NAGA sees 50% chance of risk-off markets in Q4 2026

By Public Technologies
  • NAGA released its Q4 2026 market outlook, assigning a 50% probability to a risk-off environment that could drive equities lower.
  • A sustained US Dollar Index break above 102.50 would confirm further gains, putting gold, silver and risk assets under pressure.
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates in October before raising them in December; its December 9 decision is the quarter’s key event.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 85 basis points in Q3 to 5.29%, highlighting the Fed’s inflation and employment trade-off.
  • Only 46% of S&P 500 members traded above their 200-day average in early October, signaling narrow participation in the equity rally.


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