US natgas prices hold near two-month low on expected storage build
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Oct 22 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures held near a two-month low on Thursday after a federal report showed an expected storage build last week.
The US Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 77 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended October 16.
That was in line with the 79-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 86 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 87 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.7 cent to $2.797 per million British thermal units. On Wednesday, the contract closed at its lowest level since August 25.
That lack of price movement kept the front-month in technically oversold territory for a second consecutive day for the first time in three months.
In a sign the market is not too worried about supply meeting demand in coming months, futures for calendar 2027 fell to a 56-month low of $3.12 per mmBtu, while the 12-month futures strip dropped to a 23-month low of $2.93.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid from record highs of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in August and September to 111.6 bcfd so far in October.
With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 106.7 bcfd this week to 107.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants rose to 18.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September. That is still below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Around the world, gas was trading at 46-month highs near $29 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and $30 at the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Global gas prices have soared in recent years due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the US-Israeli war with Iran this year.
US gas prices, however, have not reacted much to those conflicts because the US produces all the gas it consumes domestically and US LNG companies are already liquefying as much fuel as they can export.
As a result, no matter how high global gas prices go, the US cannot send more LNG to the rest of the world until new liquefaction units under construction in the US enter service in coming months and years.
Week ended Oct 16 Actual | Week ended Oct 9 Actual | Year ago Oct 16 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 16 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +77 | +67 | +86 | +87 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,644 | 3,567 | 3,796 | 3,609 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +1.0% | +1.3% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.75 | 2.79 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 29.03 | 28.50 | 10.88 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 30.06 | 29.55 | 11.11 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 159 | 141 | 167 | 163 | 187 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 26 | 28 | 26 | 35 | 24 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 185 | 169 | 193 | 198 | 211 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.2 | 113.3 | 113.7 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 7.2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 117.3 | 120.1 | 121.2 | 114.0 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 7.1 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 18.4 | 19.4 | 19.3 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 6.1 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 5.3 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 34.8 | 31.8 | 30.9 | 33.4 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 22.3 | 23.2 | 23.1 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 76.2 | 78.5 | 79.0 | 79.1 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 103.8 | 106.7 | 107.8 | 104.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 89 | 90 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 83 | 85 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 82 | 84 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 23 | Week ended Oct 16 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 14 | 11 | 11 | 10 | |
Solar | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |
Hydro | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
Other | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Natural Gas | 40 | 40 | 42 | 41 | |
Coal | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 | |
Nuclear | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.01 | 3.10 | 3.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.78 | 1.74 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.74 | 3.70 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.81 | 1.57 | 2.12 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.51 | 2.64 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.98 | 1.88 | 2.51 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.87 | 3.93 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.76 | 1.73 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.32 | 1.33 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 45.00 | 46.00 | 44.36 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 68.11 | 79.92 | 57.52 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 67.27 | 69.88 | 45.49 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 36.00 | 43.25 | 26.78 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 39.57 | 45.21 | 27.16 | 28.44 | 53.02 |