China raises 2025/26 soybean imports forecast in November
BEIJING, Nov 10 (Reuters) - China’s agriculture ministry raised its 2025/26 soybean import estimate to 111.62 million metric tons and left its 2026/27 import forecast unchanged, according to its November outlook released on Tuesday.
China’s soybean harvest is nearly complete, with above-average protein content and good overall quality, the ministry said. The US harvest is also nearing completion, and the ministry expects another record crop. Planting in Brazil is progressing smoothly and is ahead of last year’s pace. Global soybean supplies remain ample.
The ministry raised its estimate of industrial corn use by 1 million tons from its October estimate to 86 million tons, citing stronger-than-expected activity in the corn processing sector. It also raised its 2026/27 forecast for industrial corn use slightly.
The ministry cut its 2025/26 edible oil import estimate by 700,000 tons to 7.03 million tons. Persistently high international palm oil prices and weak import margins curbed palm oil purchases, while lingering disruptions to Black Sea logistics reduced sunflower oil imports.
Key numbers from the CASDE report are below.
Commodity / item | 2024/25 | 2025/26 November estimate | 2026/27 October forecast | 2026/27 November forecast | Change vs. October forecast |
Corn (Oct–Sept) | |||||
Planted acreage (mln hectares) | 44.741 | 44.961 | 45.133 | 45.133 | 0.00% |
Output (mln tons) | 294.92 | 301.24 | 306 | 306 | 0.00% |
Imports (mln tons) | 1.83 | 3.83 | 6 | 6 | 0.00% |
Consumption (mln tons) | 297.86 | 308.4 | 306.85 | 308.35 | 0.49% |
Exports (mln tons) | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00% |
Balance (mln tons) | -1.11 | -3.34 | 5.14 | 3.64 | -29.18% |
Soybeans (Oct–Sept) | |||||
Planted acreage (mln hectares) | 10.325 | 10.255 | 10.113 | 10.113 | 0.00% |
Output (mln tons) | 20.65 | 20.91 | 20.36 | 20.36 | 0.00% |
Imports (mln tons) | 109.37 | 111.62 | 95.5 | 95.5 | 0.00% |
Consumption (mln tons) | 118.56 | 121.5 | 113.96 | 113.96 | 0.00% |
Exports (mln tons) | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.00% |
Balance (mln tons) | 11.38 | 10.9 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.00% |
Cotton (Sept–Aug) | |||||
Beginning stocks (mln tons) | 8.28 | 7.88 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 0.00% |
Planted acreage (mln hectares) | 2.838 | 2.979 | 2.94 | 2.94 | 0.00% |
Output (mln tons) | 6.16 | 6.64 | 6.48 | 6.48 | 0.00% |
Imports (mln tons) | 1.06 | 1.59 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.00% |
Consumption (mln tons) | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.00% |
Exports (mln tons) | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00% |
Ending stocks (mln tons) | 7.88 | 8.3 | 8.47 | 8.47 | 0.00% |
Sugar (Oct–Sept) | |||||
Planted acreage (mln hectares) | 1.406 | 1.532 | 1.461 | 1.514 | 3.63% |
Cane acreage (mln hectares) | 1.189 | 1.301 | 1.248 | 1.345 | 7.77% |
Beet acreage (mln hectares) | 0.217 | 0.231 | 0.213 | 0.169 | -20.66% |
Output (mln tons) | 11.16 | 12.95 | 12.93 | 13.6 | 5.18% |
Cane sugar output (mln tons) | 9.6 | 11.38 | 11.43 | 12.29 | 7.52% |
Beet sugar output (mln tons) | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.5 | 1.31 | -12.67% |
Imports (mln tons) | 4.62 | 4.27 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 0.00% |
Consumption (mln tons) | 15.67 | 15.89 | 15.73 | 15.9 | 1.08% |
Exports (mln tons) | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.00% |
Balance (mln tons) | -0.05 | 1.22 | 1.82 | 2.32 | 27.47% |
Edible oils (Oct–Sept) | |||||
Output (mln tons) | 31.04 | 32.45 | 31.43 | 31.43 | 0.00% |
Soybean oil output (mln tons) | 17.74 | 18.54 | 17.17 | 17.17 | 0.00% |
Rapeseed oil output (mln tons) | 7.77 | 7.88 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 0.00% |
Peanut oil output (mln tons) | 3.82 | 3.96 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 0.00% |
Imports (mln tons) | 6.78 | 7.03 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 0.00% |
Palm oil imports (mln tons) | 2.47 | 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.00% |
Rapeseed oil imports (mln tons) | 2.17 | 1.92 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.00% |
Soybean oil imports (mln tons) | 0.3 | 0.13 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.00% |
Consumption (mln tons) | 38.13 | 38 | 37.89 | 37.89 | 0.00% |
Exports (mln tons) | 0.39 | 1.33 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.00% |
Balance (mln tons) | -0.7 | 0.15 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.00% |