US natgas prices fall 2% on rising output, milder weather forecasts
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Oct 30 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures fell 2% on Friday on rising output in recent days and forecasts for milder weather and lower demand than previously expected next week.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.4 cents, or 2%, to settle at $2.898 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the December contract, which started as the front-month at a higher price than the November contract's expiration price on Wednesday, closed at its highest price since October 20.
For the week, the contract was up about 10% after falling 15% last week.
For the month, the contract was down about 4% after rising 3% in September.
In a sign that the market is not too worried about gas supplies this winter, the premium of March 2027 futures over April 2027 futures fell to a record low of around 5 cents per mmBtu.
March is the last month of the winter season, when demand is usually high and utilities pull gas from storage to heat homes and businesses.
Analysts say March should never trade below April, the first month of the summer season, when demand is usually low and energy firms produce enough gas to inject into storage for the next winter.
The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow-maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Notably, the Amaranth hedge fund lost more than $6 billion in 2006.
The market does not appear too worried about supply meeting demand for all of next year either, with the Calendar 2027 futures strip falling to a 59-month low of $3 per mmBtu.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has slid to 112.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in both August and September.
On a daily basis, however, output has rebounded to an average of around 113.5 bcfd over the past two weeks.
With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 106.3 bcfd this week to 108.3 bcfd next week and 114.7 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants have risen to 18.4 bcfd so far in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September. That figure is still below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, meanwhile, LNG feedgas has increased to an average of around 19.2 bcfd over the past two weeks.
Week ended Oct 30 Forecast | Week ended Oct 23 Actual | Year ago Oct 30 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 30 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +74 | +80 | +39 | +61 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,798 | 3,724 | 3,910 | 3,747 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +1.4% | +1.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 34.18 | 31.96 | 10.88 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 32.03 | 32.35 | 11.11 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 155 | 161 | 167 | 163 | 226 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 21 | 21 | 26 | 35 | 17 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 176 | 182 | 193 | 198 | 243 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 113.4 | 113.6 | 113.2 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 120.3 | 120.4 | 120.6 | 114.0 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 19.4 | 19.1 | 19.6 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 7.6 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 8.1 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 32.0 | 32.2 | 31.4 | 33.4 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 23.2 | 22.8 | 22.9 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 78.7 | 78.1 | 79.3 | 79.1 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 106.9 | 106.3 | 108.3 | 104.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 87 | 86 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 83 | 83 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 84 | 83 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 30 | Week ended Oct 23 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 41 | 39 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 15 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.68 | 2.86 | 3.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.45 | 1.55 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.62 | 3.65 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.24 | 1.49 | 2.12 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.35 | 2.45 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.50 | 1.75 | 2.51 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.64 | 3.67 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.45 | 1.53 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.33 | 1.34 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 37.91 | 42.43 | 44.36 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 54.83 | 69.55 | 57.52 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 74.47 | 87.04 | 45.49 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 37.68 | 49.79 | 26.78 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 48.53 | 49.71 | 27.16 | 28.44 | 53.02 |