SNG: Nigerian Stock Exchange : $123.4bln Foreign money, oil stocks drive fresh market record

By Zawya

By Staff Writer

The nation’s equities market ended the week at a fresh record high, with market capitalisation climbing to N163.66 trillion, as the return of foreign investors, following Nigeria’s re-entry into the FTSE Russell Frontier Market Index combined with renewed buying of energy stocks to extend the NGX bull run.

The market value, which stood at N162.16 trillion at the close of trading on Friday, September 18, rose by about N1.50 trillion, or 0.93 per cent, during the five-session week ended September 25. The NGX All-Share Index similarly advanced from 249,804.56 points to 252,113.41 points, representing a weekly gain of about 0.92 per cent.

The latest record came barely a week after the NGX crossed the N162 trillion capitalisation threshold for the first time, underscoring the speed at which equities have recovered from the sharp correction recorded earlier in the year.

But while the numbers point to another broad market rally, the underlying drivers suggest a more nuanced picture: FTSE-linked foreign and institutional buying provided an important catalyst at the start of the week, while energy stocks became a major source of upward momentum later in the week.

Nigeria formally returned to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market classification on Monday, September 21, after being moved to ‘Unclassified’ status in 2023 amid concerns over foreign-exchange liquidity, capital repatriation and market accessibility. FTSE Russell’s decision followed improvements in those areas and the country’s transition from T+2 to T+1 settlement.

The reclassification immediately produced evidence of targeted buying. On Monday, the first trading session under the new classification, the NGX All-Share Index rose 0.14 per cent to 250,156.80 points, while market capitalisation increased to N162.39 trillion. Reports indicated that foreign and institutional investors targeted tier-one banking stocks, particularly those included in the FTSE Frontier index basket.

The buying broadened on Tuesday, pushing the index another 0.18 per cent higher to 250,614.66 points and lifting market capitalisation to N162.68 trillion. Fourteen of the 31 Nigerian stocks in the FTSE Russell basket gained that day, with Stanbic IBTC Holdings, United Bank for Africa and Fidelity Bank among the major advancers.

Banking stocks were particularly important to the early-week rally. On Tuesday alone, financial-sector equities accounted for a substantial share of market activity, with Fidelity Bank, Zenith Bank, Access Holdings, Sterling Financial Holdings and GTCO among the most actively traded stocks.

However, the market’s record run cannot be attributed exclusively to foreign capital.

By Wednesday, buying had spread across a wider group of domestic equities, with 43 stocks gaining against 20 decliners, lifting market capitalisation by N374.1 billion to ₦163.06 trillion and the ASI by 0.23 percent to 251,191.02 points.

The decisive sectoral shift came on Thursday, when the NGX Oil & Gas Index surged 3.95 percent, making it the day’s strongest sector and helping push the overall market capitalisation up by N622.51 billion to N163.68 trillion.

The ASI gained 0.38 per cent to a record 252,150.01 points.

Seplat Energy was central to the energy-sector advance, rising 7.33 per cent to ₦16,000, while the wider oil and gas sector attracted renewed buying interest.

The Thursday surge is significant because it shows that the market’s latest record is not being driven by a single trade or one group of stocks. The rally has rotated between financials, large-cap equities and energy names, although the intensity of buying has varied from session to session.

Friday provided the clearest indication that investors were beginning to take profits after the record-setting run. The ASI slipped marginally by 0.015 per cent to 252,113.41 points, while market capitalisation eased by about N20 billion to N163.66 trillion. Yet market breadth remained positive, with 39 gainers against 27 decliners, suggesting that the marginal retreat did not represent a broad reversal of sentiment.

The more important question for the market now is whether the renewed foreign visibility created by the FTSE reclassification can translate into sustained portfolio inflows rather than a short-lived repricing of selected large-cap stocks.

The reclassification creates the opportunity for Nigerian equities to return to the radar of global frontier-market investors. NGX Group said the inclusion of Nigerian companies in the FTSE Frontier Index Series should increase the market’s visibility and potentially stimulate global investor appetite.

That opportunity, however, comes with a requirement for the market to demonstrate greater depth, liquidity and accessibility. The fact that buying following the FTSE event was selective rather than uniformly spread across the market also suggests that international investors may initially concentrate on the largest and most liquid Nigerian stocks.

For domestic investors, the implications are equally important. A sustained return of foreign participation could increase turnover and liquidity in large-cap equities, while potentially narrowing the valuation discount attached to Nigerian stocks. But stronger foreign participation would also make the market more sensitive to global portfolio flows, meaning that changes in international risk appetite could amplify both rallies and corrections.

The latest record therefore represents more than another numerical milestone for the NGX. It is an early test of whether Nigeria’s return to the global frontier market investment universe can convert renewed international attention into deeper and more durable capital-market participation.

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