IRB Brasil Report Flags El Niño Risks to Brazil’s 2027 Second-Crop Corn

By Public Technologies
  • IRB Brasil Resseguros’ research warns very strong El Niño events could trigger simultaneous second-crop corn yield losses across Brazil’s Center-West in 2027.
  • October NOAA forecasts put strong-to-very-strong El Niño probability above 83% for January-March 2027; persistence probability reaches 85% for March-May.
  • The study covers 23 harvests from 2003 to 2025; four states analyzed supplied approximately 72% of national second-crop corn production during 2021-2025.
  • During the severe 2016 drought, yield shortfalls reached 43% in Goiás, 34% in Mato Grosso and 27% in Mato Grosso do Sul.
  • El Niño intensity alone cannot predict crop-loss severity; rainfall, planting schedules and drought conditions remain critical for agricultural insurance risk management.


Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. IRB Brasil Resseguros SA published the original content used to generate this news brief on October 22, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.

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