QIC flags risk oil above USD 100/bbl forces global central banks back into tightening mode

By Public Technologies
  • QIC flagged rising oil prices as the key swing factor, risking a shift to a “Malignant” scenario with Brent above USD 100/bbl into 2027.
  • Core inflation re-accelerated in major economies, pushing the Fed, ECB, RBA, BoJ, BoC, BoE toward renewed tightening over 12 months.
  • Market pricing implied RBA cash rate at 5% by May, fed funds at 4.8% by July 2027, ECB policy rate at 3.4% by July 2027.
  • Higher real yields lifted the cost of capital; a 0.9 percentage-point rise in US 10-year real yields since early March risked 15% equity downside.
  • AI-driven capex and wealth effects supported growth and stocks; QIC estimated 1ppt higher real rates needs 1ppt permanent lift in real earnings growth.


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