CEE MARKETS-Central European currencies little changed as markets await ECB rate decision

By Reuters News

- Central European currencies saw little change on Thursday ahead of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, while the dollar weakened slightly after the US Federal Reserve kept borrowing costs unchanged.

The Fed on Wednesday opted to defer any change in interest rates until after next week's midterm elections while awaiting further data on inflation, which it said "remains elevated."

The market expects ECB to do the same on Thursday. Questions regarding support for European government bonds will be key to this, given the current pressure on the debt market.

The Polish zloty gained 0.18% to 4.3960 against the euro, continuing to recover from Wednesday's trough of 4.410 — its lowest since November 2023.

"The zloty remains heavily influenced by the external environment; consequently, tomorrow's preliminary domestic inflation data is unlikely to generate much of a reaction," ING said in a report.

On Friday, the market will see preliminary inflation data for Poland in October, which will be an important factor in the context of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) meeting on interest rates scheduled for next week.

The Hungarian forint , meanwhile, strengthened slightly, by 0.22%, to trade at 366.20 to the euro. "The euro-forint exchange rate continues to be at the 200-day moving average," brokerage Equilor said in a note.

The resistance is currently at 367.04, and if it breaks through, the 369.50-370.00 zone may be reachable, while an important support can be seen between 364.70 and 365.30 at the bottom, it added.

Elsewhere, the Romanian leu remains largely unchanged at 5.3480 per euro, while the Czech crown gained 0.12% to 24.3350.

According to analysts, regional currencies may remain close to current levels until the outcome of the US midterm elections becomes clear, as it could affect the course of US-Iran negotiations and, consequently, energy commodity prices.


CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1049 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Czech crown

24.3350

24.3650

+0.12%

-0.69%

Hungary forint

366.2000

367.0000

+0.22%

+4.96%

Polish zloty

4.3960

4.4040

+0.18%

-4.10%

Romanian leu

5.3480

5.3490

+0.02%

-4.75%

Serbian dinar

117.4500

117.5200

+0.06%

-0.13%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Prague

.PX

2641.95

2638.2300

+0.14%

-1.63%

Budapest

.BUX

146400.58

145330.87

+0.74%

+31.85%

Warsaw

.WIG20

4269.25

4247.19

+0.52%

+34.08%

Bucharest

.BETI

34732.83

34660.45

+0.21%

+42.12%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

4.4245

0.0013

+136bps

+4bps

Czech Rep 5-year

4.8559

0.0359

+169bps

+7bps

Czech Rep 10-year

5.3932

0.0048

+204bps

+3bps







Poland 2-year

4.7090

-0.0130

+164bps

+3bps

Poland 5-year

5.9850

-0.0700

+282bps

-3bps

Poland 10-year

6.4390

-0.0430

+308bps

-2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

,

4.31

4.67

4.87

3.95

Poland

,

4.24

4.62

4.82

3.92

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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