US natural gas prices fall 3% on lower demand forecast, expectations of higher output
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures fell about 3% on Tuesday on forecasts for less demand this week than previously expected and the market's belief that daily output will soon rise after the Mountaineer XPress pipe in West Virginia returned to service last weekend.
On its first day as the front month, gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.5 cents, or 3.1%, from where the November contract closed on Monday to $3.011 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Tuesday.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has eased to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from a monthly record high of 112.3 bcfd in August.
Over the past week, however, output has averaged a much lower 109.4 bcfd, due in part to the force majeure that Canadian energy firm TC Energy's TRP.TO Columbia Gas Transmission unit declared on the Mountaineer XPress pipe on September 24.
Columbia Gas Transmission lifted the force majeure on September 27 after fixing a mechanical issue that affected around 1.4 bcfd to 1.8 bcfd of gas flows.
INVENTORY SURPLUS SHRINKING
Record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March, reaching a high of 7.7% above normal in April.
But hotter-than-normal weather over the summer forced energy firms to pull lots of gas from storage to fuel power plants needed to keep air conditioners humming, cutting the inventory surplus. About 40% of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
With the weather still hotter than normal, analysts predicted the amount of gas in storage slid to 2.4% above normal during the week ended September 25, down from 2.9% above normal in the previous week, according to estimates ahead of Thursday's weekly federal inventory report. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking forward, however, meteorologists predicted average weather across the country will remain mostly near normal through October 14.
LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 102.6 bcfd this week to 105.1 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally cooler. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants have risen to 17.9 bcfd so far in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, but have remained short of the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
The increase in average LNG feedgas in September has occurred despite the shutdown of US energy firm Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland around September 19 for a few weeks of annual maintenance.
Around the world, gas traded near $23 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and $26 at the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Sep 25 Forecast | Week ended Sep 18 Actual | Year ago Sep 25 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Sep 25 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +65 | +53 | +56 | +80 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,416 | 3,351 | 3,553 | 3,336 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +2.4% | +2.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.09 | 3.11 | 3.01 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 23.38 | 24.43 | 11.13 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 26.08 | 25.82 | 11.32 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 67 | 67 | 40 | 70 | 94 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 91 | 89 | 92 | 80 | 59 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 158 | 156 | 132 | 150 | 153 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | five-year (2021-2025) average for Month | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 111.6 | 109.3 | 109.9 | 107.4 | 101.5 |
US Imports from Canada | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.7 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 118.7 | 116.8 | 117.4 | 114.8 | 109.2 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
US Exports to Mexico | 7.7 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 17.6 | 17.8 | 17.9 | 15.8 | 12.6 |
US Commercial | 5.3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
US Residential | 4.2 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
US Power Plant | 40.7 | 36.3 | 35.5 | 39.8 | 38.4 |
US Industrial | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.4 | 22.0 | 22.1 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.9 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 80.1 | 75.7 | 77.5 | 78.2 | 77.8 |
Total US Demand | 107.9 | 102.6 | 105.1 | 103.3 | 99.5 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 83 | 83 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 90 | 90 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 93 | 93 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 2 | Week ended Sep 25 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 8 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 41 | 43 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 16 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.13 | 3.21 | 2.97 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.60 | 0.74 | 1.85 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.60 | 3.56 | 3.74 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) | 1.46 | 0.76 | 1.75 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.67 | 2.71 | 2.81 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.75 | 0.94 | 2.18 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.11 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 2.02 | 2.16 | -0.06 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.34 | 1.32 | 0.22 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 43.88 | 45.00 | 38.84 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 83.35 | 58.85 | 51.24 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 31.56 | 45.81 | 56.16 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 25.04 | 28.86 | 38.04 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 29.78 | 29.95 | 36.05 | 28.44 | 53.02 |