China to add 70% of new global wind power up to 2030
08:09, 15 December 2021
China is forecast to account nearly 70% of new wind power capacity additions globally within a decade boosted by the country’s robust electricity demand.
Consulting firm Wood Mackenzie in its fourth quarter forecast expects a 69 gigawatts (GW) increase in new wind power capacity additions globally for the period of 2021 to 2030 with 48GW coming from China.
“Rapid growth in power demand driven by China’s industrial sector and the recent power shortage in September sparked China’s determination to accelerate the development of renewable energy. Hence, we have upgraded our China wind power capacity outlook,” said Wood Mackenzie research director Luke Lewandowski in a statement on Wednesday.
Vietnam, the rising star
“Acute demand for power along China’s coastline triggered a 13-GW upgrade in the offshore wind sector, largely concentrated from 2023 to 2026. The country’s commitment to net zero emissions is expected to drive 88 GW of additional offshore wind capacity between 2021 and 2030,” Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Xiaoyang Li added.
Apart from China, Vietnam is the rising star for adding new wind power capacity in Asia-Pacific. The Southeast Asian country reported a 33-fold increase in new capacity additions in just one year as developers have pushed to capitalise on the wind feed-in-tariff that expired at the end of October.
A feed-in-tariff is a policy aiming to promote investment in renewable energy in the early development stage. The scheme guarantees small renewable energy producers, such as wind and solar energy, can sell their electricity to the grid at above-market price.
Top 20 global wind power markets: new capacity 2021-2030 – Credit: Wood MackenzieJapan, on the other hand, bucked the trend in increasing capacity additions. The country dropped five positions down to 16th position in the top markets for new wind capacity rankings. Wood Mackenzie projected Japan to add 11.7GW of new capacity this decade, a 2.5GW downgrade.
Other markets
With quarter-on-quarter outlook adjustment, Wood Mackenzie expects US and Europe to contribute a combined 22GW of additional capacity to respond decarbonisation targets and expected incentive mechanisms.
Wood Mackenzie has made minimal adjustments in the quarter-on-quarter outlook for the Middle East and Africa although advancement of wind builds in South Africa, Oman, Israel, and Egypt indicate development is on pace with the forecast.
Wood Mackenzie forecast global wind power capacity is expected to grow at a cumulative annualised growth rate of 9% between 2021 and 2030. By the end of the decade, cumulative global wind power capacity is projected to hit over 1,756GW.