CEE MARKETS-FX hold off of recent lows, stocks up as oil prices ease

By Reuters News

- Central Europe's main currencies held off of recent lows on Monday while stock markets gained ground as oil prices retreated, with investors in the region still eyeing Romania's political stalemate and comments from Polish central bankers.

  • The Polish zloty was a touch weaker at 4.3875 to the euro as investors watched developments in the global market, as well as signs policymakers in Warsaw may opt for an interest rate rise in the coming months. The dollar's strength has put pressure on central Europe in recent trading.

  • "From a global perspective, the key factor for the dollar will be the US CPI reading for September - which could influence market pricing regarding the Fed's future interest rate path," PKO Bank analysts wrote.

  • Poland's Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates unchanged last week and central bank Governor Adam Glapinski said the MPC was ready to act in case risks to inflation rise.

  • Market participants interpreted the central bank's message mostly as suggesting that a rate hike in November was unlikely.

  • There is a high chance that Polish interest rates will stay stable until the end of the year, central banker Przemyslaw Litwiniuk told broadcaster TVN24 on Sunday.

  • On Monday, however, central banker Henryk Wnorowski said he is "certainly considering" the scenario of an interest rate hike in November, the PAP news agency reported.

  • The Hungarian forint was up 0.1% and trading at 364.95 to the euro, within its recent range.

  • "The forint is awaiting the government's 2027 budget announcement but remains exposed to higher energy prices and a stronger US dollar," ING wrote in a client note.

  • The Romanian leu was higher, up 0.1% and trading at 5.3385 versus the euro, with the next steps in months-long political stalemate so far giving support.

  • Romania's centrist President Nicusor Dan last week nominated diplomat Luca Niculescu as prime minister, his fourth nomination in five months since a broad pro-European coalition government collapsed in a no-confidence vote.

  • Elsewhere, the Czech crown was 0.1% lower at 24.390 to the euro.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1026 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

24.3900

24.3740

-0.07%

-0.92%

Hungary forint

365.1500

365.4500

+0.08%

+5.26%

Polish zloty

4.3890

4.3865

-0.06%

-3.95%

Romanian leu

5.3385

5.3434

+0.09%

-4.58%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2600.34

2576.7700

+0.91%

-3.18%

Budapest

.BUX

142278.67

141671.00

+0.43%

+28.14%

Warsaw

.WIG20

4209.12

4185.52

+0.56%

+32.20%

Bucharest

.BETI

33470.03

33400.45

+0.21%

+36.95%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

4.3688

0.0278

+128bps

+3bps

Czech Rep 5-year

4.6862

-0.0078

+146bps

+1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

5.3257

0.0154

+186bps

+4bps

Poland 2-year

4.7010

0.0370

+161bps

+4bps

Poland 5-year

5.9030

-0.0480

+268bps

-3bps

Poland 10-year

6.2990

-0.0500

+284bps

-3bps

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