Aluminum maker Alcoa Q3 revenue misses estimates on lower aluminum prices, shipments

Overview

• Global aluminum producer's Q3 revenue declined sequentially and missed analyst expectations

• Adjusted EPS and adjusted net income for Q3 beat analyst expectations

• Company advanced AliGroup acquisition and completed Alumar smelter restart

Outlook

• Alcoa reaffirms 2026 alumina production guidance of 9.5-9.6 mln metric tons

• Company maintains 2026 aluminum production outlook at 2.4-2.6 mln metric tons

• Alcoa expects higher Q4 production and shipments in both alumina and aluminum segments

Result Drivers

• ALUMINA SEGMENT - Higher alumina prices and increased shipments supported alumina segment revenue

• ALUMINUM SEGMENT - Lower aluminum prices and shipments weighed on aluminum segment revenue

• MARK-TO-MARKET GAINS - Favorable mark-to-market changes on Ma’aden shares and energy contracts contributed to net income

Company press release:

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 9 "strong buy" or "buy", 4 "hold" and 1 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the aluminum peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Alcoa Corp is $57.50, about 43.5% above its October 14 closing price of $40.08

• The stock recently traded at 7 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 7 three months ago

Reuters Recommended Reads

• Oct 14 - Japan Q4 aluminium premiums fall 35% as Middle Eastern supplies recover

• Oct 15 - China's aluminium output expected to grow 0.9% in 2027 to 45.7 mln tons, Antaike says

For questions concerning the data in this report, contact Estimates.Support@lseg.com. For any other questions or feedback, contact reuters.support@thomsonreuters.com.

(This story was created using Reuters automation and AI based on LSEG and company data. It was checked and edited by a Reuters journalist prior to publication.)