harm to Tesla's reputation and stock performance.
- Tesla’s reliance on Musk raises concerns about leadership succession and long-term stability.
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1 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/
2 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F/