GLOBAL MARKETS-Equities little changed as oil rallies while earnings, inflation loom

By Reuters News

By Sinéad Carew and Danilo Masoni

- MSCI's global equities gauge was down slightly on Monday while the dollar advanced and oil prices climbed as attacks on Saudi Arabia overshadowed hopes for supply improvements after US President Donald Trump hailed fresh Russian diesel exports and a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.

While the US bond market was closed for the Columbus Day holiday, investors were cautiously waiting for September inflation data and the third-quarter earnings season, which kicks off on Tuesday with earnings from major US banks.

"There's a lot to be wary of," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management. "You're walking down a train line and you don't know, because it's dark, if a train is coming and so, you know, you're just being real careful right today."

And besides the wait for earnings and economic data, Pavlik noted that stocks were also "being kept in check because of higher oil" and a lack of direction from the bond market, which tends to influence stocks and other assets.

US Treasury yields hit 24-year highs this month as high energy costs fueled concerns that inflation could stay elevated, keeping policymakers hawkish and pressuring equity valuations.

On Wall Street at 10:43 a.m. ET (1443 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 248.59 points, or 0.49%, to 51,907.31, the S&P 500 .SPX fell 3.84 points, or 0.05%, to 7,807.55 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC fell 90.35 points, or 0.33%, to 27,274.78.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS fell 0.68 points, or 0.06%, to 1,146.58.

However, the pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX index rose 0.61% as bank stocks gained in Europe. Also, euro zone benchmark Bund yields edged lower and French and Italian debt risk premiums fell slightly. GVD/EUR

On the earnings front, JPMorgan JPM.N and Goldman Sachs GS.N are due to report on Tuesday and Bank of America BAC.N on Wednesday.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to climb more than 30% in the third quarter, according to LSEG IBES, though the bulk of that is expected to come from the tech sector. STOXX earnings are expected to increase 21%, or 9.7% excluding the energy sector.

On the data side, rising energy costs are expected to lift the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by a hefty 0.6% to an annual 3.7%, though the core is seen cooler at 0.2% and 2.5% annually.

In currencies, the US dollar held near an 18-month high, supported by safe-haven demand as an escalating Middle East conflict kept investors cautious ahead of the inflation data.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.24% to 102.44, with the euro down 0.23% at $1.1175.

Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.23% to 158.67.

Markets imply only a 19% chance of a rate increase from the Federal Reserve this month, rising to a roughly 71% chance for a hike of 25 basis points in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Investors are also betting on hikes in the EU, Japan and Britain before the end of the year.

In energy markets, US crude rose 2.14% to $93.82 a barrel and Brent rose to $106.95 per barrel, up 2.13% on the day.

In precious metals, spot gold fell 0.62% to $4,167.98 an ounce.

Capital.com is an execution-only brokerage platform and the content provided on the Capital.com website is intended for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the products or securities to which it applies. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.

The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.

To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Capital.com (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk.

Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.