Neil DennisMany clues to the likely path of global growth are on offer this week, but Thursday holds the two biggest events of the week: the UK general election and the European Central Bank's latest policy meeting.
Let's start with the election as the biggest potential market mover of the week on Thursday, although markets won't be reacting to the result until Friday.
May or Corbyn?
Stock markets, sterling and gilts are all likely to be boosted by a Conservative party win, returning Theresa May as prime minister.
Markets have been on edge in recent days as polls suggest the Labour party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, is closing in on the Tories – some say the Conservative lead is down to only 5 points.
A majority win – either way – wouldn't unsettle the markets too much, say analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
"In the case of a Labour majority, the pound could rebound, expecting a softer Brexit."
The biggest threat to market stability would be a hung parliament.
Analysts at Capital Economics say: "Delays while a new Government is formed and then difficulty passing Brexit-related legislation would eat into precious negotiating time, making it more challenging to agree a transitional deal."
European Central Bank: Mario Draghi is likely to alter the ECB's forward guidance to prepare markets for QE tapering next year - Source: ECB tightening
The ECB's announcement on Thursday is unlikely to herald any physical changes to policy – the main overnight rate left at 0% and QE also unaltered.
While maintaining its accommodative stance, many expect the board to alter the wording of its forward guidance to gently cajole markets around to the idea that it will begin to reduce its balance sheet next year.
But few expect any move on interest rates until at least 2019.
"This is slightly negative for the euro from the ECB's dovish tone and keeping options open, despite the possible change in forward guidance," say the team at BoAML.
Purchasing managers
Today is a big day for survey data on the services sectors in the UK, US and eurozone in May.
The UK services PMI surprised on the upside, rising to 55.8 in April - higher than March's 55 and consensus forecasts of a dip to 54.5.
Forecasts for May predict a slip to 55.1. A reading above 50 still indicates expansion in the sector, however.
"Unlike the manufacturing sector, which is benefiting from the weaker pound and stronger global demand, services are more dependent on UK consumer demand. So we expect the index to slip back," say analysts at HSBC.
In the US, the Institute for Supply Management's PMI rose to 57.5 in April, up from 55.2 in March and beating estimates of 55.8. Forecasts for May see the index dipping to 57.
Analysts also expect a dip in the eurozone PMI after it slowed in April to 56.2 from 56.4 in March.
Eurozone output
Wednesday sees the publication of some important measures of economic output in the eurozone.
Industrial output in Spain, retail sales in Italy, but most importantly, the final reading of first-quarter gross domestic product for the eurozone.
So far there have been no revisions to the flash estimate of 1.7% annual growth in Q1, and none are expected at this final release.
Business confidence in Germany is running high as measured by the Ifo index last month, and factory orders in the eurozone's largest economy are expected to have risen in April for a third-consecutive month.
Wednesday’s numbers are expected to show annual growth of 6.4% following March's rise of 2.3%.
UK industrial production: The data continue to tell only a patchy story of improvement - Source: GeographUK production
On Friday, we see two measures of British production for April.
After a disappointing GDP reading in the first quarter, PMI data have suggested a rebound at the start of Q2, and analysts expect this to be reflected in manufacturing output and industrial production data.
After negative monthly readings for both in March, manufacturing is expected to have grown by 0.8% in April, while industrial production is seen making a monthly gain of 0.6%.
On the same day, the UK presents April trade data.
"Despite anecdotal evidence of a boost to UK trade from the weaker currency, the data continue to tell only a patchy story of improvement," say the HSBC team.
The trade deficit of £4.9bn in March is expected to have narrowed to £3.4bn in April.
Also this week
China presents its trade balance for May on Thursday, and is seen extending its surplus to about US$50bn from $38.1bn in April.
UK house prices are under scrutiny this week. Halifax house prices are seen slowing – they grew at 3.7% in April and are expected to increase at 2.9% in May.
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors is also expected to present a picture of slowing house price growth.
