What is a credit rating and how do they work?

Credit rating

What is a credit rating?

A credit rating assesses the creditworthiness of a company or government, reflecting its ability to meet financial obligations, such as debt repayments. Credit rating agencies assign these ratings to indicate the likelihood of a borrower defaulting on their loans.

The rating is indicated through grades that represent the risk associated with assets like shares or bonds issued by the entity. Changes in credit ratings can impact the market price and perceived risk of these assets, influencing trader decisions and market activity.

How do credit ratings work?

Credit rating agencies analyse factors such as financial statements, debt levels and market conditions to evaluate the financial health of a government or company. They then assign a credit rating that reflects the entity’s ability to meet its financial obligations.

The three major credit rating agencies are Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings. Agencies that give higher scores when they’re confident that a company or government will repay its debts without issue, and lower scores when they think that a default is more likely.

Here are some ways that credit ratings can impact asset prices:

  • Bonds – rating downgrades could cause bond prices to fall and yields to rise, while an upgrade could cause bond prices to increase and yields to decrease.

  • Stocks – changes in credit rating might impact risk perception and share prices.

  • Derivatives trading – ratings help traders assess risk and develop trading strategies

  

Corporate vs sovereign credit ratings

There are two main types of credit rating that apply to trading, corporate and sovereign. 

Corporate credit ratings assess the creditworthiness of companies, with consideration of financial performance, debt levels, industry conditions and credit history. These ratings can influence the price of shares issued by publicly listed companies.

Sovereign credit ratings evaluate the ability of a government to meet its financial obligations by reviewing economic indicators, political stability, monetary policy, inflation and national debt. These ratings may shift the market price of government bonds.

We can categorise these types based on the timeframe associated with the rating. Shorter-term ratings indicate likelihood of a potential borrower failing to repay its debts in less than a year. Longer-term ratings can extend further in the future.

What are the different ratings?

All of the major credit rating agencies use a letter-based system to grade creditworthiness, with slight variations in their scales. 


Investment grade ratings
 

Investment grade

S&P

Moody’s

Fitch

Description

AAA

Aaa

AAA

Highest quality, minimal risk

AA+

Aa1

AA+

High quality, very low credit risk

AA

Aa2

AA

High quality, low credit risk

AA-

Aa3

AA-

High quality, low credit risk

A+

A1

A+

Upper-medium grade, low credit risk

A

A2

A

Upper-medium grade, susceptible to change

A-

A3

A-

Upper-medium grade, susceptible to change

BBB+

Baa1

BBB+

Lower-medium grade, moderate risk

BBB

Baa2

BBB

Lower-medium grade, moderate risk

BBB-

Baa3

BBB-

Lower-medium grade, moderate risk

Investment grade ratings are the highest a borrower can achieve, indicating a strong likelihood of meeting debt obligations and a low risk of default. These ratings are critical because they enable companies and governments to borrow money at favourable terms.

AAA to A- (or A3 with regards to Moody’s) are often considered to be the highest grades while BBB+ to BBB- are known as ‘lower-medium grade’ credit ratings. 

Due to their attractiveness to traders, assets with these ratings don’t need to offer particularly high yields.


Non-investment grade ratings
 

Non-investment grade (junk bonds)

S&P

Moody’s

Fitch

Description

BB+

Ba1

BB+

Speculative, substantial credit risk

BB

Ba2

BB

Speculative, high credit risk

BB-

Ba3

BB-

Speculative, high credit risk

B+

B1

B+

Highly speculative, significant risk

B

B2

B

Highly speculative, significant risk

B-

B3

B-

Highly speculative, significant risk

CCC+

Caa1

CCC+

Substantial credit risk

CCC

Caa2

CCC

Extremely speculative

CCC-

Caa3

CCC-

Extremely speculative

CC

Ca

CC

Near default

C

C

C

Highly vulnerable, possibly in default

D

D

D

In default

Non-investment grades, often called ‘junk bonds’  imply a greater risk of default compared with investment-grade entities.

BB+ to B- grades may be given to governments or companies facing financial difficulties. While they represent an adequate ability to repay their debts, these entities are vulnerable to adverse economic conditions, which could impact their repayment ability.

CCC+ to CC grades indicate highly speculative assets, typically issued by companies at substantial risk of default, and a C grade implies that a borrower could fail to meet all of its debt obligations at any moment, potentially imminently.

D is the lowest possible credit rating, signifying that the entity is in, or about to enter, administration or bankruptcy, reflecting an inability to meet debt repayments.

What are RD and SD credit ratings?

While D is the lowest grade at Moody’s, there are two ratings that go even lower.

RD, or restricted default, is exclusively used by Fitch Ratings to indicate that a government or company has defaulted on one or more of its financial obligations, while continuing to meet others. The entity is still operational and has not yet entered bankruptcy or liquidation.

SD, or selective default, is used by Standard & Poor’s to show that a company has defaulted on at least one financial obligation. This rating suggests that the decision to default was deliberate, rather than a complete inability to pay.

FAQs

What is a credit rating?

Credit ratings assess the creditworthiness of a company or government, including the likelihood of whether they’ll default on any outstanding debt repayments. Credit rating agencies assess these potential borrowers and give a corporate or a sovereign credit rating, from AAA (highest) to D (lowest), to indicate their creditworthiness.

These ratings can have a substantial impact on market confidence, and as a result, changes in an entity's grade may influence the prices of assets they’ve issued – such as stocks or bonds.

Are credit ratings accurate?

Credit ratings should be used alongside fundamental and technical analysis.

These ratings provide valuable insights but they’re not always accurate predictors of financial distress. Instances like the 2008 financial crisis show that entities with high credit ratings can go bankrupt unexpectedly.

Can credit ratings change over time?

Credit rating agencies may adjust a government or company’s credit ratings based on new financial data, like changes to financial health and market conditions.

Why are credit ratings important in trading?

Credit ratings provide an indication of the risks involved when trading assets such as shares or bonds issued by a specific company or government. These ratings can potentially impact market prices and the perception of risk associated with these assets significantly.