Germany 40 (DAX) forecast: US tariff uncertainty, ECB pause
Germany 40 tracks major German-listed companies, with current sentiment shaped by US tariff measures, stalled US–EU trade talks, and the ECB’s unchanged 2.15% refinancing rate. Explore third-party DE40 targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The DAX index – referred to as the Germany 40 (DE40) on CFD trading platforms such as Capital.com – is trading at €24,598.2 as of 8:50am UTC on 21 April 2026, with an intraday range of €24,295.50–€24,603.50. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Sentiment remains shaped by ongoing US tariff uncertainty, with the EU's baseline levy on goods entering the United States set at 15% under the existing framework, while higher sector-specific rates apply to areas such as steel and aluminium; the European Parliament also suspended efforts in February to advance a broader US–EU trade agreement, adding to the overhang on export-heavy German equities (Reuters, 18 January 2026). The ECB left its main refinancing rate unchanged at 2.15% at its March 2026 meeting and signalled a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach ahead of the 30 April rate decision, while CNBC reported on 16 April that a majority of traders were pricing in a pause at that gathering, with a rate increase expected in June, contributing to cautious positioning across eurozone equities (CNBC, 16 April 2026).
Germany 40 forecast 2026–2030: Third-party targets
As of 21 April 2026, third-party Germany 40 predictions present a range of DE40 targets, diverging between macro-regression approaches that flag trade headwinds and momentum-based models that take a more constructive view of index recovery.
Long Forecast (monthly regression model)
Long Forecast places the DE40 end-April 2026 close at 19,664, within a monthly band of 18,288 – 23,862, and carries a December 2026 close target of 21,872, implying a roughly 13.5% decline from the 1 January 2026 opening level of 22,301. The model applies a macro-regression framework and flags sustained downward pressure amid unresolved US tariff exposure on German exports (Long Forecast, 31 March 2026).
Investing.com (technical analysis)
Investing.com notes that the DE40 had recovered above the falling trendline from its 21,860 low, with buyers targeting the 200-day simple moving average at 24,140 and a rising trendline resistance near 24,400; a sustained break above those levels would open the path toward 25,000 and then 25,500. The analysis cites an IMF downgrade of Germany's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.8% as the key macro constraint, describing it as the largest single-country downgrade among eurozone economies (Investing.com, 15 April 2026).
Coin Price Forecast (rolling algorithmic model)
Coin Price Forecast sets the DE40 mid-2026 target at 25,894 and its year-end 2026 target at 26,469, implying a rise of approximately 6% from the 21 April 2026 level of 24,988 used as the model's reference. The model, updated on a daily rolling basis, applies a momentum-extrapolation methodology and does not incorporate discretionary macro assumptions (Coin Price Forecast, 20 April 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
DE40 index price: Technical overview
The DE40 index is trading at €24,598.2 as of 8:50am UTC on 21 April 2026, holding above its full moving-average stack on the daily chart. According to TradingView, all 12 standard moving averages from the 10-day to the 200-day carry a buy signal, with the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs clustered at roughly 23,460 / 23,981 / 24,225 / 24,118 to form a broadly supportive shelf beneath the current price.
Momentum is positive but not stretched. The 14-day RSI reads 61.12, placing it in the upper-neutral range, while the MACD (12, 26) level at 222.47 aligns with a buy signal. The ADX (14) at 19.93 sits below 25, indicating that the trend has not yet reached established strength. The Hull moving average (9) at 24,670.93 registers a sell signal, suggesting that short-term price may be running slightly ahead of its fastest trend measure.
On the topside, the classic R1 pivot at 24,430.50 has already been exceeded; a sustained daily close above current levels brings R2 at 26,181 into broader view. On pullbacks, the classic pivot point at 23,147 represents initial support, with the 100-day SMA at 24,225 acting as the nearest MA shelf; a move back below that level would raise the risk of a test toward S1 at 21,397 (TradingView, 21 April 2026).
This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Germany 40 index history (2024–2026)
The Germany 40 index closed at €17,941.3 on 22 April 2024, trading in a broadly sideways range through mid-2024 as investors weighed ECB rate expectations and a sluggish German industrial outlook. The index ended 2024 at €19,832.1, up roughly 10.5% on the year, before accelerating sharply higher through early 2026.
