Novavax (NVAX) stock forecast: Can price rebound to $200?
After grappling with delays in manufacturing and permit submissions on its coronavirus vaccine for much of 2021, Novavax (NVAX) finally saw the light at the end of the tunnel. On 1 November 2021, the US pharmaceutical company received its first emergency use authorisation (EUA) for its Covid-19 vaccine from the Government of Indonesia.
Since then, Novavax has received EUAs from the Philippines and India, and a Conditional Marketing Authorisation (CMA) from the European Union (EU) for NVX-CoV2373. On 17 December, the company received Emergency Use Listing (EUL) from the World Health Organisation (WHO). It’s the first protein-based Covid-19 vaccine to receive the WHO’s EUL.
In addition, NVAX has completed regulatory submissions for authorisation to the US, Japan, South Korea, UAE, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand. Novavax began to deliver its first Covid-19 vaccine towards the end of 2021.
Despite progress, NVAX stock has continued its downtrend. In the first three weeks of 2022, it lost 35.39%, as of 19 January. It was also down 26.17% for the longer one-year timeframe.
What factors pressure NVAX stock? We will discuss Novavax fundamentals, recent news and price drivers to help you build a plausible Novavax share price forecast.
Novavax stock news: Getting NVX-CoV2373 out to the door
The Gaithersburg, Maryland-based biotechnology company expects to secure authorisations for its Covid-19 vaccine from major countries, including the US, UK and Canada, over the next 30 to 90 days, said Stanley Erck, Novavax’s President and CEO, at the 40th Annual J.P Morgan Healthcare Conference on 10 January.
On 31 December, Novavax submitted chemistry, manufacturing and controls data to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), completing final data packages required for EUA applications for a NVX-CoV2373 vaccine.
The company plans to deliver 40 million doses of vaccine to Indonesia in the coming quarters, on top of over 10 million doses which had been delivered, Erck said.
To support the GAVI Alliance, a public–private global health partnership with the goal of increasing access to immunization in poor countries, Novavax was aiming to ship 80 million doses by the end of this quarter, he said. It will ship 27 million doses to the EU in the first quarter and an additional 42 million for delivery in the second quarter. Both orders are part of the EU's optional purchase of up to 200 million doses, Erck added.
Novavax (NVAX) stock fundamental analysis: Latest earnings
Novavax is still loss making, which is not uncommon for biotech companies needing to invest heavily in research and development. In the third quarter ending 30 September 2021, it reported a net loss of $322.4m, or $4.31 a share, widened from a net loss of $197.3m or $3.21 a share in the same period last year.
Research and development expenses increased to $408.2m in the third quarter of 2021 from $294.1m in the same period in 2020, primarily due to the development and manufacturing for NVX-CoV2373.
However, its revenue rose to $178.8m in the third quarter, up from $157.0m in the same period in 2020.
Novavax stock analysis: Major price drivers
Touted as one of the front runners in the race to develop a Covid-19 vaccine, the Novavax stock price surged from the $4 a share level in January 2020 to $170 in the first week of August 2020.
It continued to rally and hit an all-time high of $331 in February 2021 thanks to the vaccine’s logistical advantages and affordable cost. The Novavax vaccine has simple requirements for storage. It needs to be kept at between 2-8 degrees Centigrade, making it easy for international distribution and local transport in low-income countries where ultra-cold storage facilities are scarce.
Novavax’s logistical advantage could help plug the vaccination rate gap between high-income and low-income countries. Although about 60.2% of the world’s population have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, the number falls to 9.4% of people in low-income countries, according to ourworldindata.
From its all-time high, the NVAX stock price tumbled to $91.70 as it struggled to meet its own deadline for ramping up production and subsequently getting regulatory approvals on time.
Novavax’s stock price analysis shows it rebounded to the $217 level twice at the end of 2021. First on 26 November after getting CMA approval from the EU and again on 17 December when it secured an EUL from the WHO.
Its stock price continued the downtrend, hitting $110.82 a share on 14 January after the US Supreme Court blocked President Joe Biden’s vaccine mandate for companies that employ 100 workers or more, Barrons reported.
NVAX took a further blow and fell to below $100 a share on 18 January after Dr Anthony Fauci, Chief Medical Advisor to the US President, suggested that the Covid-19 Omicron variant might not mark the end of the pandemic, CNBC reported. Novavax stock dropped 11.17% on 18 January to $98.44.
On top of its logistic and cost advantages, Novavax’s protein-based vaccine is closely watched by people concerned about the potential side-effects from mRNA and viral-vector technology vaccines.
While protein vaccines are not yet widely used for Covid-19, late-stage clinical-trial data demonstrated strong protection with fewer side effects, according to science journal Nature.com.
Protein vaccines have been proven for decades to protect people from hepatitis, shingles and other viral infections, it added. “People simply want a safe and effective protein-based alternative,” Novavax’s CEO Erck said.
In addition, Erck said the company believes NVX-CoV2373 can play a role in paediatric vaccination.
Novavax stock prediction: Analyst sentiment
As of 20 January, the consensus view of six analysts compiled by MarketBeat was bullish.
Four analysts rated the stock as ‘buy’ and two rated it a ‘hold.’ Their median 12-month NVAX stock price target was $265, with the lowest estimate at $209 and the highest at $315.
The consensus among six analysts polled by CNN Money was a ‘buy’, with four rating it a ‘buy’ and two a ‘hold’. Five of six analysts gave a median price target of $282 a share for the next 12 months, which would represent a potential 186.47% increase from the 19 January closing price of $92.33.
Commenting on the Novavax future stock price and the company’s prospects, Capital.com’s Chief Market Strategist David Jones said:
Novavax (NVAX) stock forecast: Targets for 2022, 2025 and 2027
Algorithm-based NVAX stock forecast from Wallet Investor (as of 20 January) estimated the price to reach $189.77 by the end of 2022, $268.69 by the end of 2023 and to hit $435.51 by the end of 2025. Although the service did not provide targets for 2030, its 5-year Novevax share price forecast suggested the stock could hit $518.63 by the end of January 2027.
A Novavax share price forecast by Gov Capital, which uses machine learning to predict long-term prices, estimated Novavax to reach $142.17 within a year (by 20 January 2023) before reaching $435.48 by the end of 2025 and $567.213 by end of January 2027.
When looking for Novavax stock projections, it’s important to bear in mind that analysts’ forecasts can be wrong. Predictions are based on making fundamental and technical studies of the NVAX stock’s historical price pattern. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
It is important to do your own research and always remember your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the market, the spread of your investment portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money. You should never invest funds that you cannot afford to lose.
FAQs
Is Novavax a good stock to buy?
Whether NVAX is a suitable investment depends on your own investment objectives and the opinion you form based on your own research. Remember, it’s important to reach your own conclusions about the company’s prospects and likelihood of achieving analysts’ targets.
How high can Novavax stock go?
The consensus view of analysts compiled by MarketBeat, as of 20 January, was that it could increase to $265 over the next 12 months, although some were less optimistic. That’s why it’s important to carry out your own research into the stock and draw your own conclusions.
Why has Novavax stock been going down?
As with other vaccine makers, the value of Novavax stock could largely depend on the use of its Covid-19 vaccine. Recent reports suggested that the Omicron variant, while highly transmissible, caused less severe symptoms. It could mark the transition from a pandemic phase to an endemic one.
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