Medicare Advantage premiums expected to drop more than 16% in 2027, CMS projects

Sept 29 (Reuters) - The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services estimates the weighted average premium for Medicare Advantage (MA) plans to fall more than 16% next year.

The weighted average monthly premium across all MA plans, which include MA prescription drug plans and special needs plans, is set to decrease to $12 in 2027 from $14.37 in 2026, the agency said in a release on Monday.

MA plans cover Americans aged 65 years and older. Health insurers offering these plans have exited less-profitable markets due to rising costs.

The data is the first look ahead of the Medicare Open Enrollment, starting October 15 through December 7, 2026.

It reflects how insurers plan premiums, deductibles and maximum out-of-pocket benefit levels of 2027, and includes details of the counties in which each plan will be offered.

Based on plan projections, enrollment is estimated to be 34 million in 2027, representing 47.4% of all people enrolled in Medicare. The agency said it expects enrollment to ultimately be higher than these estimates.

"The 2027 picture remains largely flattish, as most plans are looking to recover margins, with growth less of a focus," said Oppenheimer analyst Michael Wiederhorn.

Humana HUM.N, according to Wall Street analysts, reduced its plan footprint more than peers. Barclays estimated 3,995 gross plan exits affecting 942,000 members, or 19% of retail MA membership.

UnitedHealth UNH.N and CVS Health CVS.N also reduced their plan offerings, while Elevance's ELV.N footprint was largely stable.

The companies did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.

CMS also said average prescription drug premiums in MA is projected to plummet 38%, whereas average premium for standalone Part D plans, which provide coverage for prescription drugs, is likely to rise by less than $1 per month in 2027.

More than 99% of Medicare beneficiaries will have access to at least one MA plan, while 97% will have access to 10 or more options, according to the agency.