LIVE MARKETS-Nasdaq's five-month stall leaves support in the spotlight 

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NASDAQ'S FIVE-MONTH STALL LEAVES SUPPORT IN THE SPOTLIGHT

The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC climbed about 1.1% on Wednesday to finish at 26,702.86, leaving the tech-heavy index just 3.3% below its October 6 record close and 3.7% beneath its intraday peak from the same day.

Yet despite trading within striking distance of record highs, the Nasdaq has made virtually no progress for more than five months. Since closing at a then-record 26,635.22 on May 14, the index has gained just 0.25% across 110 trading days as investors have wrestled with concerns over oil prices, inflation, interest rates, AI spending, rising debt levels and uncertainty ahead of the midterm elections.

Beneath the surface, the picture has been far less encouraging. The Nasdaq has posted 24 record closes this year, but only 4 have come since early June, including 2 in September and 2 earlier this month. Last Monday, the Nasdaq daily advance/decline line fell to a record low, and on Tuesday, other measures of internal strength closed at their weakest levels since April 2025.

Now, with e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures down more than 1.5% before Thursday's open after earnings from Tesla TSLA.O and Meta Platforms META.O did little to ease concerns over AI spending and a rebound in oil prices further dampened sentiment, attention is shifting back to key Nasdaq support levels.

The first area traders are watching is the 100-day moving average, which ended Wednesday near 26,275. Just below that sits the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-October advance at 26,063. That zone held during the October 16 selloff, when the Composite briefly dipped to 26,023.

If support begins to crack, attention would shift to the September 16 low at 25,803 and a rising weekly Gann line near 25,450. Below that, a cluster of longer-term support converges around 25,000, including the 38.2% retracement of the March-to-October rally, the June low and the 200-day moving average. A decline to this area would put the IXIC down just over 9% from its record close.

On the upside, initial resistance sits near the 50-day moving average at 26,630 and Wednesday's intraday high at 26,679. Beyond that, traders may focus on the June 1 intraday high at 27,190, ahead of the October record peak.

Still, traders should keep the bigger picture in mind. Despite several sharp advances and declines since mid-May, the Nasdaq has struggled to sustain a lasting trend in either direction, spending the past five months effectively moving sideways.

(Terence Gabriel)

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