US natgas prices settle lower on forecasts for milder weather, lower demand
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures settled down by about 2% on Monday on forecasts for milder weather and less demand next week than previously expected.
Limiting losses was a continued drop in daily output to a four-month low and an increase in daily gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants to a five-month high.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 5.3 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $3.167 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its highest since September 24.
Gas futures were on track to rise for a third straight montyhly rise. Last week, speculators boosted their net short futures and options positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange to the highest levels since February 2024, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
In the spot market, mild weather and pipeline issues trapping some gas in the US Northeast region helped pressure next-day prices at the Enbridge South hub in southwest Pennsylvania down to around 61 cents per mmBtu, their lowest since November 2020.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September to 110.7 bcfd so far in October due to a combination of Hurricane Isaias production shut-ins and force majeure incidents and other problems on pipelines in Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and elsewhere over the past month or so.
On a daily basis, LSEG said output was on track to drop to a four-month low of around 108.9 bcfd on Monday even as production slowly returns in the Gulf of Mexico after Isaias.
The US Marine Minerals Administration, which oversees development of offshore energy, said about 25% or 0.5 bcfd of offshore Gulf of Mexico gas was still shut-in on Monday, down from a peak of 59% or 1.3 bcfd shut-in on October 9 when Isaias crashed into the Florida Panhandle.
With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 104.8 bcfd this week to 107.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants fell to 17.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 17.9 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to rise to a five-month high of 18.8 bcfd on Monday with the return to near full service of Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd plant in Texas around October 9 and Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point in Maryland around October 12.
Week ended Oct 9 Forecast | Week ended Oct 2 Actual | Year ago Oct 9 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 9 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +77 | +85 | +80 | +90 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,577 | 3,500 | 3,710 | 3,522 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +1.6% | +2.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.14 | 3.22 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 27.23 | 26.59 | 10.88 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 25.98 | 25.96 | 11.11 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 114 | 108 | 116 | 128 | 143 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 57 | 62 | 44 | 47 | 35 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 171 | 170 | 160 | 175 | 178 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 111.1 | 109.5 | 110.6 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 118.1 | 116.5 | 117.9 | 114.0 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 17.0 | 18.6 | 18.9 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 5.8 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 5.1 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 38.7 | 35.1 | 31.5 | 33.4 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 22.4 | 22.3 | 23.2 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 79.8 | 76.4 | 79.0 | 79.1 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 106.5 | 104.3 | 107.4 | 104.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 92 | 93 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 86 | 88 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 86 | 89 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 16 | Week ended Oct 9 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 17 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 37 | 44 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 15 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.10 | 3.24 | 3.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 0.88 | 0.88 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.56 | 3.69 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 0.61 | 0.88 | 2.12 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.44 | 2.63 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.17 | 0.84 | 2.51 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.20 | 4.09 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.89 | 1.86 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.24 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 36.00 | 36.00 | 44.36 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 123.96 | 81.28 | 57.52 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 48.36 | 34.25 | 45.49 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 25.83 | 31.70 | 26.78 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 36.26 | 41.04 | 27.16 | 28.44 | 53.02 |