CEE MARKETS-Crown looks to rebound as FX take in inflation data

By Reuters News

- The Czech crown edged higher on Tuesday after falling in the last two sessions as most central European currencies drifted, with markets digesting Czech and Romanian inflation data and looking toward CPI data from the United States on Wednesday.

  • Czech headline inflation last month was confirmed at 2.5%, according to statistics office data on Tuesday, keeping an interest rate hike on the table.

  • "Rising global energy prices and fresh lows in EUR/USD point to continued pressure on emerging markets today, supporting our bearish view on CEE currencies," analysts at ING said.

  • "The Czech crown remains the exception: a hawkish inflation breakdown could provide a catalyst, while we still see 24.250 as fair value given current hawkish rate pricing."

  • The crown was up a tad at 24.3610 per euro at 0826 GMT.

  • Focus is on core inflation data later in the session as some analysts expect the Czech National Bank could again opt for an interest rate hike in November; the bank last raised rates in June, and has kept the option open for more tightening.

  • Romania's annual consumer price inflation rose more than expected in September and the central bank was seen holding interest rates well into 2027 as limited power supply after a drought and a weaker currency fed into price growth.

  • The leu was stable around 5.3330 per euro, while the Hungarian forint gained 0.2% to 364.39 per euro.

  • "...there could be one thing supporting (the forint), that foreign investors could be preparing for the release of the 2027 budget next week and are positioning for that being positive for the forint," an FX trader in Budapest said, adding a weaker dollar was also helping the local currency.

  • "If the budget looks credible and it can show a credible path towards cutting the deficit and joining the eurozone, that could help the forint. However, I think that will be temporary, news of the wars and global developments will soon take over again."

  • The Polish zloty stood at 4.3830 per euro, a touch higher on the day, with investors focusing on geopolitics and technical aspects.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1026 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Czech crown

24.3610

24.3740

+0.05%

-0.80%

Hungary forint

364.3900

365.2500

+0.24%

+5.48%

Polish zloty

4.3830

4.3855

+0.06%

-3.82%

Romanian leu

5.3330

5.3310

-0.04%

-4.48%

Serbian dinar

117.3000

117.4200

+0.10%

+0.00%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Prague

.PX

2608.06

2597.7500

+0.40%

-2.89%

Budapest

.BUX

143435.05

142940.29

+0.35%

+29.18%

Warsaw

.WIG20

4223.20

4209.17

+0.33%

+32.64%

Bucharest

.BETI

33486.14

33253.02

+0.70%

+37.02%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

4.3433

0.0181

+125bps

+5bps

Czech Rep 5-year

4.6995

-0.0288

+149bps

+1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

5.3343

-0.0148

+190bps

+3bps

Poland 2-year

4.7250

-0.0160

+164bps

+1bps

Poland 5-year

5.8980

-0.0850

+269bps

-5bps

Poland 10-year

6.3470

-0.0350

+291bps

+1bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

,

4.30

4.66

4.83

3.91

Poland

,

4.27

4.67

4.83

3.88

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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