Fisker (FSR) stock forecast: When will EV makers rebound?
Fisker (FSR) continues to search for stability after a volatile 2021. With production set to begin in late 2022, can the electric vehicle (EV) maker reach more consistent heights and reverse its three-month contraction?
The company was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in October 2020 through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), which provided Fisker with $1bn in cash to fund development in 2022.
The stock is now trading 42% off the November 2021 peak reached amid a wider boom in the EV market. Can it regain those levels, and what factors are shaping a Fisker stock price forecast in 2022?
Fisker stock analysis
Fisker share price experienced false dawns in 2021. It reflects a wider volatility in the EV market as investors look beyond Tesla for the next electric car giant.
The stock rose by 90.51% in February 2021, peaking at $28.50 on 26 February, with fourth-quarter 2020 earnings showing strong reservation data and a memorandum of understanding with Foxconn to develop a vehicle under the Fisker name for distribution in Q4 2023.
The current (21 January) share price of $13.43 shows the company near the tail-end of that volatility, slightly above its 52-week range of $9.61, with a market capitalisation of $3.98bn. It may take until a production pattern is established for Fisker to ride out sustained volatility in its share price.
Fisker technical analysis suggests the selloff is likely to continue. One-day oscillators are neutral, albeit skewed towards ‘sell’, including a moving average convergence divergence (MACD) Level in sell position at -0.90.
But a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 29.55 implies the stock is moving closer to underbought territory. Moving averages are much more definitive in placing Fisker in a ‘strong sell’ position, which includes an Exponential Moving Average of 15.10.
It should be said that Fisker is not unique among EV companies in experiencing a correction to its share price. After a spike in the third quarter of 2021, EV stocks have experienced strong, sustained corrections buffeted by broader slow downs linked to the Omicron variant of Covid-19 and rising inflation.
Fisker, Lucid (LCID) and Nikola (NKLA) have all experienced varying levels of volatility over the last year. Nikola’s share price is down 55.77% in the last 12 months, indicating a sustained fall from a high base, which contrasts with Fisker’s evident variability, reflected in a 9.07% contraction over the last year. Lucid, which nearly doubled its share price over October and November, lost a quarter of its share value over December 2021.
Fisker has experienced bigger falls than Lucid and Nikola in the year-to-date, falling by 14.62% through January 2022, compared with Nikola’s 12.56% fall and Lucid’s 5.2% increase.
What makes Fisker different?
Like many of its EV competitors, Fisker is still in the growth phase, with production on its Ocean car set to start in November 2022. And it's competing in a crowded market. Arguably, the company lacks the scale to fight the economies of scale and production rate of established automotive brands like Ford, Mercedes and BMW.
Likewise, in terms of vehicle performance, the crown in 2021 appeared to go to Lucid, who received Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approval on its 520-mile range Lucid Air Dream Edition R, the longest range ever reported. That compares with the 350-mile range of the Fisker Ocean Extreme, the company’s most expensive option.
Fisker’s range is competitive, with a mileage range in line with some Tesla and Mercedes models, and well above the current average of 203 miles, which the company’s cheapest Ocean Sport option, at 250 miles, exceeds.
In recent Fisker stock news, the company said the Ocean series was expected to debut at a minimum price of $37,499 for the Ocean Sport, rising to $49,999 for the Ocean Ultra and $68,999 for the Ocean One.
The price points are, for their mileage, broadly in line with a range of EVs compiled by InsideEVs, with the Ocean One falling 50 miles short of the Rivian R1T’s 400-mile range, priced at $70,000, while Fisker’s affordable Sport model’s 250-mile range aligns to the Volkswagen ID.4 AWD Pro. But Fisker appears competitive in this list and, on price point and mileage, may appeal to buyers.
Cash reserves up ahead of year of debut production
It’s nearly three months since Fisker released earnings figures for Q3 2021, which, as with previous releases, caused a short-term surge in the company’s share price.
The company increased cash reserves to $1.4bn following the raising of $570m in a green convertible bond offering in August, which solidified the group financially for another year without revenue.
Losses made up a fraction of these reserves, with a net loss of $109.6bn, more than a two-fold rise on $53.1m loss a prior-year quarter. These were in direct proportion to the group's operating expenses, including research and development costs of $99.3m. Earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.37 missed analyst targets by $0.03.
Fisker projected full year expenditures to land between $490m and $530m.
Third-quarter earnings revealed that reservations rose to 18,600, as of 2 November 2021, which at the company’s lowest price point would amount to more than $700m in sales, a figure which, if achieved, makes its current market cap seem modest.
Earnings season is fast approaching. Fisker’s next results may come at a welcome time to jolt the EV maker’s stock back into life.
Fisker (FSR) stock forecast
The Fisker stock projection is in a period of suspended animation as earnings season approaches, with no predictions since the stock’s fall in December 2021 and January 2022.
Based on 11 analyst price targets compiled by MarketBeat, Fisker’s average price target for the next twelve months stood at $24.83, at the time of writing (20 January), ranging from a high of $40 to a low of $10.The stock had a consensus ‘buy’ recommendation, with seven analysts rating it as a ‘buy’, three a ‘hold’ and one a ‘sell’.
The most recent price targets, provided in mid-November, following earnings figures, suggested Fisker stock predictions ranging from $24, a boost from $18 by Bank of America on 10 November 2021, to $32 by Credit Suisse Group.
These Fisker share price forecasts were delivered before the stock’s latest contraction, with current upside possibly more reserved than November’s estimates.
Long-term forecasts for Fisker give a measured outlook. Algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor predicted a Fisker future stock price of $18.93 in December 2022, rising to $28.87 by December 2025, in line with an expected ramping up in production and revenues.
AI Pickup provided a Fisker stock price forecast through to 2030. It forecasted the stock to hit $18.72 by 2030, only slightly exceeding that figure in 2026 and 2027.
Note that price predictions can be wrong. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing. And never invest or trade money you cannot afford to lose.
FAQs
Is Fisker stock a good buy?
Fisker could present a good long-term buy. In the short run, gains could be made during earnings season.
Based on 11 analyst price targets compiled by MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus ‘buy’ recommendation, with seven analysts rating it as a ‘buy’, three a ‘hold’ and one as a ‘sell’. Note that price predictions can be wrong. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing. And never invest or trade money you cannot afford to lose.
Why has the Fisker share price been dropping?
Fisker stock fell by 20.44% in December 2021, and is down 14.62% so far in 2022 (as of 21 January). The price could be reacting to speculative downgrading since the price rose in November, with the value now approaching its 52-week support of $9.61.
How high can Fisker stock go?
Based on 11 analyst price targets compiled by MarketBeat, the Fisker average price target for the next twelve months stood at $24.83, ranging from a high of $40 to a low of $10. Note that price predictions can be wrong. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing. And never invest or trade money you cannot afford to lose.
Is Fisker a public company?
Fisker floated on the New York Stock Exchange following a SPAC merger which provided Fisker with $1 billion in cash to fund development through 2022
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