FranceAgriMer lifts wheat export forecast on weaker Black Sea competition

By Sybille de La Hamaide

PARIS, Oct 14 (Reuters) - FranceAgriMer on Wednesday raised its forecast for 2026/27 French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season, citing reduced competition from the Black Sea region as attacks continue to disrupt grain shipments.

In cereal supply-and-demand projections, the office forecast soft wheat exports outside the 27-member bloc at 6.5 million metric tons, up from 6.3 million tons last month, but 13% below last season.

"We estimated that the logistical problems in the Black Sea would favour French origins in the first half of the campaign," Thibaut Champagnol of FranceAgriMer's grains unit told reporters.

Grain importers have sought alternatives to Russian and Ukrainian supplies after an escalation in attacks on ports and vessels in both countries severely disrupted Black Sea trade.

France has since exported wheat to countries such as Sudan, which traditionally bought Black Sea wheat, Champagnol said.

MAIZE STOCKS LOWEST IN 36 YEARS

In contrast, forecasts for French soft wheat shipments within the EU in 2026/27 were cut to 7.0 million tons, from 7.1 million in September.

Soft wheat stocks at the end of 2026/27 were projected at 2.7 million tons, down from 3.0 million last month but 4% above 2025/26.

French maize ending stocks were expected to be at their lowest level since 1990/91 at 1.1 million tons, down from 1.5 million projected in September and now 43% below last year, due to this year's poor crop, Champagnol said.

France recorded its lowest maize output in decades this year after heatwaves and drought damaged crops.

The stock forecast could be cut further later in the season to reflect an expected downgrade to harvest estimates, Champagnol added.

French maize exports were seen tumbling by 64% from last season, while imports would nearly double.

For barley, projected 2026/27 ending stocks were lowered to 1.5 million tons from 1.6 million, still 20% above last season.

Showers in many parts of France last week favoured sowing for the 2027 harvest, but the return of dry, warm weather across much of the country was a concern, said Benoit Pietrement, head of FranceAgriMer's grains committee.