CEE MARKETS-Global risk-off hits FX

By Reuters News

- Central Eastern European currencies remained under pressure on Friday, led lower by the zloty, as risks of higher energy prices and AI funding woes drove investor wariness towards emerging market assets.

  • A rout in global tech shares eased on Friday, after concerns over the enormous funding needs of AI had hammered Wall Street and triggered the biggest rally in Treasuries in over three years.

  • Still, there was no letup from oil prices, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and reports that the US and Israel had drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections lifted Brent to a new five-month peak of $114 a barrel.

  • "Global risk sentiment deteriorated as concerns around AI-related capital spending and escalating geopolitical tensions drove a selloff in equities, a rally in safe-haven government bonds, and broad EM currency weakness," Morgan Stanley wrote in a note.

  • According to ING analysts, the Central Eastern European "region is demonstrating admirable resilience; despite some fluctuations in rates, the FX market remains relatively robust. Even so, we maintain a bearish outlook on CEE currencies in general."

  • The Polish zloty traded 0.4% lower against the euro by 0950 GMT.

  • The Hungarian forint shed 0.3% to 366.95 per euro, while the Czech crown eased 0.1% to 24.31 against the common currency.

  • Czech National Bank Deputy Governor Jan Frait told Bloomberg in an interview published on Thursday that there was a "relatively strong" case to raise interest rates but a move was not a done deal because there were also factors against it in financial market developments.

  • "Although the market interpreted the interview as dovish, we view it as preparation for a rate hike," ING said.

  • ING also said that, as comments from other policymakers were likely to be more hawkish, "this supports further strengthening of the crown, despite a significantly negative global environment".

  • The Czech currency could test the 24.200–24.250 range, according to ING.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1150 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

24.3100

24.2750

-0.14%

-0.59%

Hungarian forint

366.9500

365.7000

-0.34%

+4.75%

Polish zloty

4.3960

4.3765

-0.44%

-4.10%

Romanian leu

5.3497

5.3497

+0.00%

-4.78%

Serbian dinar

117.4000

117.5000

+0.09%

-0.09%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Budapest

.BUX

142048.59

142048.59

+0.00%

+27.94%

Warsaw

.WIG20

4150.03

4193.28

-1.03%

+30.34%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

4.3822

0.0185

+136bps

+1bps

Czech Rep 5-year

4.7772

-0.0221

+165bps

-2bps

Czech Rep 10-year

5.3542

-0.0358

+202bps

-3bps

Poland 2-year

4.7870

-0.2500

+177bps

-26bps

Poland 5-year

6.0090

-0.0500

+288bps

-5bps

Poland 10-year

6.4130

-0.0270

+308bps

-2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

,

4.27

4.60

4.79

3.94

Poland

,

4.25

4.60

4.78

3.91

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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