Citi retains 'neutral' rating on Transurban, cites traffic softness and fuel price headwinds

By Reuters News

** Citi says organic traffic growth is the primary driver of free cash flow and dividend growth for Australia's Transurban TCL.AX

** Flags traffic data showing persistent traffic softness across Sydney and Melbourne, which it says closely correlates with higher petrol and diesel prices following the removal of fuel excise waivers

** Says large vehicles account for about 16% of network traffic volume but around 37% of group toll revenue, rising to as much as 50% in Brisbane and Melbourne, creating downside risk to higher-margin commercial traffic growth if diesel prices remain elevated

** Says long concession durations and CPI-linked toll escalators provide structural revenue protection, but near-term volume weakness and high fuel prices constrain free cash flow and distribution growth

** Maintains "neutral" rating on TCL

** Stock down over 1%, as of last close

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