From the 1 January 2026 open of €24,521.2, the DE40 pushed to a multi-year peak of €25,268.0 on 27 February 2026, before a heavy sell-off through March and April 2026 tied to US tariff escalation pulled the index down to an intraday low of €18,808.7 on 7 April 2025. To keep the chronology clear, the two-year move is better read in sequence:
The DE40 opened 2025 at €19,847.7 and climbed steadily, topping out near €25,268 in late February 2026. A sharp tariff-driven reversal in early April 2025 sent the index to an intraday trough of €18,808.7 on 7 April 2025, its lowest point in the two-year window, before a partial recovery took hold; the index closed at €20,932.8 on 21 April 2025. From there, the DE40 rebuilt through the second half of 2025 and into early 2026, reaching €25,268.0 on 27 February 2026 before a second tariff-related pullback trimmed gains through late March, with the index touching €21,863.8 intraday on 23 March 2026.
DE40 closed at €24,592.1 on 21 April 2026 , approximately 0.3% up year to date from the 1 January 2026 open of €24,521.2, and 17.5% higher year on year from the 21 April 2025 close of €20,932.8.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.
Germany 40 (DE40): Capital.com analyst view
The DE40's performance over the past two years reflects the tension between Germany's structural economic challenges and the index's capacity for sharp recoveries. After climbing from around €19,832 at end-2024 to a multi-year peak near €25,268 in late February 2026, the index pulled back heavily amid US tariff escalation, touching an intraday low of €18,808.7 on 7 April 2025. The subsequent rebound to current levels near €24,592 illustrates the index's sensitivity to trade policy shifts – a dynamic that cuts both ways, as any renewed tariff escalation or deterioration in German industrial output could quickly reverse recent gains.
Looking at current conditions, the ECB's data-dependent stance and Germany's fiscal expansion programme offer potential support for earnings in cyclicals and industrials; however, the IMF's downgrade of Germany's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.8% serves as a counterweight, suggesting that the macro backdrop remains fragile. Export-heavy constituents may benefit from any trade de-escalation, yet the same names carry concentrated downside risk if negotiations stall.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for Germany 40 CFDs
As of 21 April 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Germany 40 CFDs stands at 63.4% long vs 36.6% short, which keeps sentiment in majority-buy territory, though it remains shy of extremes. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com at the time of capture and can change rapidly as market conditions evolve.
Summary – Germany 40 2026
- DE40 is trading at €24,598.2 as of 8:50am UTC on 21 April 2026, up 17.5% year on year from €20,932.8 on 21 April 2025.
- All 12 standard moving averages carry a buy signal on TradingView; the 14-day RSI sits at 61.12, in upper-neutral territory, while the ADX at 19.93 indicates that trend strength has not yet reached established levels.
- Key upside drivers include Germany's fiscal expansion programme, ECB rate stability, and earnings resilience in industrials and financials; downside risks centre on the IMF's 0.8% GDP growth forecast and ongoing US tariff exposure.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
What is the 5 year Germany 40 forecast?
A five-year Germany 40 forecast is inherently uncertain because index performance can change with economic growth, interest rates, corporate earnings, inflation, and trade policy. Over longer periods, forecasts tend to rely more on broad macro assumptions than on short-term price signals. That means projections should be treated as scenario-based views rather than fixed outcomes. For CFD traders, it may be more useful to monitor the drivers behind the index than to rely on a single long-range target.
Is Germany 40 a good CFD to trade?
Whether Germany 40 is a suitable CFD to trade depends on your objectives, risk tolerance, and trading approach. The index offers exposure to major German-listed companies and can appeal to traders looking for liquidity and clear macro drivers. At the same time, CFD trading carries significant risk, and the Germany 40 can react sharply to tariffs, central bank expectations, and growth data. It may suit some strategies, but it will not be appropriate for every trader.
Could Germany 40 go up or down?
Germany 40 could move in either direction, depending on how the key market drivers develop. Supportive factors may include stable ECB policy, improving earnings expectations, or reduced trade tensions. Pressure could come from weaker German growth, renewed tariff risks, or broader risk-off sentiment across global equity markets. Technical indicators can help identify trend conditions, but they do not remove uncertainty. Price moves can remain volatile, especially around major economic releases and policy announcements.
Should I invest in Germany 40?
Whether you should invest in Germany 40 is a personal decision that depends on your financial situation, goals, and tolerance for risk. This article is for information only and does not provide investment advice or a recommendation. If you are considering exposure through CFDs, it is important to remember that leveraged products increase both potential gains and potential losses. Many traders first assess market conditions, risk-management tools, and their own strategy before deciding whether the index fits their approach.
Can I trade Germany 40 CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade Germany 40 CFDs on Capital.com. Trading index CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.