CEE MARKETS-Crown looks to rebound as FX take in inflation data
PRAGUE, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The Czech crown edged higher on Tuesday after falling in the last two sessions as most central European currencies drifted, with markets digesting Czech and Romanian inflation data and looking toward CPI data from the United States on Wednesday.
Czech headline inflation last month was confirmed at 2.5%, according to statistics office data on Tuesday, keeping an interest rate hike on the table.
"Rising global energy prices and fresh lows in EUR/USD point to continued pressure on emerging markets today, supporting our bearish view on CEE currencies," analysts at ING said.
"The Czech crown remains the exception: a hawkish inflation breakdown could provide a catalyst, while we still see 24.250 as fair value given current hawkish rate pricing."
The crown was up a tad at 24.3610 per euro at 0826 GMT.
Focus is on core inflation data later in the session as some analysts expect the Czech National Bank could again opt for an interest rate hike in November; the bank last raised rates in June, and has kept the option open for more tightening.
Romania's annual consumer price inflation rose more than expected in September and the central bank was seen holding interest rates well into 2027 as limited power supply after a drought and a weaker currency fed into price growth.
The leu was stable around 5.3330 per euro, while the Hungarian forint gained 0.2% to 364.39 per euro.
"...there could be one thing supporting (the forint), that foreign investors could be preparing for the release of the 2027 budget next week and are positioning for that being positive for the forint," an FX trader in Budapest said, adding a weaker dollar was also helping the local currency.
"If the budget looks credible and it can show a credible path towards cutting the deficit and joining the eurozone, that could help the forint. However, I think that will be temporary, news of the wars and global developments will soon take over again."
The Polish zloty stood at 4.3830 per euro, a touch higher on the day, with investors focusing on geopolitics and technical aspects.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1026 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Czech crown | 24.3610 | 24.3740 | +0.05% | -0.80% | |
Hungary forint | 364.3900 | 365.2500 | +0.24% | +5.48% | |
Polish zloty | 4.3830 | 4.3855 | +0.06% | -3.82% | |
Romanian leu | 5.3330 | 5.3310 | -0.04% | -4.48% | |
Serbian dinar | 117.3000 | 117.4200 | +0.10% | +0.00% | |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
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STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Prague | .PX | 2608.06 | 2597.7500 | +0.40% | -2.89% |
Budapest | .BUX | 143435.05 | 142940.29 | +0.35% | +29.18% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 4223.20 | 4209.17 | +0.33% | +32.64% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 33486.14 | 33253.02 | +0.70% | +37.02% |
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BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | 4.3433 | 0.0181 | +125bps | +5bps | |
Czech Rep 5-year | 4.6995 | -0.0288 | +149bps | +1bps | |
Czech Rep 10-year | 5.3343 | -0.0148 | +190bps | +3bps | |
Poland 2-year | 4.7250 | -0.0160 | +164bps | +1bps | |
Poland 5-year | 5.8980 | -0.0850 | +269bps | -5bps | |
Poland 10-year | 6.3470 | -0.0350 | +291bps | +1bps | |
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FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | , | 4.30 | 4.66 | 4.83 | 3.91 |
Poland | , | 4.27 | 4.67 | 4.83 | 3.88 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices | |||||