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Alaska crude oil production to rise 13% in 2027, EIA says

By Reuters News

Nov 12 (Reuters) - Alaska crude oil production is forecast to increase 13% in 2027, as new output from the jointly owned Pikka Phase 1 project of Santos and Repsol and from the ConocoPhillips COP.N Nuna project boosts supply from the state's North Slope, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday.

  • EIA forecasts Alaska crude oil production will rise by 23,000 barrels per day (6%) in 2026, followed by a further increase of 60,000 bpd (13%) in 2027.

  • At a forecast 505,000 bpd in 2027, output would be the most since 2014.

  • EIA said the projected increases would mark Alaska's largest annual crude oil production gains since the 1980s, when output peaked at about 2 million bpd.

  • The Nuna project, owned by ConocoPhillips, started production in December 2024 and is expected to produce 20,000 bpd at its peak. So far this year, it has produced an average of 10,000 bpd, partially offsetting existing production declines.

  • The Pikka Phase 1 project, jointly owned by Santos and Repsol, began production in May 2026 with initial average monthly production of 2,000 bpd and reached 38,000 bpd as of September 2026, according to data from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.

  • The Pikka Phase 1 project expects peak production of 80,000 bpd by winter 2026–27, nearly 20% of total Alaskan production in 2025.

  • The US Interior Department is preparing to ease environmental review requirements for some oil and gas exploration activities in Alaska's National Petroleum Reserve as part of the push by President Donald Trump's administration to speed energy development in the Arctic, an Interior spokesperson said in August.

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