LIVE MARKETS-Two-fer Tuesday: Home sales tick up, small business sentiment sours

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TWO-FER TUESDAY: HOME SALES TICK UP, SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT SOURS

It seems to be an unwritten rule: Tuesdays often offer economic indicators in twos. Today's data duet offered investors data from housing market and small businesses.

Starting with the former, the sales of pre-owned U.S. homes USEHS=ECI unexpectedly increased by 1.5% in September to 3.99 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The number marks a partial recovery from August's downwarly revised 3.2% decline and lands 40,000 north of consensus.

Digging into the foundation, single-family home sales — which represented about 91% of the total — rose by 2.0%. The volatile condo/co-op segment retreated by 2.8%, extending the prior month's 2.7% drop.

NAR shows a 1.9% monthly increase in homes on the market. At September's accelerated sales pace, it would still take 4.8 months to sell every home on the market, unchanged from August.

The increase occurs against a backdrop of cooling borrowing costs. In the Mortgage Bankers Association's most recent weekly report, the average 30-year fixed contract rate currently sits at 7.5%, the highest it's been since November 2023.

But lest we get too excited, despite the seasonally-adjusted gain, "August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year,” writes Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home."

The mood among small business owners in the U.S. ticked lower in September, logging the seventh monthly decline in the last 12 months, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

NFIB's Optimism Index USOPIN=ECI gave up 0.8 points to land at 97.9, dipping just a hair below 98, its 51-year average.

"Small business owners are proceeding with caution as they interpret how rising costs, interest rates, and the difficulty in finding qualified employees are impacting their business,” writes NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg.

Under the hood, the uncertainty index rose one point to print at an even 90, well above its historical average of 68, while the inability to find qualified workers was identified as the most pressing problem for three months running.

Inflation concerns increased and expectations for near-term business conditions soured. Respondents' assessment of the health of their own businesses turned negative and reported inventory gains touched a two-year low.

Following poor labor quality, inflation was flagged as the "most important problem," followed by taxes and poor sales.

Beyond that, some analysts are questioning the validity of the NFIB's data, given the plunging survey participation rate.

"The number of responses the survey typically receives has plunged in recent years, raising big questions over its reliability," says Oliver Allen, senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "A mere 411 companies responded in September, representing a response rate of just 8.2%."

Of interest to the Fed: plans to hike prices are on the rise.

"(The) survey points to renewed price pressure on small firms," says Sara Godfrey, associate US economist at Oxford Economics. "We expect that higher-for-longer global energy prices will keep inflation elevated in the near term, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates again in October."

Investors are reminded that NFIB is a politically active membership organization whose PAC skews heavily Republican, according to the Center for Responsive Politics/opensecrets.org.

(Stephen Culp)

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