How to Analyse Apple Before Earnings
Apple’s quarterly results have generally been better than analyst forecasts, with EPS missing estimates only once over the last 21 quarters.
Over that same period, revenue beat estimates in 19 of the 21 quarters shown, only missing estimates twice. Across the positive surprises shown, EPS exceeded the consensus mean estimate by an average of 7.5%. Positive revenue surprises averaged 2.9%.
(Source: LSEG, as of 16 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
More than half of Apple’s revenue comes from iPhone sales, which represented 51% of Apple’s total revenue in the fiscal second quarter of 2026. Historically, iPhone revenue has varied seasonally, with the highest totals typically recorded in the fiscal first quarter and the lowest in the fiscal third quarter. This aligns with the calendar-year fourth quarter, following the release of the new iPhone models and the holiday season.
Services revenue has steadily increased for Apple and is now its second largest driver of revenue, accounting for 28% of sales in the fiscal second quarter of 2026, up from 18% in the fiscal first quarter of 2023. As a result, Services has become a larger part of Apple’s revenue mix.
(Source: LSEG, as of 16 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Services revenue growth has been consistently positive, ranging from roughly 5.5% to 16.3% per quarter year-over-year from the fiscal first quarter of 2023 through the fiscal second quarter of 2026, and holding in the low-to-mid teens since late 2023. This sustained growth has helped Services account for a larger share of Apple's overall revenue.
(Source: LSEG, as of 16 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
iPhone growth was mixed or negative through fiscal Q2 2025, with revenue growth reaching 13.5% in the fiscal third quarter of 2025. In the fiscal first and second quarters of 2026, revenue growth has exceeded 20%.
(Source: LSEG, as of 16 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Options-Implied Earnings Range
Options prices can be used to calculate an implied trading range around an earnings announcement. Across the ten announcements shown, the one-week at-the-money options-implied ranges were approximately ±5% to ±7%. The next-session share-price move remained within the calculated range in nine cases and was outside it in one.
The implied range was estimated using the one-week at-the-money implied volatility observed at the close on the day of the earnings announcement, scaled to the option's one-week term (implied volatility × √(7/365)) and applied to the share price. This yields a one-standard-deviation range based on option prices. It does not represent a forecast or assign a direction to the share-price move.
(Source: LSEG, as of 16 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Valuation Metrics
As of 16 July 2026, Apple’s forward price-to-earnings ratio, based on analysts’ estimates for the next twelve months, is 34.8. From June 2021 through July 2026, Apple's average P/E was 27.5, and its median was 27.4, so its P/E is currently above both its historical average and median over the period.
Historical valuation multiples provide context for how the market has priced the company over time. No conclusion about whether the shares are currently overvalued or undervalued is drawn from these historical comparisons.
(Source: LSEG, as of 16 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
As of 16 July 2026, Apple’s forward price-to-sales ratio, based on analysts’ consensus next-twelve-month revenue estimates, is 8.6. From June 2021 through July 2026, its average P/S ratio was 7.1, and its median was 7.1, so the ratio is currently above both its historical average and median over the period.
(Source: LSEG, as of 16 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
Over the period shown, Apple’s trailing-12-month EPS recorded an average year-over-year growth rate of 18.9%, with a median of 10.4%. Revenue growth averaged 9.1%, with a median of 6.0%. In the fiscal second quarter of 2026, the corresponding observations were 16.6% for EPS growth and 12.8% for revenue growth.
(Source: LSEG, as of 16 July 2026. Calculations based on LSEG data)
(Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results)
The charts and data provide historical context for Apple’s financial performance and its two largest business segments. Over the 21 quarters shown, the company reported better-than-expected EPS in 20 quarters and revenue in 19. In nine of the ten earnings announcements analysed, Apple’s next-session share-price move remained within the options-implied range. Its current forward price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios are also above their respective averages and medians over the five-year period shown. These observations do not indicate how Apple’s forthcoming results or share price will perform, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.