A guide to swing-state energy politics ahead of US midterms: Maguire

By Gavin Maguire

LITTLETON, Colorado, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Energy inflation is squeezing battleground US voters where it hurts most: their utility meters and fuel tanks.

Households in the states most likely to decide control of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections are paying $50 to $60 more a month for power and gasoline than a year ago, highlighting a budget strain that candidates can't easily explain away.

Across Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio, combined household spending on power and motor fuel rose between 13% and 17% in the first seven months of 2026 from a year earlier, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Compared with 2019, costs are up by more than a third in every state.

That makes energy a particularly potent issue in battleground states. While a complex set of forces drives wholesale power prices and global oil markets, what voters care about is more straightforward: a larger share of their paychecks is going toward keeping the lights on and the tanks full.

In races likely to be decided by narrow margins, that financial squeeze could carry real political weight.

THE PINCH

In the first seven months of 2026, the average American household spent about $456 a month on electricity and gasoline combined, according to the EIA. That is roughly $54 a month more than a year ago, an increase of around 14%.

The swing states track that pattern closely. Monthly costs rose by $42 in Wisconsin, $50 in Michigan, $51 in Georgia, $59 in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, $60 in Ohio, $61 in Nevada and $62 in Arizona.

Two very different forces are behind the hike in energy bills. One is sudden and global, while the other is slow and local.

PAIN AT THE PUMP

The first involves the gasoline market. This is arguably the country's most politically sensitive price, as voters see the cost displayed prominently on signs along every major street.

The primary force pushing up gasoline prices this year is obvious: the US war with Iran. Since the conflict broke out on February 28 and began disrupting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pump prices have climbed to levels not seen since the summer of 2022.

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Estimated household spending on gasoline in the swing states was up 19% to 23% in the first nine months of this year, EIA data show.

In September alone, spending in Georgia, Ohio and North Carolina was about 40% higher than a year earlier, while spending in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin was up by more than a third.

Nevada households face the highest fuel bill of the eight key swing states, at roughly $360 a month this year, compared with around $300 a month in 2025.

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Georgia, on the other hand, sells some of the cheapest gasoline in the country. However, its households are also among those that drive the most, averaging around 91 gallons (345 liters) a month compared with around 66 gallons for the average US household, according to Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) data.

That higher mileage adds up, leaving Georgia households with monthly bills of around $324 this year, compared with around $260 a month in 2025. It's a reminder that cheap gas per gallon does not make for cheap motoring.

METER MOMENTUM

Electricity prices tell a different story. They have been climbing for years, largely because of decisions made closer to home.

Average residential power bills in the swing states rose between 15% and 58% since 2019, according to the EIA, and by an average of around 7% year-on-year across the eight key swing states.

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The steepest increases have been in Pennsylvania and Ohio. The typical Pennsylvania household paid about $182 a month for electricity this year, up 12% from last year and up 58% since 2019.

Pennsylvania now has the highest average power bill of the eight states, ahead of Georgia and Arizona, which have topped the list for most of the past 15 years. Ohio is not far behind, with bills up 9.4% from a year ago and up 53% since 2019.

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Both Pennsylvania and Ohio sit inside PJM, the country's largest power grid operator serving 13 states and Washington, DC. Its capacity auctions, which pay power plants to remain operational to meet future demand, have set three consecutive pricing records this year. While the upward pressure has lessened slightly in recent months, the overall annual trend is definitely higher.

Some of that reflects rising demand from data centers, but it's also been driven by grid investments, natural gas prices and power plant retirements.

Meanwhile, Michigan saw its bills rise 8% this year, as regulators approved rate hikes for utilities serving millions of customers. North Carolina's rose 6%, Wisconsin's 5% and Arizona's 5%.

Then there are the exceptions. Georgia's power bills barely moved this year, up about 1%. But that came after six rate increases in two years and a voter backlash that cost two incumbents their seats on the state's utility commission in 2025.

Nevada has the lowest power bills of the eight states, and prices have risen the least since 2019. Its rates actually fell last year, and this summer's increase came mostly from heavier air-conditioning use rather than higher prices. Massive solar farms — which can generate over half of daytime electricity supplies during the summer — have helped drive Nevada's power bills lower by displacing natural gas during daylight hours.

WHO GETS THE BLAME?

Voters tend to punish incumbents for high prices, whether or not they actually have much control over them. And this year, control is unusually fragmented.

Electricity rates are generally approved by state utility regulators. In most swing states, governors appoint those commissioners, often subject to legislative confirmation; in Georgia and Arizona, commissioners are elected.

Wholesale power costs are shaped by regional grid operators such as PJM, which answer to federal regulators. Gasoline prices are set largely by global crude markets, with state fuel taxes explaining most of the gap between prices across states.

That matters for how the results of this election should be read. The governors' races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin bear directly on electricity, as they determine who sits on the commissions that approve rate increases and how states plan for new demand.

The Senate races bear more on federal energy, trade and foreign policy, which shape what happens at the pump more broadly. State politicians are in a bit of a complicated position here, though, because they can't actually do much to address this problem. A governor can cut a state gas tax for a few months, but that obviously does not address the root problem. The policy decisions driving these price spikes are not decided in swing-state capitals, but in the nation's capital.

Many voters clearly are putting much of the blame for higher energy bills on the White House. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that some 78% of Americans blame President Donald Trump's policies for rising prices that are outpacing their earnings.

Tariffs and the Iran war bore the brunt of the blame among respondents and largely explain Trump's record low approval ratings.

Pushback against data centers has also been rising nationwide, with 77% of people polled by Reuters/Ipsos earlier this year citing concerns over rising electricity costs as a chief reason for opposing data centers.

THE AFFORDABILITY QUESTION

Swing states are, by definition, places where elections are decided at the margin. They are also, this year, places where rising energy costs are increasingly difficult to ignore.

Voters can skip a restaurant meal or an overseas vacation, but they can't skip the drive to work or turn off the air conditioning during a triple-digit Phoenix summer.

And no relief is in sight. Electricity costs continue to be pulled higher by rising consumption from tech firms and manufacturers as well as grid upgrades by utilities, while gasoline remains hostage to events in the Middle East.

Whoever wins in the midterm elections this coming week will inherit these bills, though their ability to do much about them will be limited.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

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