Wall St Week Ahead-As tech swoon roils market, US inflation data on tap

By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Jolted investors head into next week with the US stock market on shaky ground, as deep selling in the pivotal AI trade creates unease ahead of the release of inflation data and earnings reports from several technology companies.

Stocks were slammed on Thursday by concerns that widespread victories by Democrats in Tuesday's US midterm elections would slow the AI data-center buildout. That fed anxiety about a trade that has been at the heart of the market's rally this year.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite .IXIC closed Thursday nearly 12% below its October 6 all-time high, exceeding the 10% threshold that confirms a correction. That and other major losses for equity indexes reversed the previous session's gains in the immediate aftermath of Tuesday's midterm elections, in which Democrats routed President Donald Trump's Republicans and won control of the US Congress.

With volatility rising, tests for the market arrive next week. On Tuesday, the government will release the monthly consumer price index report, perhaps the most closely watched inflation measure. There will also be earnings reports from tech companies CoreWeave CRWV.O, Applied Materials AMAT.O and Cisco Systems CSCO.O.

"It is a fragile momentum trade," said Marvin Loh, senior global macro strategist at State Street. "You have got this regulatory, political party overhang, which I think is going to stay with us until we really get a sense of how significant of a slowdown we're thinking about."

VOLATILITY SPIKES AFTER MIDTERM RESULTS

Stocks endured severe swings in the wake of Tuesday's midterms. In addition to winning control of the US Congress, Democrats also won several key governors' races in data-center-heavy states such as Texas. Public backlash about environmental and other concerns over the spread of data centers was a prominent issue in the midterms.

Sharp gains on Wednesday in major equity indexes were accompanied by a slide in oil prices. That gave way on Thursday to steep declines, when the Cboe Volatility Index .VIX also hit a seven-month high.

Selling was widespread on Thursday -- with all S&P 500 sectors ending lower -- but it was most acute among AI and tech stocks. The S&P 500 tech sector sank 7.3%, while the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index .SOX tumbled over 12% -- both posting their biggest one-day drops in more than six years.

Major indexes were still logging gains for the year, with the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX up over 7% in 2026.

"There are a lot of cross-currents and narratives right now that people are trying to grapple with in the wake of the (election) results," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist with Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

CPI TESTS DECEMBER RATE-HIKE BETS

The CPI report for October comes as investors are expecting the Fed to raise rates in December to fight inflation. The US central bank held steady last month after hiking in September for the first time in three years.

As the market swooned on Thursday, traders pulled back modestly on rate-hike bets, but Fed fund futures were still suggesting a roughly 65% chance the central bank hikes at its December 8-9 meeting, according to LSEG data.

Investors also will focus on the CPI report for clues to the Fed's rate path into 2027, with about two more standard 25-basis-point increases expected in total for this cycle.

"If you get a hot number and then you start adding additional tightening because the inflationary environment looks like it's accelerating, that's just something else that investors would have to absorb," Loh said.

After a busy slate of corporate results, the schedule calms next week. Several reports could be consequential for the tech and AI trade, including CoreWeave, the cloud company at the center of concerns about financing the AI buildout. Its shares have been pummeled in recent weeks.

"If they do have a little bit more of a cautiously optimistic view in terms of being able to find ways to get projects across the finish line, that I think helps to kind of alleviate some of these concerns," said Natixis' Melson.

As of Thursday trading, tech was underperforming the S&P 500 over the past month by its largest amount since May 2002, according to Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services.

"We are now seeing something of a buyers’ strike in tech," Lerner said in a note.