Convera weekly FX report flags dominant dollar as Treasury yields climb to multi-decade highs

By Public Technologies
  • Convera flagged equities near record highs despite multi-decade Treasury yields, Brent above $103, a surging dollar, rising geopolitical risk.
  • Fed minutes kept another hike in play, with markets pricing a 20% chance this month, one fully priced by year-end.
  • French fiscal worries drove the OAT-Bund spread near 150 bp, pressuring the euro to its lowest since May 2025.
  • Dollar strength persisted to fresh 18-month highs on yield support, risk fragility, US exceptionalism, elevated term premia.
  • US CPI is the key trigger, with upside risk seen reinforcing hike bets, downside risk seen prompting profit-taking.


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