CEE MARKETS-Central European currencies little changed as markets await ECB rate decision
WARSAW, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Central European currencies saw little change on Thursday ahead of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, while the dollar weakened slightly after the US Federal Reserve kept borrowing costs unchanged.
The Fed on Wednesday opted to defer any change in interest rates until after next week's midterm elections while awaiting further data on inflation, which it said "remains elevated."
The market expects ECB to do the same on Thursday. Questions regarding support for European government bonds will be key to this, given the current pressure on the debt market.
The Polish zloty gained 0.18% to 4.3960 against the euro, continuing to recover from Wednesday's trough of 4.410 — its lowest since November 2023.
"The zloty remains heavily influenced by the external environment; consequently, tomorrow's preliminary domestic inflation data is unlikely to generate much of a reaction," ING said in a report.
On Friday, the market will see preliminary inflation data for Poland in October, which will be an important factor in the context of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) meeting on interest rates scheduled for next week.
The Hungarian forint , meanwhile, strengthened slightly, by 0.22%, to trade at 366.20 to the euro. "The euro-forint exchange rate continues to be at the 200-day moving average," brokerage Equilor said in a note.
The resistance is currently at 367.04, and if it breaks through, the 369.50-370.00 zone may be reachable, while an important support can be seen between 364.70 and 365.30 at the bottom, it added.
Elsewhere, the Romanian leu remains largely unchanged at 5.3480 per euro, while the Czech crown gained 0.12% to 24.3350.
According to analysts, regional currencies may remain close to current levels until the outcome of the US midterm elections becomes clear, as it could affect the course of US-Iran negotiations and, consequently, energy commodity prices.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1049 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Czech crown | 24.3350 | 24.3650 | +0.12% | -0.69% | |
Hungary forint | 366.2000 | 367.0000 | +0.22% | +4.96% | |
Polish zloty | 4.3960 | 4.4040 | +0.18% | -4.10% | |
Romanian leu | 5.3480 | 5.3490 | +0.02% | -4.75% | |
Serbian dinar | 117.4500 | 117.5200 | +0.06% | -0.13% | |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
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STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Prague | .PX | 2641.95 | 2638.2300 | +0.14% | -1.63% |
Budapest | .BUX | 146400.58 | 145330.87 | +0.74% | +31.85% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 4269.25 | 4247.19 | +0.52% | +34.08% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 34732.83 | 34660.45 | +0.21% | +42.12% |
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BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | 4.4245 | 0.0013 | +136bps | +4bps | |
Czech Rep 5-year | 4.8559 | 0.0359 | +169bps | +7bps | |
Czech Rep 10-year | 5.3932 | 0.0048 | +204bps | +3bps | |
Poland 2-year | 4.7090 | -0.0130 | +164bps | +3bps | |
Poland 5-year | 5.9850 | -0.0700 | +282bps | -3bps | |
Poland 10-year | 6.4390 | -0.0430 | +308bps | -2bps | |
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FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | , | 4.31 | 4.67 | 4.87 | 3.95 |
Poland | , | 4.24 | 4.62 | 4.82 | 3.92 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices | |||||