US natural gas extends losses, falls over 3% after larger-than-expected storage build
By Vedika Thorat and Anushree Mukherjee
Oct 29 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures extended losses and fell more than 3% on Thursday after a larger-than-expected storage build and forecasts for milder weather signaled weaker heating demand and ample supplies before winter.
On its first day as the front month, gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11 cents, or 3.6%, to $2.92 per million British thermal units by 10:53 am ET (1453 GMT).
The US Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 80 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended October 23.
That was larger than the 69-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an injection of 75 bcf during the same week a year ago and an average increase for that week of 77 bcf over the past five years. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL
"The market is starting to see this bigger-than-expected pressure because of the lack of demand, the shoulder season demand and because of that, it's putting downward pressure on prices," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.
"And this is a super El Niño year and you know, they're talking about a very warm winter."
Financial firm LSEG forecast on Thursday heating degree days, a measure of energy demand for heating buildings, at 160 over the next two weeks, down from 169 a day earlier.
Meteorologists predicted weather across the US would remain mostly milder than normal through November 13, which should keep heating demand lower than usual in coming weeks.
LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has slid to 112.1 billion cubic feet per day in October, down from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in both August and September.
On a daily basis, however, output has recovered to an average of around 113.3 bcfd over the past week.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants have risen to 18.5 bcfd so far in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September. That figure is still below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Still, with seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 106.4 bcfd this week to 108.6 bcfd next week.
"While export activity has lifted since last week, much of this gain has been offset by a near record pace of production as record oil output is spilling into strong associated gas production that will remain as a headwind to higher prices well into the winter period," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Dutch and British gas prices fell back below €100 ($111) on Thursday morning on renewed hopes of peace talks to ease the conflict in the Middle East and as flows from Norway rose. NG/EU
Week ended Oct 23 Actual | Week ended Oct 16 Actual | Year ago Oct 23 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 23 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +80 | +77 | +75 | +77 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,724 | 3,644 | 3,871 | 3,686 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +1.03% | +1.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.98 | 2.77 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 33.71 | 32.42 | 10.88 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 32.36 | 31.74 | 11.11 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 160 | 169 | 192 | 190 | 189 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 21 | 21 | 12 | 19 | 16 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 181 | 190 | 204 | 209 | 205 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 113.4 | 113.4 | 113.5 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 120.3 | 120.3 | 121.0 | 114.0 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 19.4 | 19.2 | 19.6 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 7.6 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 8.1 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 32.0 | 32.1 | 30.9 | 33.4 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 23.2 | 22.8 | 23.0 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 78.7 | 78.1 | 79.5 | 79.1 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 106.9 | 106.4 | 108.6 | 104.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 86 | 86 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 84 | 83 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 83 | 83 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 30 | Week ended Oct 23 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 41 | 39 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 15 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.86 | 2.76 | 3.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.55 | 1.70 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.65 | 3.69 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.49 | 1.67 | 2.12 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.45 | 2.35 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.75 | 2.07 | 2.51 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.67 | 3.66 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.53 | 1.42 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.88 | 1.24 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 42.43 | 49.20 | 44.36 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 69.55 | 63.91 | 57.52 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 87.04 | 55.20 | 45.49 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 49.79 | 27.83 | 26.78 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 49.71 | 37.19 | 27.16 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
($1 = 0.8971 euros)