Leonardo stock forecast: GCAP contract, Q2 results, Q1 orders

Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) traded at €54.70 as of 11:23pm UTC on 6 July 2026, within an intraday range of €51.13–€55.35. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The move followed news that the UK, Italy and Japan had awarded a £4.6bn contract to advance the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a trilateral fighter jet initiative involving Leonardo (Edgewing, 3 July 2026). It also came shortly after the company launched its 2026 Transition Plan in late June, drawing closer analyst attention to its strategic direction (Leonardo, 11 June 2026). Broader order momentum has also been supported by Q1 2026 orders, which were reported as up 31% year on year (Investing.com, 6 May 2026).

Third-party LDO outlook: GCAP contract

As of 6 July 2026, third-party Leonardo stock predictions show consensus estimates clustered in the high €60s, while individual broker targets extend to €83. The following mini-briefs are ordered from lower to higher target.

Leonardo equity coverage (sell-side panel summary)

The company's published equity coverage panel shows an average 12-month target of €67.52. The figure is drawn from 19 contributing brokers, with ratings ranging from Reduce to Buy. The spread reflects diverging views on margin execution under the 2026 Transition Plan, with individual targets ranging from €56.10 at Agency Partners to €83 at Morgan Stanley (Leonardo S.p.A., 25 June 2026).

MarketScreener (analyst consensus)

MarketScreener records an average target price of €68.31, based on aggregated broker inputs following Leonardo's five-year industrial plan update. Its consensus data points to sustained order growth and an expanding defence-electronics backlog as supporting factors (MarketScreener, 6 July 2026).

Investing.com (analyst consensus)

Investing.com reports an average 12-month price target of €68.39, based on submissions from 18 analysts. The platform lists a high estimate of €83 and a low estimate of €61.50, alongside an overall Buy rating, with 11 of 18 analysts assigning a Buy rating amid steady order intake (Investing.com, 5 July 2026).

Stockopedia (consensus target)

Stockopedia's data places the analyst consensus target at €68.80, above the prevailing share price at the time of capture. The estimate reflects input from multiple sell-side houses tracking Leonardo's order backlog and cash-conversion trajectory (Stockopedia, 3 July 2026).

Simply Wall St (Morgan Stanley target update)

Simply Wall St notes that Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Leonardo to €83 from €82, while maintaining an Overweight rating. The revision cites updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth and profit margins following Leonardo's reported 31% year-on-year order growth in Q1 2026 (Simply Wall St, 22 June 2026).

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Leonardo earnings: latest results and upcoming schedule

Leonardo's board of directors reported first-quarter 2026 results on 6 May 2026, with the earnings presentation held later that day (MarketScreener, 6 May 2026). The group posted orders up 31% year on year to approximately €9bn and confirmed its full-year guidance (Investing.com, 6 May 2026).

The company's financial calendar indicates that Q2 2026 results are scheduled for release pre-market on 31 July 2026, followed by an earnings presentation later that day (Leonardo, 5 July 2026). The board of directors meeting is set for 30 July 2026 (AVIONEWS, 18 December 2025).

Looking further ahead, Leonardo's calendar lists the shareholders' meeting for 30 July 2026, the first-half 2026 report due from the board on 5 November 2026, and nine-month 2026 results expected around 6 November 2026 (AVIONEWS, 19 December 2025). Earlier in the year, the company outlined targets of approximately €21bn in 2026 revenue and around €2.03bn in adjusted EBIT as part of its industrial plan update presented in March 2026 (MarketScreener, 12 March 2026).

LDO stock price: technical overview

The LDO stock price traded at €54.70 as of 11:23pm UTC on 6 July 2026, sitting above its 20/50/100/200-day simple moving averages at roughly €51 / €52 / €55 / €54. The 100-day and 200-day averages sit close together near €55 and €54, forming a modest shelf just below current levels, according to data compiled from TradingView.

Momentum readings are above neutral without reaching levels commonly associated with overbought conditions. The 14-day relative strength index sits near 62, while the average directional index at 20 points to a trend that is neither weak nor strongly established. The hull moving average (9) sits near €54, broadly in line with spot, offering a shorter-term reference point alongside the longer moving averages, according to TradingView data.

On the topside, the nearest classic pivot resistance sits at R1 near €52.83, with the pivot table also pointing to R2 near €58.73. A daily close above these levels could bring that zone into focus within this framework, based on TradingView’s pivot calculations. Further up, R3 near €68.92 represents a more distant reference point drawn from the same pivot model.

On the downside, the classic pivot point (P) near €48.54 marks an initial reference, while the 20-day simple moving average near €51 offers a nearer shelf above it. If price loses the moving-average area around €51–€52, the classic S1 support near €42.64 becomes the next reference point in the pivot framework (TradingView, 6 July 2026).

This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Leonardo share price history (2024–2026)

LDO’s stock price has risen notably over the past two years, more than doubling as European defence spending has moved higher on the policy agenda. In July 2024, LDO traded around €22.29, before dipping to a two-year low of €19.29 on 5 August 2024 amid broader market volatility.

The shares then advanced through 2025 as governments across Europe signalled larger defence budgets. LDO closed 2025 at €49.23, marking a substantial gain for the year.

The move extended into early 2026, with LDO reaching a two-year high close of €64.27 on 18 March 2026. That coincided with the company’s five-year industrial plan update and reports that Leonardo had lifted its order and revenue targets.

Shares pulled back through April and May 2026 alongside broader market swings, reaching €49 on 15 May 2026. They then recovered through June, supported by fresh defence contract news, including the multi-nation GCAP fighter jet programme.

Leonardo closed at €54.70 on 6 July 2026, up around 6.3% year to date and roughly 16.6% higher year on year.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Share prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.

Leonardo (LDO): Capital.com analyst view

Leonardo’s share price performance over the past year reflects the broader re-rating of European defence stocks. The shares advanced from around €22 in mid-2024 to trade above €50 through much of 2026, alongside elevated European defence spending commitments and a steady flow of contract announcements.

Those developments include multinational programmes such as GCAP, as well as reported order growth that analysts have linked to improved revenue visibility. However, the same narrative has limits. Government spending commitments can shift with political priorities or fiscal constraints, while slower order intake or delays to contract signings could weigh on sentiment that has partly been built on continued momentum.

The stock’s volatility, including sharp pullbacks such as the one seen in early April 2026, also shows how quickly sentiment tied to a sector theme can move on macro or company-specific news. Some market participants may view Leonardo’s order backlog and industrial plan targets as supportive of the medium-term outlook, while others may see valuation levels following the rally as a reason for caution. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Leonardo CFDs

As of 6 July 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Leonardo CFDs shows 99% buyers versus 1% sellers, leaving a 98-percentage-point gap between the two sides. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change as market conditions evolve.

Summary – Leonardo 2026

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.