US natural gas slides over 5% to four-week low as mild weather forecasts weigh
By Vedika Thorat
Oct 21 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures slid more than 5% to a four-week low on Wednesday as forecasts for mild weather through early November curbed expectations for heating consumption, outweighing support from strong LNG export demand.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 17.3 cents 5.8% lower, at $2.79 per million British thermal units. The contract touched its lowest level since September 22 earlier in the session.
"If you couple higher production with a disjointed weather model outlook, there's not much of a reason here for us to be very bullish in the last 10 or so days of October as we are still injecting gas into storage," said Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis.
Residential and commercial heating accounts for a large share of US gas demand during colder months. As a result, warmer-than-normal temperatures tend to reduce consumption and pressure prices.
FORECAST SUGGESTS MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN AVERAGE
With seasonally colder weather coming, financial firm LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 106 bcfd this week to 108 bcfd in the next week.
However, next week’s forecast remains below the five-year average of 117 bcfd, suggesting temperatures will be milder than normal, meaning inventories could continue to build and weigh on prices.
LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states was down from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September to 111.5 bcfd so far in October.
"We've had very strong LNG feed gas demand over the past week or so, but it appears that the mixed weather model outlook and higher production are offsetting the export demand," DiDona added.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants were at 18.2 bcfd so far in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September and down from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Elsewhere, Europe's benchmark wholesale gas prices rose and remained close to a nearly four-year high hit in the previous session as tensions in the Middle East escalate and attacks continue on tankers trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz.NG/EU
Week ended Oct 16 Forecast | Week ended Oct 9 Actual | Year ago Oct 16 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 16 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +79 | +67 | +86 | +87 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,646 | 3,567 | 3,796 | 3,609 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +1.0% | +1.3% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.96 | 3.06 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 29.88 | 31.13 | 10.88 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 29.55 | 30.01 | 11.11 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 129 | 141 | 161 | 152 | 155 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 26 | 26 | 19 | 28 | 22 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 155 | 167 | 180 | 180 | 177 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.2 | 113.2 | 113.8 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 117.3 | 120.2 | 121.4 | 114.0 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 7.1 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 18.4 | 19.5 | 19.4 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 6.1 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 5.3 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 34.8 | 31.3 | 30.1 | 33.4 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 22.3 | 23.2 | 23.1 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 76.2 | 78.0 | 78.6 | 79.1 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 103.8 | 106.2 | 107.5 | 104.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 89 | 91 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 84 | 85 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 82 | 83 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 23 | Week ended Oct 16 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 12 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 38 | 39 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 16 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.10 | 3.28 | 3.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.74 | 1.53 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.70 | 3.74 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.57 | 1.46 | 2.12 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.64 | 2.61 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.88 | 1.71 | 2.51 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.93 | 3.70 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.73 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.86 | 1.88 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 46.00 | 45.97 | 44.36 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 79.92 | 65.63 | 57.52 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 69.88 | 64.32 | 45.49 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 43.25 | 36.33 | 26.78 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 45.21 | 42.28 | 27.16 | 28.44 | 53.02 |