Argentina set for near-record farm dollar windfall as global supply shocks lift grain exports

By Reuters News

By Kylie Madry

Sept 25 (Reuters) - Argentina is on track for a near-record farm export windfall next year as strong crop prices, a bumper harvest and supply disruptions in rival exporting regions boost grain shipments and hard-currency inflows, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report on Friday.

The farm sector could bring in about $40 billion in export dollars in 2027, which would be the second-highest annual total on record behind only 2022, according to the report.

  • Farm exports are Argentina's main source of foreign currency, crucial for replenishing central bank reserves, stabilizing the peso and supporting government finances.

  • Rosario projects Argentina's 2026/27 total grain harvest at 156 million metric tons, one of the largest ever.

  • International prices for corn, wheat and soy have been supported by conflict-related supply risks in the Black Sea, where disruption to Russian and Ukrainian exports has tightened availability, the report said.

  • Argentine farmers have benefited from the disruption, the exchange said in a separate report, with corn sales above 1 million tons per week for four straight weeks and wheat export commitments climbing to their highest level in five years for this point in the season.

  • Demand out of Asia has been notable, with buyers such as Indonesia turning to Argentine crops.

  • Rosario also said export tax revenue from grains and byproducts could rise to $5.48 billion in 2027, up 16% from this year, even though tax rates are due to decline.

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