What’s been driving the euro versus Canadian dollar rate in 2021? And what’s the EUR to CAD forecast as we head into 2022? We answer these questions by looking at analysts’ predictions and more to consider when trading the EUR versus the CAD.
EUR/CAD analysis: Where is the pair now?
EUR/CAD news in 2021 reflected the story of a strengthening Canadian economy following the shock of Covid-19. As the Canadian dollar has strengthened, the EUR/CAD exchange rate has steadily slipped. From a high of 1.56 at the beginning of the year, the rate fell to 1.42 on 24 November – a sign of the Canadian economy’s rapid recovery post Covid-19.
The exchange rate fell as the world grappled with an energy crisis. Canada, a key oil producer, has seen its currency strengthen.
The EUR/CAD exchange rate forecast over the next six months, according to analysts, is for further depreciation, with the Canadian central bank moving towards hiking interest rates, while the European Central Bank appears to be years away from a rate hike. The exchange rate, according to experts at Scotiabank, can reach 1.40 by the end of the year and 1.38 in the first half of 2022.
Euro to CAD chart: Technical analysis
Current market sentiment for the EUR/CAD pair reflects expectations that the euro has bottomed out versus the Canadian dollar. This is despite the rising cases of Covid-19 in Europe.
Analysts at Scotiabank see more downside risks for the pair, with short-term resistance at 1.44. According to Scotiabank’s experts, given that the pair recently broke the support of 1.42, there are more chances of it slipping to 1.38 by the first half of 2022. Analysts at Citibank are also bearish on the pair.
At the time of writing (24 November), data from Capital.com shows trader sentiment at 89% bullish and 11% bearish. The data is calculated automatically, based on open positions for EUR/CAD on the platform and should not be considered as an incentive to trade the asset.
EUR to CAD forecast: Key fundamental drivers
Commodity prices, especially for oil, heavily influence the CAD – Canada is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer. Local economic factors, such as the Bank of Canada’s outlook on interest rates and inflation, also affect CAD price movement.
It’s a riskier currency, given swings in commodity and energy prices, and typically does well in a risk-on environment, when the global economy has a positive outlook and commodity and oil prices are rising.
The euro, with its $15trn economy and huge labour force, follows monetary movements within the European Union. It’s proven attractive in times of recent global uncertainty.
EUR/CAD forecast: What are the analysts saying?
The EUR/CAD prediction is bearish, according to analysts. With greater divergence than ever on the central banks’ path towards interest rates and crude oil prices holding firm, analysts at ING expect the EUR/CAD to fall to 1.38 by the end of the first half of 2022 and to 1.34 by the end of 2022.
Commenting on the CAD, ING analysts said that the “loonie is the safest commodity currency”. (The loonie is the CAD’s nickname, derived from the picture of a solitary loon on the reverse of the country’s $1 coin.)
“In Canada, the jobs market is at pre-pandemic levels, record-level investments keep supporting the growth outlook and a very successful vaccination campaign is allowing a loosening of the so-far very strict border policy. When adding that demand from the neighbouring US for Canadian exports is likely to keep rising, and Trudeau’s government pledged to keep fiscal policy loose for longer, the domestic economic story is set to remain positive for CAD,” the note added.
ING analysts also pointed to the shift in Bank of Canada’s hawkish stance in October by ending quantitative easing and signalling that an interest rate hike should arrive by the third quarter of 2022.
This suffers from the European Central Bank (ECB). “The ECB is widely expected to lag the Fed and the Bank of England in increasing its policy rates as the bank’s new strategy compels it to keep policy looser for longer. The ECB is not expected to increase policy rates until late-2023 at the earliest (and the rate-hiking cycle is set to be slow and narrow,” said analysts at Scotiabank in a note.
“The Bank of Canada is still likely to initiate its tightening cycle well ahead of its peers and this will drive the CAD higher against the USD, as well as the EUR and JPY, for example. We expect commodity prices to remain relatively well-supported as the global economy re-opens and supply disruptions maintain a premium on certain raw materials. Backwardation in the crude oil curve suggests that elevated crude oil prices are not expected to last but firm prices for commodities generally and improving Canadian terms of trade do provide a further tailwind for the CAD,” the note added.
Further boosting the CAD is the strength of its post-Covid-19 recovery, highlighted in key economic data such as inflation.
According to analysts’ views outlined above, the euro to Canadian dollar trend is one of further depreciation for at least another year.
When looking at EUR/CAD predictions, it’s important to bear in mind that analysts’ forecasts can be wrong. Analysts’ projections are based on making a fundamental and technical study of the currency pair’s performance. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Do your own research and always remember your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in this market, the spread of your investment portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money. And never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Key facts about EUR/CAD pair
The Euro (EUR) to Canadian dollar (CAD) exchange rate shows how many CAD are needed to buy one EUR.
The Canadian dollar is Canada's official currency. It’s the sixth most traded currency in the world, even though its gross domestic product (GDP) is the world’s ninth largest.
The euro is the official currency for 19 of the 27 European Union member countries. The currency was introduced in 2002, after a preparatory period of 40 years. The European Central bank and the European Commission are responsible for maintaining its value and stability.
It is also the second most-traded currency after the US dollar, accounting for 32.2% of all forex transactions.
The EUR/CAD maintains a ‘buy’ on Capital.com, with data showing 89% bullish and 11% bearish sentiment, as of 24 November 2021. Note that the data is calculated automatically, based on open positions for EUR/CAD on the platform. It should not be considered an incentive to trade the asset.
Whether you should buy or sell is your decision. Always remember that your decision to trade should depend on your attitude to risk, your expertise in this market, the spread of your investment portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money.
Given the divergence of the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank in terms of the interest rate hike cycle, analysts, as outlined above, expect the exchange rate to depreciate.
However, analyst views can go wrong. Keep in mind that past performance never guarantees future results, and conduct your own thorough technical and fundamental analysis before making any trading decision. And never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Read more: GBP/AUD forecast: Time for consolidation
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