The taming of UK inflation: sterling pressures ease

The Bank of England governor is off the hook - for now. UK inflation came in at 3% in October, holding steady at the previous month's level.

Had the rate risen even by just a 0.1 percentage point, as most had expected, Mark Carney, governor of the UK central bank, would have been obliged to send the chancellor of the exchequer a letter of explanation as to why the rate of consumer price inflation (CPI) has risen so far above the Bank's 2% target rate.

Slowing consumer activity

But how are prices shaping up for future months? Can slowing consumer activity keep a lid on prices?

It has become evident from official data, sales results from the UK retail sector and survey reports from consumer groups that retail sales growth is slowing.

The rate of inflation is just half the story. The failure of wage growth to match rising prices has put the UK consumer in a difficult place. Consumer debt levels are high enough already and few are now willing to borrow further, despite high levels of employment.

The effects of the weak pound have nearly finished being felt in rising prices, analysts believe: PA Images

Weak sterling

Meanwhile, the weak pound continues to erode the purchasing power of UK importers, making foreign goods more expensive and increasing manufacturers' input costs for imported raw materials.

All of this adds to the inflationary pressures felt by UK consumers.

But there is some easing of those pressures apparent. Producer prices were shown to be easing, according to Tuesday's data from the Office for National Statistics. Input costs and factory gate prices both eased in October, leading to some hopes the worst of the inflationary pressures are over for now.

What the City analysts think

Schroders - Azad Zangana: "Overall, the latest inflation figures show that the depreciation in sterling is still causing prices to rise faster than in recent years.

"However, this appears to be close to an end. Data from producers show that both input and output prices peaked months ago, which should mean that we are close to a peak in CPI inflation.

"The rise in global oil prices in recent weeks could slow the fall in inflation which we are forecasting, and is likely to squeeze households further, keeping GDP growth subdued."

ING - James Smith: "But for the Bank of England, what matters is that this probably represents the peak for inflation. Over coming months, we expect headline CPI to trend lower, reaching the 2.3%-2.4% area by Easter time.

"As the currency effect starts to peter out, the question is whether domestically-generated price pressures start to take over."

Capital Economics - Ruth Gregory: "The latest producer price figures showed that the rise in firms’ cost pressures has continued to ease. Indeed, input price inflation fell back from 8.1% in September, to 4.6% in October. And factory gate (output) price inflation edged down from 3.3% to 2.8% too.

"Overall then, we think that CPI inflation will be back below 3% by the end of the year."

Pantheon Macroeconomics - Samuel Tombs: "It is too soon to say whether this [dip back to 3%] reflects volatility or a more lasting squeeze on retailers’ ability to pass on higher import prices to consumers in the midst of a housing market slowdown.

"Retailers have nearly finished passing on higher import prices to consumers, and domestically-generated inflation still looks weak."

IHS Markit - Chris Williamson: "The recent surge in price pressures has primarily due to the depreciation of the sterling since last year’s EU referendum, which has increased the cost of imported goods and services, but today’s numbers will add to the sense that the worst of this impact has already passed.

"Despite the unchanged inflation rate, the combination of high inflation and meagre wage growth means that real pay continues to fall, the consequence of which is being increasingly felt on the high street.

"Retail sales data this week are likely to show spending on the high street having fallen in October as households struggle to maintain the recent pace of spending."

Infinox - Jacob Deppe: "There is debate in the markets about whether November’s interest rate rise was a ‘one and done’ rise or whether we will see further rate rises in the coming months.

"Today’s CPI data eases the pressure for another interest rate rise in the next few months considerably."

OFX - Jake Trask: "The feeling is that inflation has now peaked in the UK, easing the spending squeeze on consumers. Attention will now turn to tomorrow’s wage growth data, to see if the spread of CPI over wages narrows.