US natgas prices settle at 5-month low on milder weather outlook
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures eased about 1% to a five-month low on Monday on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.8 cents, or 1%, to settle at $2.602 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since April 28.
That decline kept the front-month in technically oversold territory for a fourth day in a row for the first time since April.
In a sign the market is not too worried about gas supplies this winter, the premium of futures for March over April 2027 fell to a record low of around 6 cents per mmBtu.
March is the last month of the winter season, when demand is high and utilities pull gas from storage to heat homes and businesses.
Analysts say March should never trade below April, the first month of the summer season, when demand is low and energy firms produce enough gas to inject fuel into storage for the next winter.
The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow-maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Notably, the Amaranth hedge fund lost more than $6 billion in 2006.
In another sign the market is not overworried about supply meeting demand in coming months, the 12-month futures strip dropped to a 25-month low of $2.86 per mmBtu.
In other news, EQT EQT.N, the second-biggest US gas producer, said on Monday it will buy Range Resources RRC.N in a $13 billion all-stock deal that will create the nation's biggest gas producer.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid to 111.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in both August and September.
On a daily basis, however, output has recovered to an average of around 113.3 bcfd over the past week.
Looking ahead, meteorologists predicted weather across the country would remain mostly milder than normal through November 10, which should keep heating demand lower than usual in coming weeks.
Still, with seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 106.6 bcfd this week to 110.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants rose to 18.3 bcfd so far in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September. That is still below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Week ended Oct 23 Forecast | Week ended Oct 16 Actual | Year ago Oct 23 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 23 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +68 | +77 | +75 | +77 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,712 | 3,644 | 3,871 | 3,686 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +0.7% | +1.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.53 | 2.64 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 31.39 | 30.70 | 10.88 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 31.42 | 30.63 | 11.11 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 153 | 153 | 167 | 163 | 206 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 24 | 26 | 26 | 35 | 20 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 177 | 179 | 193 | 198 | 226 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 113.4 | 113.6 | 114.1 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 120.3 | 120.8 | 121.6 | 114.0 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 19.4 | 19.5 | 19.2 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 7.6 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 8.1 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 32.0 | 31.5 | 31.8 | 33.4 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 23.2 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 78.7 | 78.0 | 81.7 | 79.1 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 106.9 | 106.6 | 110.4 | 104.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 88 | 88 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 84 | 83 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 83 | 82 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 30 | Week ended Oct 23 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 38 | 39 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 14 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.78 | 2.95 | 3.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.12 | 1.56 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.60 | 3.66 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.16 | 1.54 | 2.12 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.31 | 2.44 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.40 | 1.74 | 2.51 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.47 | 3.76 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.58 | 1.70 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.30 | 1.30 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 42.08 | 42.08 | 44.36 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 58.81 | 54.30 | 57.52 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 103.44 | 66.63 | 45.49 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 34.50 | 21.57 | 26.78 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 38.40 | 28.09 | 27.16 | 28.44 | 53.02 |