Neil DennisDon't expect any major monetary policy announcements this week as the governors, chairmen and presidents of the world's central banks are on their way to Jackson Hole, a small town in Wyoming, for the annual economic symposium.
The conference begins on Thursday, but the delegates will probably be getting in a couple of days of trout fishing before then, and digesting some of the other economic data releases on offer.
These include updates on German business and economic confidence, eurozone purchasing managers indexes, an update on UK second-quarter gross domestic product and US durable goods orders.
Economic symposium
Jackson Hole, a skiing and fly-fishing resort in the Grant Teton National Park, provides the backdrop for the biggest annual gathering of central bankers.
The theme for this year's symposium is “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy” and central bank watchers will be looking for further clues on the delegate's thinking on the course of world growth and the implications for monetary policy.
Clearly the most keenly-anticipated speeches will be those of Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, who will speak on financial stability on Friday, and European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, who also speaks on Friday.
It has already been hinted by sources known to Reuters that Draghi will not deliver any fresh policy clues at the symposium, but following minutes from the ECB's July meeting he's likely to be quizzed on any further thoughts on euro appreciation.
ECB president Mario Draghi is not expected to deliver any fresh policy clues at Jackson Hole - Source: Pixabay"The minutes of the July policy meeting, suggest there will be no fireworks from Draghi in his Jackson Hole speech, with the Bank emphasising the need for a steady approach to policy communication amid concerns about an undue strengthening of the euro," said Jessica Hinds at Capital Economics.
With Yellen's first term as Fed chair ending in early 2018, this may be her final Jackson Hole appearance and there's a faint ripple of excitement.
"There is no guarantee that she will be given another term by President Trump," says Kathleen Brooks at City Index.
"This could mean that her final appearance is either meaningless – or she could say explicitly what the Fed should do next and what the government is failing to do to help the economy."
Eurozone business activity
Purchasing managers indexes (PMI) for eurozone services and manufacturing, plus the composite index of the two are published on Wednesday.
This data for August is expected to show a slight easing in the rate of growth of business activity in both sectors, following a similar slowing in July.
"The manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low in July," says Bert Colijn, senior eurozone economist at ING.
"This false start to the quarter was also seen in other surveys, which could mean that 3Q GDP will be a touch weaker than the first half of the year."
ING believes the composite index will ease to 55.4 in August, from 55.7 in July, while the manufacturing index is seen slipping to 56.3 from 56.6 and services from 55.2 from 55.4.
Any reading above 50 denotes economic expansion, and eurozone PMIs remain at relatively robust levels.
US durable goods
Orders for long-lasting big-ticket items received a significant boost in June, one that doesn't look likely to have been repeated in July's durable goods orders data, according to analysts' estimates.
Orders of Boeing aircraft distorted June's durable goods orders data - Source: WikipediaJune's rise of 6.5% betrayed some extraordinary activity after aircraft manufacturer Boeing received nearly 200 orders at the Paris Air Show.
Without the repeat performance, the expected 4% decline in July durable goods orders will look like a bitter disappointment.
However, as Colijn at ING explains: "It is important to point out that the underlying story remains positive as indicated by the [July] ISM manufacturing report."
German confidence
Two influential surveys from economic institutions in the eurozone's largest economy are published this week: ZEW on Tuesday and IFO on Friday.
The ZEW survey measures economic sentiment among German investors and in July eased by 1.6 points but remained at high level of 86.4.
Analysts believe another slip to 85 is likely in August given the rising expectations of an ECB announcement later this year on tapering stimulus.
Professor Achim Wambach, ZEW president, says: "The outlook for the German economic growth in the coming six months continues to be positive. This is now also reflected in the survey results for the eurozone."
The IFO survey polls company executives across Germany for their overall assessment of the business climate, of current conditions, and how they expect it be in six months.
The main index climbed to a record high 116 in July, but is expected to ease back to 115.5 in August.
The best of the rest
A second estimate of UK gross domestic product on Thursday is expected to confirm annual growth of 1.7% after a quarterly rise of 0.3% in the April-June period.
Britain's CBI publishes its industrial trends survey on Tuesday, while in the US on Monday the Chicago Fed releases its national activity index, followed by a similar survey on Tuesday by the Richmond Fed.
The US housing market is also under scrutiny this week, with the house price index published on Tuesday, new home sales and mortgage applications on Wednesday and existing home sales on Thursday.
Company earnings
Corporate reporting season is slowing and in the US, MillerCoors reports quarterly numbers on Tuesday, while American Eagle Outfitters and HP are on Wednesday, with Abercrombie & Fitch and Broadcom on Thursday and Dell and United Air Lines on Friday.
In the UK, Cairn Energy, Persimmon and John Wood Group report on Tuesday, Carillion and WPP on Wednesday and Premier Oil and Hunting on Friday.
